Bout that time for the newest edition of the GTS fight predictions. UFC 126 is one of the most stacked cards I've seen in awhile and I am thoroughly excited to watch the action this Saturday. On to my picks...
Demetrious Johnson vs. Kid Yamamoto: I'm very excited to see Kid make his UFC debut, and I'm very happy the UFC decided to air it on Facebook. That being said, I'm not sure I see Kid getting the win here. Johnson, despite his smaller stature, has looked very good as of late, especially in submission victory over Damacio Page. Kid hasn't fought since May in a victory over 4-3 Frederico Lopez, which was his first win since 2007. I just think Kid's best days are behind him and we'll see that as Johnson grinds out an impressive, one-sided decision.
Chad Mendes vs. Michihiro Omigawa: It's funny to think that back in 2008 I watched Omigawa lose a fairly boring decision to Thiago Tavares and his job in the UFC. Fast forward to 2011 and Omigawa has dropped to 145, won 8 of his last 11 fights, and has a 5 fight win streak going. Mendes is a member of Team Alpha Male and has used his smothering wrestling to maintain an undefeated recorded and earn 4 victories in the WEC. Omigawa has certainly turned his career around since his first run in the UFC, but Mendes is quickly becoming the Sherk or Fitch of his weight class. His methods and wins aren't exciting, but they're effective and I think those methods will be able to smother Omigawa en route to a decision victory.
Paul Kelly vs. Donald Cerrone: Cerrone is taking this fight on short notice and is getting a nice little test right out of the gate with Paul Kelly. Cerrone is the much longer fighter and will likely have the advantage in the stand up department. Kelly has pretty good takedowns and grond and pound, but Cerrone has really worked on his takedown defense, is good with submission off his back, and has added takedowns to his own arsenal. Basically, Cerrone is just a little better than Kelly in just about every department and it will earn him a late TKO or submission victory.
Antonio Banuelos vs. Miguel Torres: Let's be honest from the get go, this fight was set up to be Torres's UFC coming out party. Banuelos is a game opponent as he's pretty happy to stand and trade with an opponent, which is exactly why he was matched up with Torres. Torres will use his reach advantage and pinpoint striking to pick Banuelos apart and take a TKO victory or a commanding decision win.
Ryan Bader vs. Jon Jones: Aside from the main event, this is the fight that I am most excited for. Both guys are up and comers in the weight class and are looking to break into the top ten and start making noise for title shots. Bader is coming off the biggest win of his career over Little Nog at 119 and Jones most recently ran through the Janitor at UFC on VS 2. The only loss between the two is Jones's DQ loss to Matt Hammill in a fight that Jones was absolutely dominating before making the mistake with the downward elbows. Jones is freakishly long and is the better striker, so I'll think he'll pick Bader apart if the fight stays standing. Bader is very strong physically and is likely the better traditional wrestler, so it'll be interesting to see if he can put Jones on his back and keep him there. Jones's takedowns are far more creative and unorthodox, so I'm curious to see if Jones will take Bader down and see if Bader can do anything off of his back. When it comes down to making a decision, though, I can't help but go with Jones. I think his striking is worlds better than Bader's and I don't think Bader's wrestling is going to be a major difference maker. Jones is a fantastic wrestler himself, and is also good with submissions, and on top of that I think his cardio is going to be significantly better. In Bader's fights that we've seen him go three rounds, it was apparent that the longer the fight goes, the more tired he gets and the lower his hands drop. Jones may have to weather an early storm, but as the fight goes on Bader will start to wilt and Jones will finish him on the feet.
Jake Ellenberger vs. Carlos Eduardo Rocha: I can't say too much here as I've only seen Rocha fight once and it was a quick submission victory. Ellenberger has impressed the hell out of me as of late and I think his wrestling and ground and pound will earn him a definitive TKO victory.
Rich Franklin vs. Forrest Griffin: I have no idea who to pick in this fight. Griffin hasn't fought since UFC 106 in a split decision victory over Tito Ortiz and before that he was smashed by Rashad Evans and Anderson Silva. Franklin most recently KO'd Chuck Liddell at UFC 115, but it wasn't his most impressive showing as he was rocked and dropped several times. Franklin's key to victory is to keep his distance and pick apart Griffin with his cleaner striking. Griffin's key to victory is to use his size, press Franklin up against the cage in the clinch and eventually put Franklin on his back. This fight is a coin flip for me, but I'm going to guess that ring rust will be a factor and Franklin will be able to peck away at Griffin and earn a decision victory.
Anderson Silva vs. Vitor Belfort: I have to admit that this fight didn't have me too excited until I watched the weigh-ins. Belfort hasn't fought since UFC 103 when he KO'd Rich Franklin, so he's going to have some ring rust, and on top of that I read that he had to cut 30lbs for this fight, so I was thinking that this fight could end up being very one-sided in Silva's favor. After I watched the weigh-ins, though, and they both got in each others faces and start shit-talking I got goosebumps. These guys genuinely do not like each other and I think it's going to show in this fight. Silva looked awful in his last fight against Sonnen up until the miracle submission, but hopefully he's recovered from any injuries and is in top shape, otherwise Belfort could have a serious chance. Both men are feared strikers, but Silva is a little more varied and volume-based while Belfort is all about power. I'm going with Silva to win by TKO as I think he'll be able to pick his spots when Belfort goes from the home run swing, but if Belfort can put the pressure on Silva early, he very well could walk away with a devastating KO win.
As always thanks for checking out my blog and be sure to follow me on Twitter @JustinCohee.
Thursday, February 3, 2011
Monday, January 24, 2011
UFC Fight for the Troops 2: Post Fight Thoughts
This past Saturday the UFC held another Fight for the Troops event to benefit wounded soldiers. I commend the UFC for putting together such events and apparently they raised well over a million dollars to go towards treating soldiers with serious head injuries. Now onto the fights....
Charlie Brenneman vs. Amilcar Alves: Not much to comment about this fight. Brenneman is a stellar wrestler and he used to it to constantly ground Alves and wear him out with top control and ground and pound.
Waylon Lowe vs. Willemy Freire: See comments from Brenneman fight.
Rani Yahya vs. Mike Brown: When the tale of the tape came up on the screen I made the comment that I had no idea Mike Brown was 35 years old. Despite his age I felt like Brown was going to walk through Yahya thanks to his superior striking. I also thought that Brown's strength would allow him to get out of any trouble he got into on the mat. Boy was I wrong. Brown played right into Yahya's gameplan and was simply outgrappled for three rounds. Brown really didn't offer anything in this fight and I worry that his days as an elite fighter are behind him.
DaMarques Johnson vs. Mike Guymon: I don't know how Johnson didn't win submission of the night. Body triangle subs are pretty rare and are pretty friggin sweet. Johnson is one of those guys who will continue to put on good fights, but will never really crack into the elite. I'd love to see the guy fight Matt Brown. For those of you who didn't see the post-fight backstage video, Mike Guymon seemingly retired from fighting in a pretty heart-breaking moment. Best of luck to whatever he chooses to do from here.
Yves Edwards vs. Cody McKenzie: A lot of people are giving McKenzie some love for hanging tough in this fight. I on the other, hand feel as if that praise is unjustified. Edwards destroyed McKenzie on the feet and even when McKenzie got Edwards down to the mat his ground work seemed sloppy. He even took Edwards's back several times and could do nothing with the position despite being touted as some ground expert. In the end Edwards got the better of McKenzie and choked him unconscious with a rear naked choke.
Matt Wiman vs. Cole Miller: I wasn't all that excited for this fight but was immediately intrigued when Wiman and Miller were talking shit to each other from across the cage. As for the fight, all I can say is wow. I've always been kind of "eh" in regards to Matt Wiman. I've never really been particularly impressed with anything he's done aside from get knocked out by Spencer Fisher, but he looked like an absolute animal in this fight. Miller looked like he got hit early in the 1st and was shook for the rest of the fight. From there it was all Wiman dominating with some brutal ground and pound.
Pat Barry vs. Joey Beltran: Not the coming out party it should have been for Barry, but a win is a win I suppose. Barry definitely had a look in his eyes that he was going to be more aggressive and look for the finish, but unfortunately that didn't translate into smart fighting. Barry was getting hit with a lot of punches when Beltran threw wild combos, and when Barry had Beltran hurt with the legs kicks he didn't continue to throw them. Barry is a talented fighter but he barely got past a mediocre heavyweight at best and even then he didn't look all that impressive.
Mark Hominick vs. George Roop: The only thing I got out of this fight was ... well there's Jose Aldo's next victim.
Matt Mitrione vs. Tim Hague: I understand that a lot of people think it's a little too late for Mitrione to be a top-level fighter due to his age and lack of experience, but I still have high hopes for the guy. He's aggressive, he's athletic as hell, and he has some big power. Hague isn't a UFC caliber fighter, but he's definitely a step up over guys like Big Baby and Kimbo and Mitrione still passed the test with flying colors. I'm very excited to see this guy take a step up in competition and I think he'll do very well.
Melvin Guillard vs. Evan Dunham: Holy shit that was one hell of a beating. Dunham is fairly notorious for being a slow starter and he certainly paid for it in this fight. Guillard has improved leaps and bounds since his early days, but I think any mention of him getting near a title shot is way way way premature. I still have memories of the guy getting handled by grapplers, so I'd like to see him get by a high level grappler before we start talking about his chances of wearing gold.
Charlie Brenneman vs. Amilcar Alves: Not much to comment about this fight. Brenneman is a stellar wrestler and he used to it to constantly ground Alves and wear him out with top control and ground and pound.
Waylon Lowe vs. Willemy Freire: See comments from Brenneman fight.
Rani Yahya vs. Mike Brown: When the tale of the tape came up on the screen I made the comment that I had no idea Mike Brown was 35 years old. Despite his age I felt like Brown was going to walk through Yahya thanks to his superior striking. I also thought that Brown's strength would allow him to get out of any trouble he got into on the mat. Boy was I wrong. Brown played right into Yahya's gameplan and was simply outgrappled for three rounds. Brown really didn't offer anything in this fight and I worry that his days as an elite fighter are behind him.
DaMarques Johnson vs. Mike Guymon: I don't know how Johnson didn't win submission of the night. Body triangle subs are pretty rare and are pretty friggin sweet. Johnson is one of those guys who will continue to put on good fights, but will never really crack into the elite. I'd love to see the guy fight Matt Brown. For those of you who didn't see the post-fight backstage video, Mike Guymon seemingly retired from fighting in a pretty heart-breaking moment. Best of luck to whatever he chooses to do from here.
Yves Edwards vs. Cody McKenzie: A lot of people are giving McKenzie some love for hanging tough in this fight. I on the other, hand feel as if that praise is unjustified. Edwards destroyed McKenzie on the feet and even when McKenzie got Edwards down to the mat his ground work seemed sloppy. He even took Edwards's back several times and could do nothing with the position despite being touted as some ground expert. In the end Edwards got the better of McKenzie and choked him unconscious with a rear naked choke.
Matt Wiman vs. Cole Miller: I wasn't all that excited for this fight but was immediately intrigued when Wiman and Miller were talking shit to each other from across the cage. As for the fight, all I can say is wow. I've always been kind of "eh" in regards to Matt Wiman. I've never really been particularly impressed with anything he's done aside from get knocked out by Spencer Fisher, but he looked like an absolute animal in this fight. Miller looked like he got hit early in the 1st and was shook for the rest of the fight. From there it was all Wiman dominating with some brutal ground and pound.
Pat Barry vs. Joey Beltran: Not the coming out party it should have been for Barry, but a win is a win I suppose. Barry definitely had a look in his eyes that he was going to be more aggressive and look for the finish, but unfortunately that didn't translate into smart fighting. Barry was getting hit with a lot of punches when Beltran threw wild combos, and when Barry had Beltran hurt with the legs kicks he didn't continue to throw them. Barry is a talented fighter but he barely got past a mediocre heavyweight at best and even then he didn't look all that impressive.
Mark Hominick vs. George Roop: The only thing I got out of this fight was ... well there's Jose Aldo's next victim.
Matt Mitrione vs. Tim Hague: I understand that a lot of people think it's a little too late for Mitrione to be a top-level fighter due to his age and lack of experience, but I still have high hopes for the guy. He's aggressive, he's athletic as hell, and he has some big power. Hague isn't a UFC caliber fighter, but he's definitely a step up over guys like Big Baby and Kimbo and Mitrione still passed the test with flying colors. I'm very excited to see this guy take a step up in competition and I think he'll do very well.
Melvin Guillard vs. Evan Dunham: Holy shit that was one hell of a beating. Dunham is fairly notorious for being a slow starter and he certainly paid for it in this fight. Guillard has improved leaps and bounds since his early days, but I think any mention of him getting near a title shot is way way way premature. I still have memories of the guy getting handled by grapplers, so I'd like to see him get by a high level grappler before we start talking about his chances of wearing gold.
Sunday, January 16, 2011
MMA Mind Dump
Well once again work and other things have kept me from posting as much as I would like. This is just going to have to be one of those things where my levels of effort making need to rise and I promise that is what I'll do. Since a lot has gone on in MMA since my last post I'm just going to post a bunch of quick thoughts and come back with some more well-planned and detailed articles, as well as some contributions from Billy and Brian.
The Strikeforce Heavyweight tournament rules have been announced and I think the biggest surprise is that Overeem's title will not be on the line. The winner of the tournament will get a shot at Overeem's title, which seems silly to me considering Overeem could win the tournament, thus leaving no title match to set up, or Overeem could not win the tournament, meaning he lost a fight at some point yet remained champion. The Strikeforce Heavyweight title doesn't have much legitimacy as is, and this set up could only make things worse.
Junior Dos Santos and Brock Lesnar will be the coaches on the next season of the Ultimate Fighter, which will be an all welterweight season. The coaches will then fight at the end of the season to determine who will face Cain Velasquez for the UFC Heavyweight Title when the champ returns from injury. I have two thoughts when it comes to this decision: 1) It's a brilliant move by the UFC to put Lesnar in as a coach. While he is still fairly new to the sport he will bring monster ratings to a show in need of help and just because he has limited experience, he will bring a stellar cast of assistant coaches from the Minnesota Mixed Martial Arts Academy. 2) I'm not sure why Lesnar is getting the chance for another title show so soon, especially since he lost the title in a very one-sided fight. Also, if we learned anything in the fight between Cain and Brock it was that Brock doesn't take a punch to well. Not being able to react well to getting hit is something that might come back to bite Lesnar once again as he will be facing the UFC's most dangerous heavyweight striker.
Earlier this week I bought a ticket to UFC 128 which will take place in Newark, New Jersey, and will feature a Light-Heavyweight Title fight between Shogun Rua and Rashad Evans, Urijah Faber's UFC debut against Eddie Wineland, Brendan Schaub versus Mirko Cro Cop, Jim Miller versus Kamal Shalorus, and Yoshihiro Akiyama versus Nate Marquardt. I'll be tweeting live during the fights so be sure to follow me at @JustinCohee.
Rumors have been going around that Shinya Aoki is considering retiring from MMA after his KO loss to kickboxer Yuichiro Nagashima in an exhibition match at K-1 Dynamite!!! 2010. Aoki has always had a bit of an attitude problem, so hearing this really doesn't surprise me, but I'll be shocked if he actually goes through with it. Aoki didn't seem to take the fight to seriously and he paid for it, but I have trouble believing he'll end his career on such a sour note.
Shane Carwin is set to return to the UFC after successful neck surgery at UFC 131. Carwin's opponent has yet to be announced, but options are looking limited. Lesnar and Dos Santos are obviously tied up with each other, Carwin already walked through Frank Mir, and Roy Nelson is rumored to be facing Mir next anyways. Carwin is coming off a loss, but it only came after he dominated the then-champ for a round. I'd like to see Carwin take on Cheick Kongo next. Most of the top guys are already tied up and a fight with the imposing Kongo would be easy to sell. Kongo isn't my favorite fighter in the world, but it's hard to deny that he's a talented striker with big power.
The Strikeforce Heavyweight tournament rules have been announced and I think the biggest surprise is that Overeem's title will not be on the line. The winner of the tournament will get a shot at Overeem's title, which seems silly to me considering Overeem could win the tournament, thus leaving no title match to set up, or Overeem could not win the tournament, meaning he lost a fight at some point yet remained champion. The Strikeforce Heavyweight title doesn't have much legitimacy as is, and this set up could only make things worse.
Junior Dos Santos and Brock Lesnar will be the coaches on the next season of the Ultimate Fighter, which will be an all welterweight season. The coaches will then fight at the end of the season to determine who will face Cain Velasquez for the UFC Heavyweight Title when the champ returns from injury. I have two thoughts when it comes to this decision: 1) It's a brilliant move by the UFC to put Lesnar in as a coach. While he is still fairly new to the sport he will bring monster ratings to a show in need of help and just because he has limited experience, he will bring a stellar cast of assistant coaches from the Minnesota Mixed Martial Arts Academy. 2) I'm not sure why Lesnar is getting the chance for another title show so soon, especially since he lost the title in a very one-sided fight. Also, if we learned anything in the fight between Cain and Brock it was that Brock doesn't take a punch to well. Not being able to react well to getting hit is something that might come back to bite Lesnar once again as he will be facing the UFC's most dangerous heavyweight striker.
Earlier this week I bought a ticket to UFC 128 which will take place in Newark, New Jersey, and will feature a Light-Heavyweight Title fight between Shogun Rua and Rashad Evans, Urijah Faber's UFC debut against Eddie Wineland, Brendan Schaub versus Mirko Cro Cop, Jim Miller versus Kamal Shalorus, and Yoshihiro Akiyama versus Nate Marquardt. I'll be tweeting live during the fights so be sure to follow me at @JustinCohee.
Rumors have been going around that Shinya Aoki is considering retiring from MMA after his KO loss to kickboxer Yuichiro Nagashima in an exhibition match at K-1 Dynamite!!! 2010. Aoki has always had a bit of an attitude problem, so hearing this really doesn't surprise me, but I'll be shocked if he actually goes through with it. Aoki didn't seem to take the fight to seriously and he paid for it, but I have trouble believing he'll end his career on such a sour note.
Shane Carwin is set to return to the UFC after successful neck surgery at UFC 131. Carwin's opponent has yet to be announced, but options are looking limited. Lesnar and Dos Santos are obviously tied up with each other, Carwin already walked through Frank Mir, and Roy Nelson is rumored to be facing Mir next anyways. Carwin is coming off a loss, but it only came after he dominated the then-champ for a round. I'd like to see Carwin take on Cheick Kongo next. Most of the top guys are already tied up and a fight with the imposing Kongo would be easy to sell. Kongo isn't my favorite fighter in the world, but it's hard to deny that he's a talented striker with big power.
Friday, December 31, 2010
UFC 125 Picks
What's up guys, here are my picks for UFC 125!! Since ION is airing a bunch of the prelims I'll just fire off a bunch of quick picks versus my usual longer discussion of fewer fights.
Phil Baroni vs. Brad Tavares: If Baroni wants to win this fight he'll have to do so some time in the 1st round. I commend Baroni's attempts to revitalize his career by spending time in Thailand, but his gas tank has been and probably always will be his weakness. Tavares is younger and likely a little more well-rounded. I'll take Tavares by UD.
Josh Grispi vs. Dustin Poirier: This is Grispi's fight to lose as he is being groomed for his eventual title shot against Jose Aldo. I haven't seen Poirier fight so it's tough for me to make a fair assessment, but Grispi has a lot of tools to win and I think he'll continue his string of submission victories.
Marcus Davis vs. Jeremy Stephens: I've been reading a lot of predicitions on the web and I'm surprised as to how few people are picking Davis to win. Stephens has balls out power, but Davis packs quite a punch himself and it much more technically sound in my opinion, and we that Stephens can fall victim to technique in the fight with Guillard. This will be Davis's first fight at 155, so the cut could drain him, but I'm taking Davis by UD.
Takanori Gomi vs. Clay Guida: This is the fight I'm having the most trouble picking a winner for. Gomi has tons of power in his hands and also has good wrestling. Guida will be the better wrestler, but his short reach really limits his striking. I'm leaning to wards Guida as I think takedowns and GnP will play a difference, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Gomi pull out the win.
Nate Diaz vs. Dong Hyun Kim: This is a tough tough fight for Diaz and will be his first real test against a 170 fighter who plays right into his weakness. Diaz has trouble guys who can take him down and utilize smothering top control, and that exactly what Kim loves to do. Diaz's striking has come a long way since his UFC debut, and he's always dangerous with submission, but I think Kim will be too strong for Diaz to shake off the top. I'm taking Kim by UD.
Thiago Silva vs. Brandon Vera: Pretty funny how had this fight occurred a year or two ago it could have been for a title shot, but now it could be for jobs. Both men are dangerous strikers, but Vera has seemed to lose his edge and is hesitant to pull the trigger. Silva can be a force, but injuries have hampered him in the past and who knows if he is fully recovered. Both men are so-so on the mat, but Silva's GnP is just vicious. I'll take Silva via TKO just because I think Vera is a bust.
Chris Leben vs. Brian Stann: So Leben asks for Wanderlei Silva and gets Brian Stann. I'm not too excited for this fight as I was hoping to see Leben take some leaps in competition, and I think this is Leben's fight to lose. Both men prefer to keep fights standing, and while Leben will take some damage, his granite chin will keep him upright. Stann has been dropped and finished before and if he trades with Leben enough it'll happen again. I'll take Leben via UD or late TKO.
Frankie Edgar vs. Gray Maynard: As much as I hate to say it, I don't see this fight going much differently than the first one. Edgar has definitely progressed more as a fighter, but Maynard's strength and wrestling are just extremely difficult to deal with. Edgar could shock the would once again and pepper Maynard with shots as he did with Sherk and Penn, but I look for the Bully to continually take Edgar down and grind out one of his typical decision wins.
Phil Baroni vs. Brad Tavares: If Baroni wants to win this fight he'll have to do so some time in the 1st round. I commend Baroni's attempts to revitalize his career by spending time in Thailand, but his gas tank has been and probably always will be his weakness. Tavares is younger and likely a little more well-rounded. I'll take Tavares by UD.
Josh Grispi vs. Dustin Poirier: This is Grispi's fight to lose as he is being groomed for his eventual title shot against Jose Aldo. I haven't seen Poirier fight so it's tough for me to make a fair assessment, but Grispi has a lot of tools to win and I think he'll continue his string of submission victories.
Marcus Davis vs. Jeremy Stephens: I've been reading a lot of predicitions on the web and I'm surprised as to how few people are picking Davis to win. Stephens has balls out power, but Davis packs quite a punch himself and it much more technically sound in my opinion, and we that Stephens can fall victim to technique in the fight with Guillard. This will be Davis's first fight at 155, so the cut could drain him, but I'm taking Davis by UD.
Takanori Gomi vs. Clay Guida: This is the fight I'm having the most trouble picking a winner for. Gomi has tons of power in his hands and also has good wrestling. Guida will be the better wrestler, but his short reach really limits his striking. I'm leaning to wards Guida as I think takedowns and GnP will play a difference, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Gomi pull out the win.
Nate Diaz vs. Dong Hyun Kim: This is a tough tough fight for Diaz and will be his first real test against a 170 fighter who plays right into his weakness. Diaz has trouble guys who can take him down and utilize smothering top control, and that exactly what Kim loves to do. Diaz's striking has come a long way since his UFC debut, and he's always dangerous with submission, but I think Kim will be too strong for Diaz to shake off the top. I'm taking Kim by UD.
Thiago Silva vs. Brandon Vera: Pretty funny how had this fight occurred a year or two ago it could have been for a title shot, but now it could be for jobs. Both men are dangerous strikers, but Vera has seemed to lose his edge and is hesitant to pull the trigger. Silva can be a force, but injuries have hampered him in the past and who knows if he is fully recovered. Both men are so-so on the mat, but Silva's GnP is just vicious. I'll take Silva via TKO just because I think Vera is a bust.
Chris Leben vs. Brian Stann: So Leben asks for Wanderlei Silva and gets Brian Stann. I'm not too excited for this fight as I was hoping to see Leben take some leaps in competition, and I think this is Leben's fight to lose. Both men prefer to keep fights standing, and while Leben will take some damage, his granite chin will keep him upright. Stann has been dropped and finished before and if he trades with Leben enough it'll happen again. I'll take Leben via UD or late TKO.
Frankie Edgar vs. Gray Maynard: As much as I hate to say it, I don't see this fight going much differently than the first one. Edgar has definitely progressed more as a fighter, but Maynard's strength and wrestling are just extremely difficult to deal with. Edgar could shock the would once again and pepper Maynard with shots as he did with Sherk and Penn, but I look for the Bully to continually take Edgar down and grind out one of his typical decision wins.
Tuesday, December 14, 2010
UFC 124 Post Fight Thoughts
Mark Bocek vs. Dustin Hazelett: Billy and I talked about this fight a little a few months ago when we tried to tape a conversation, and I picked Bocek from the start. Hazelett is flashy on the ground and can catch less talented fighters, but Bocek is much more technically sound. What we saw Saturday was a guy who uses his flashy rubber guard get easily subbed by a guy with sound fundamentals. Bocek calling Sotiropoulos out was weird since he's slated to face Siver in Australia, so I'd give Bocek Oliveira or a rematch with Jim Miller.
Thiago Alves vs. John Howard: Basically and very talented muay thai fighter versus a mediocre muay thai fighter. Alves looked like he was in amazing shape thanks to the Dolce diet and put on one of the best performances of his career. Howard isn't going to be much more then a mid level guy so he can get a new fighter to the UFC to bounce back. As for Alves I say give him another stand up fight and put him in the cage with Dan Hardy.
Mac Danzig vs. Joe Stevenson: Wow who saw that coming? I still want to see both guys go down to 145, but I imagine they'll both stick around at 155. Joe Stevenson vs. Tyson Griffin makes sense as they're both on losing skids but are fairly popular fighters. I'd like to see Danzig take on Terry Etim to see if he's truly turned his career around.
Jim Miller vs. Charles Oliveira: I picked Miller to win, but I certainly did believe that he would tap the young black belt prospect so quickly. Oliveira really impressed me with his off the back offense, but I think he severely underestimated Miller's ground game and thought he'd be able to cruise to an easy win. Big win for Miller and a title shot could be within his grasp if he can manage one more big win against someone like Sean Sherk.
Stefan Struve vs. Sean McCorkle: I could have cared less about this fight. Big tall guy beats up gassed out tall guy. The end.
GSP vs. Josh Koscheck: Holy ass beating Batman. I know people have been giving GSP crap for being too boring and relying on his wrestling too much, but seriously, when did anyone ever think that Koscheck was a better boxer. Koscheck's stand up is mediocre at best thanks to his leaping jabs and predictable overhand right. GSP was a stellar kickboxer to begin with and his time with Freddie Roach has obviously helped his overall game as evidenced by the jab that literally broke Koscheck's face. Aside from Jake Shields GSP has cleaned out the division and I don't think Shields really offers anything that GSP can't handle, especially looking back on the beating GSP put on Jon Fitch (yes I think Fitch is better). Koscheck has a broken orbital bone so he'll be out for awhile, and after GSP embarrasses Shields I think it'll be time for him to make the move to 185.
Thiago Alves vs. John Howard: Basically and very talented muay thai fighter versus a mediocre muay thai fighter. Alves looked like he was in amazing shape thanks to the Dolce diet and put on one of the best performances of his career. Howard isn't going to be much more then a mid level guy so he can get a new fighter to the UFC to bounce back. As for Alves I say give him another stand up fight and put him in the cage with Dan Hardy.
Mac Danzig vs. Joe Stevenson: Wow who saw that coming? I still want to see both guys go down to 145, but I imagine they'll both stick around at 155. Joe Stevenson vs. Tyson Griffin makes sense as they're both on losing skids but are fairly popular fighters. I'd like to see Danzig take on Terry Etim to see if he's truly turned his career around.
Jim Miller vs. Charles Oliveira: I picked Miller to win, but I certainly did believe that he would tap the young black belt prospect so quickly. Oliveira really impressed me with his off the back offense, but I think he severely underestimated Miller's ground game and thought he'd be able to cruise to an easy win. Big win for Miller and a title shot could be within his grasp if he can manage one more big win against someone like Sean Sherk.
Stefan Struve vs. Sean McCorkle: I could have cared less about this fight. Big tall guy beats up gassed out tall guy. The end.
GSP vs. Josh Koscheck: Holy ass beating Batman. I know people have been giving GSP crap for being too boring and relying on his wrestling too much, but seriously, when did anyone ever think that Koscheck was a better boxer. Koscheck's stand up is mediocre at best thanks to his leaping jabs and predictable overhand right. GSP was a stellar kickboxer to begin with and his time with Freddie Roach has obviously helped his overall game as evidenced by the jab that literally broke Koscheck's face. Aside from Jake Shields GSP has cleaned out the division and I don't think Shields really offers anything that GSP can't handle, especially looking back on the beating GSP put on Jon Fitch (yes I think Fitch is better). Koscheck has a broken orbital bone so he'll be out for awhile, and after GSP embarrasses Shields I think it'll be time for him to make the move to 185.
Thursday, December 9, 2010
UFC 124 Picks
Aside from the main event and maybe the Jim Miller/Charles Oliveira fight I'm not terribly excited about this fight card, but I'll do my usual picks for the show.
Mac Danzig vs. Joe Stevenson: This is the battle of two Ultimate Fighter winners who are fighting for relevance in a stacked UFC 155 division. In all honesty, both of these fighters could likely make 145, a move that wouldn't hurt either fighter with the UFC and WEC merging. Stevenson hasn't fought since his loss to Sotiropoulos and Danzig's most recent fight ended in a controversial technical submission loss to Matt Wiman. I look for Stevenson to use his size and strength advantage to take Danzig down and wear him out. I'm taking Stevenson by late TKO or unanimous decision which will either lead to Danzig's dismissal or move to 145.
Jim Miller vs. Charles Oliveira: Part of me is very excited for this fight considering how talented both men are, but part of me is also disappointed that more time wasn't spent building Oliveira up. Miller is coming off an impressive win over Gleison Tibau and Oliveira submitted Efrain Escudero the same night. Oliveira is an extremely talented grappler but I don't think he is as well-rounded as Miller nor do I think he has faced the level of competition that Miller has faced. Miller's experience and all around skill set are going to be the difference in this fight, so I'm taking him to win via unanimous decision.
Sean McCorkle vs. Stefan Struve: Hard for me to call this fight considering McCorkle's only UFC fight was a quick submission victory over Mark Hunt. Struve is 4-2 is the UFC with those losses coming to top contenders Junior Dos Santos and Roy Nelson. McCorkle will be the much stronger fighter, but I think Struve's length and ability to take a beating will be the difference maker. Morecraft and Buentello really beat up on Struve and he still came out with victories, and that's what I think will happen here. Struve will be on the receiving end of a beatdown from McCorkle but will eventually pull one of his tricks out when McCorkle gets careless or tired.
Thiago Alves vs. John Howard: While this fight has the potential to be pretty exciting, it doesn't make much sense to me considering how it's a major step up for Howard when he's coming off a loss and it's a pretty major step down for Alves after fighting GSP and Fitch. Both men like to stand and trade, but Howard also has some good takedowns and top control. While Howard can take Alves down, Alves will certainly be the better striker and, despite what we saw in the last fight with Fitch, has some good takedown defense. I look for this fight to be pretty back and forth to start with Howard scoring a takedown, but eventually getting finished on the feet when he gets baited into an exchange with the Pitbull.
Georges St. Pierre vs. Josh Koscheck: While Koscheck certainly holds some big power in his hands and is a decorated collegiate wrestler, I'm still struggling to think of a way he wins this fight. GSP is a much better MMA wrestler in that he's always looking to improve his position, he's active with ground and pound and submissions, and his takedowns and takedown defense are second to none. While Koscheck may have more power in his strikes, he's not nearly as crisp or technical as GSP and I can only imagine that GSP has gotten better since their first fight as he has spent more time at Tristar and Jackson's as well as with Freddie Roach. That being said, I don't see GSP losing this fight or even ending up in trouble at anytime. GSP has already beaten Koscheck once and since then GSP has beaten a better striker (Alves) and a better wrestler(Fitch), so I look for GSP to take a commanding win either by late stoppage or one-sided decision.
As always follow me on Twitter @JustinCohee and listen to me on the Tom Van Stone Show on wrestleview.com. Thanks and enjoy the fights!
Mac Danzig vs. Joe Stevenson: This is the battle of two Ultimate Fighter winners who are fighting for relevance in a stacked UFC 155 division. In all honesty, both of these fighters could likely make 145, a move that wouldn't hurt either fighter with the UFC and WEC merging. Stevenson hasn't fought since his loss to Sotiropoulos and Danzig's most recent fight ended in a controversial technical submission loss to Matt Wiman. I look for Stevenson to use his size and strength advantage to take Danzig down and wear him out. I'm taking Stevenson by late TKO or unanimous decision which will either lead to Danzig's dismissal or move to 145.
Jim Miller vs. Charles Oliveira: Part of me is very excited for this fight considering how talented both men are, but part of me is also disappointed that more time wasn't spent building Oliveira up. Miller is coming off an impressive win over Gleison Tibau and Oliveira submitted Efrain Escudero the same night. Oliveira is an extremely talented grappler but I don't think he is as well-rounded as Miller nor do I think he has faced the level of competition that Miller has faced. Miller's experience and all around skill set are going to be the difference in this fight, so I'm taking him to win via unanimous decision.
Sean McCorkle vs. Stefan Struve: Hard for me to call this fight considering McCorkle's only UFC fight was a quick submission victory over Mark Hunt. Struve is 4-2 is the UFC with those losses coming to top contenders Junior Dos Santos and Roy Nelson. McCorkle will be the much stronger fighter, but I think Struve's length and ability to take a beating will be the difference maker. Morecraft and Buentello really beat up on Struve and he still came out with victories, and that's what I think will happen here. Struve will be on the receiving end of a beatdown from McCorkle but will eventually pull one of his tricks out when McCorkle gets careless or tired.
Thiago Alves vs. John Howard: While this fight has the potential to be pretty exciting, it doesn't make much sense to me considering how it's a major step up for Howard when he's coming off a loss and it's a pretty major step down for Alves after fighting GSP and Fitch. Both men like to stand and trade, but Howard also has some good takedowns and top control. While Howard can take Alves down, Alves will certainly be the better striker and, despite what we saw in the last fight with Fitch, has some good takedown defense. I look for this fight to be pretty back and forth to start with Howard scoring a takedown, but eventually getting finished on the feet when he gets baited into an exchange with the Pitbull.
Georges St. Pierre vs. Josh Koscheck: While Koscheck certainly holds some big power in his hands and is a decorated collegiate wrestler, I'm still struggling to think of a way he wins this fight. GSP is a much better MMA wrestler in that he's always looking to improve his position, he's active with ground and pound and submissions, and his takedowns and takedown defense are second to none. While Koscheck may have more power in his strikes, he's not nearly as crisp or technical as GSP and I can only imagine that GSP has gotten better since their first fight as he has spent more time at Tristar and Jackson's as well as with Freddie Roach. That being said, I don't see GSP losing this fight or even ending up in trouble at anytime. GSP has already beaten Koscheck once and since then GSP has beaten a better striker (Alves) and a better wrestler(Fitch), so I look for GSP to take a commanding win either by late stoppage or one-sided decision.
As always follow me on Twitter @JustinCohee and listen to me on the Tom Van Stone Show on wrestleview.com. Thanks and enjoy the fights!
Thursday, December 2, 2010
Picks For This Weekend's UFC & Strikeforce Events
This coming Saturday, we will not only see a new Ultimate fighter crowned, but we will also see a solid card from Strikeforce. I didn't watch to much of the Ultimate Fighter this season, but I'll do my best to make some intelligent choices. Lets get right to the picks.
UFC Ultimate Fighter 12 Finale
Leonard Garcia vs. Nam Phan: I'm glad to see Phan going back down to 145 as he was pretty undersized at 155. This may be Phan's first UFC fight, but he has a lot of experience and has fought for K-1, Strikeforce, and Sengoku. Garcia is heavy handed and usually goes for broke and throws haymakers. Phan showed on TUF that he has some pretty crisp striking, and if he can avoid the winging punches of Garcia, I think he'll take a close decision as Garcia will gas himself out.
Rick Story vs. Johny Hendricks: I think this has fight of the night written all over it. Both fighters are up and comers in the welterweight division and are looking to get some big tme exposure and possibly a main card spot on a big PPV. Both have good wrestling, but Hendricks will likely have the advantage in that department. I would say that Story might have slightly better striking, but Hendricks has a lot of power. Story is very capable with submissions, though, something I'm not sure Hendricks is well-versed in at this early stage of his career. Bit of a coin flip, but I'm going with Story. Hendricks could very well put a beating on Story with his big big power, but I just think Story's tenacity will win out.
Kendall Grove vs. Demian Maia: While this seems like an easy pick, an upset in Grove's favor is not out of the realm of possibility. Maia's striking has improved significantly, but Grove will not only have a striking advantage, he will also have a significant reach advantage. Maia is a BJJ ace and has great takedowns as well. In order to win this fight Maia may have to absorb a few shots to get close to Grove and get him to the mat. Even then, Grove is a talented grappler in his own right and could be a threat should the fight go to the ground, even on his back. I'm a big Maia fan, and think his BJJ is just too good for him to not win this fight. Grove could certainly make it interesting, but I don't think it'll be enough to stop Maia from winning via late submission or decision.
Jonathan Brookins vs. Michael Johnson: As I stated earlier, I didn't watch enough of this season of tough to get a good feel for these guys. From what I've seen, though, Brookins is a strong grappler and Johnson is more of a straight wrestler. The only fight I've seen with either guy is Brookins's loss to Jose Aldo. Given that Brookins has fought at 145, I'm thinking Johnson will be the bigger fighter. No idea who to pick here, so I'm just going to say Johnson by decision.
Stephan Bonnar vs. Igor Pokrajac: I'm not entirely sure why this is headlining the show given that Pokrajac is relatively unknown in the UFC and Bonnar only has one win in his past 4 fights. Bonnar rarely has a boring fight, though, so maybe UFC officials think this fight will end up be more exciting than the potential grapple fest that Maia/Grove could end up being. Pokrajac lost his first two fights in the UFC before submitting James Irvin at UFC on VS 2 in an impressive showing. Both men are pretty well-rounded, but Bonnar is a UFC veteran who has faced tougher competition over his career. I'm taking Bonnar by decision in a fight that will likely see Pokrajac get his walking papers.
Strikeforce: Henderson vs. Babalu
Benji Radach vs. Ovince St. Preux: Tough fight for me to call since I've never seen St. Preux fight, but I do know he recently won at a Challengers event over Antwain Britt, and has an 8 second KO over UFC veteran Jason Day. Radach hasn't fought since he lost to Scott Smith back in April of 2009. Radach has some good striking and big power, but he's coming back from a lot of injuries and is taking this fight on short notice. I'm going with St. Preux, just because I don't think he's facing a 100% Razor.
Mike Kyle vs. Antonio Silva: Kyle is a late replacement for Valentijn Overeem and is stepping into a real tough fight. Kyle is undefeated in his last 6 fights, but has most recently fought at 205 pounds. Silva is coming off of a big win over Andrei Arlovski and even his most recent loss to Fabricio Werdum was an impressive showing. Given that Kyle is taking a fight on this short of notice against a bigger, more talented opponent, I can't see this fight ending any other way than with a TKO in Silva's favor.
Robbie Lawler vs. Matt Lindland: This is a test for both men to see if they can stay relevant in the fight game. Lawler is 2-2 in his last four fights with wins over Scott Smith and Melvin Manhoef and losses to Jake Shields and Babalu. Lindland recently broke a 2 fight losing streak with a win over Kevin Casey at a Challengers event. Lindland will be the better wrestler by far, but Lawler possesses big power in his hands, and Lindland's chin is certainly a factor. I'm taking Lawler as I think he'll be able to defend the takedown and will eventually connect on Lindland and knock him out.
Paul Daley vs. Scott Smith: This fight has huge potential to result in fireworks and a highlight reel KO. Smith has a habit of getting beat up before pulling a win out of nowhere, but I don't think it'll happen here. Daley strikes are just too hard to withstand for an extended period of time. I think Smith is extremely tough, but a fighter who takes as much punishment as he does will not likely last long with a striker as technical and powerful as Daley. I'm taking Daley by KO.
Dan Henderson vs. Renato "Babalu" Sobral: This is a rematch from a 2000 Rings bout that saw Henderson walk away with the win via a majority decision. Henderson brings heavy hands and stellar wrestling to this fight while Babalu brings a more varied striking approach with high level BJJ and submission skills. Henderson didn't look great in his last fight against Jake Shields, but stated his poor peformance was due to a difficult weight cut as a result of pain killers. Henderson now returns to 205 and shouldn't have much trouble making a cut this time around. Babalu most recently defeated Robbie Lawler in what was mostly a kickboxing match. I was hoping Babalu was stick around at 185, but maybe he'll return after this fight. I'm having a tough time picking a winner here as Henderson could land a bomb of a right hand or he could grind out an ugly decision with takedowns and top control. Babalu could keep it safe on the feet with quick punches and kicks or could very well catch Hendo in a submission. I'm hoping for a Babalu win, but I think Henderson will be too strong and will grind out a decision win.
UFC Ultimate Fighter 12 Finale
Leonard Garcia vs. Nam Phan: I'm glad to see Phan going back down to 145 as he was pretty undersized at 155. This may be Phan's first UFC fight, but he has a lot of experience and has fought for K-1, Strikeforce, and Sengoku. Garcia is heavy handed and usually goes for broke and throws haymakers. Phan showed on TUF that he has some pretty crisp striking, and if he can avoid the winging punches of Garcia, I think he'll take a close decision as Garcia will gas himself out.
Rick Story vs. Johny Hendricks: I think this has fight of the night written all over it. Both fighters are up and comers in the welterweight division and are looking to get some big tme exposure and possibly a main card spot on a big PPV. Both have good wrestling, but Hendricks will likely have the advantage in that department. I would say that Story might have slightly better striking, but Hendricks has a lot of power. Story is very capable with submissions, though, something I'm not sure Hendricks is well-versed in at this early stage of his career. Bit of a coin flip, but I'm going with Story. Hendricks could very well put a beating on Story with his big big power, but I just think Story's tenacity will win out.
Kendall Grove vs. Demian Maia: While this seems like an easy pick, an upset in Grove's favor is not out of the realm of possibility. Maia's striking has improved significantly, but Grove will not only have a striking advantage, he will also have a significant reach advantage. Maia is a BJJ ace and has great takedowns as well. In order to win this fight Maia may have to absorb a few shots to get close to Grove and get him to the mat. Even then, Grove is a talented grappler in his own right and could be a threat should the fight go to the ground, even on his back. I'm a big Maia fan, and think his BJJ is just too good for him to not win this fight. Grove could certainly make it interesting, but I don't think it'll be enough to stop Maia from winning via late submission or decision.
Jonathan Brookins vs. Michael Johnson: As I stated earlier, I didn't watch enough of this season of tough to get a good feel for these guys. From what I've seen, though, Brookins is a strong grappler and Johnson is more of a straight wrestler. The only fight I've seen with either guy is Brookins's loss to Jose Aldo. Given that Brookins has fought at 145, I'm thinking Johnson will be the bigger fighter. No idea who to pick here, so I'm just going to say Johnson by decision.
Stephan Bonnar vs. Igor Pokrajac: I'm not entirely sure why this is headlining the show given that Pokrajac is relatively unknown in the UFC and Bonnar only has one win in his past 4 fights. Bonnar rarely has a boring fight, though, so maybe UFC officials think this fight will end up be more exciting than the potential grapple fest that Maia/Grove could end up being. Pokrajac lost his first two fights in the UFC before submitting James Irvin at UFC on VS 2 in an impressive showing. Both men are pretty well-rounded, but Bonnar is a UFC veteran who has faced tougher competition over his career. I'm taking Bonnar by decision in a fight that will likely see Pokrajac get his walking papers.
Strikeforce: Henderson vs. Babalu
Benji Radach vs. Ovince St. Preux: Tough fight for me to call since I've never seen St. Preux fight, but I do know he recently won at a Challengers event over Antwain Britt, and has an 8 second KO over UFC veteran Jason Day. Radach hasn't fought since he lost to Scott Smith back in April of 2009. Radach has some good striking and big power, but he's coming back from a lot of injuries and is taking this fight on short notice. I'm going with St. Preux, just because I don't think he's facing a 100% Razor.
Mike Kyle vs. Antonio Silva: Kyle is a late replacement for Valentijn Overeem and is stepping into a real tough fight. Kyle is undefeated in his last 6 fights, but has most recently fought at 205 pounds. Silva is coming off of a big win over Andrei Arlovski and even his most recent loss to Fabricio Werdum was an impressive showing. Given that Kyle is taking a fight on this short of notice against a bigger, more talented opponent, I can't see this fight ending any other way than with a TKO in Silva's favor.
Robbie Lawler vs. Matt Lindland: This is a test for both men to see if they can stay relevant in the fight game. Lawler is 2-2 in his last four fights with wins over Scott Smith and Melvin Manhoef and losses to Jake Shields and Babalu. Lindland recently broke a 2 fight losing streak with a win over Kevin Casey at a Challengers event. Lindland will be the better wrestler by far, but Lawler possesses big power in his hands, and Lindland's chin is certainly a factor. I'm taking Lawler as I think he'll be able to defend the takedown and will eventually connect on Lindland and knock him out.
Paul Daley vs. Scott Smith: This fight has huge potential to result in fireworks and a highlight reel KO. Smith has a habit of getting beat up before pulling a win out of nowhere, but I don't think it'll happen here. Daley strikes are just too hard to withstand for an extended period of time. I think Smith is extremely tough, but a fighter who takes as much punishment as he does will not likely last long with a striker as technical and powerful as Daley. I'm taking Daley by KO.
Dan Henderson vs. Renato "Babalu" Sobral: This is a rematch from a 2000 Rings bout that saw Henderson walk away with the win via a majority decision. Henderson brings heavy hands and stellar wrestling to this fight while Babalu brings a more varied striking approach with high level BJJ and submission skills. Henderson didn't look great in his last fight against Jake Shields, but stated his poor peformance was due to a difficult weight cut as a result of pain killers. Henderson now returns to 205 and shouldn't have much trouble making a cut this time around. Babalu most recently defeated Robbie Lawler in what was mostly a kickboxing match. I was hoping Babalu was stick around at 185, but maybe he'll return after this fight. I'm having a tough time picking a winner here as Henderson could land a bomb of a right hand or he could grind out an ugly decision with takedowns and top control. Babalu could keep it safe on the feet with quick punches and kicks or could very well catch Hendo in a submission. I'm hoping for a Babalu win, but I think Henderson will be too strong and will grind out a decision win.
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