What's up guys, here are my picks for UFC 125!! Since ION is airing a bunch of the prelims I'll just fire off a bunch of quick picks versus my usual longer discussion of fewer fights.
Phil Baroni vs. Brad Tavares: If Baroni wants to win this fight he'll have to do so some time in the 1st round. I commend Baroni's attempts to revitalize his career by spending time in Thailand, but his gas tank has been and probably always will be his weakness. Tavares is younger and likely a little more well-rounded. I'll take Tavares by UD.
Josh Grispi vs. Dustin Poirier: This is Grispi's fight to lose as he is being groomed for his eventual title shot against Jose Aldo. I haven't seen Poirier fight so it's tough for me to make a fair assessment, but Grispi has a lot of tools to win and I think he'll continue his string of submission victories.
Marcus Davis vs. Jeremy Stephens: I've been reading a lot of predicitions on the web and I'm surprised as to how few people are picking Davis to win. Stephens has balls out power, but Davis packs quite a punch himself and it much more technically sound in my opinion, and we that Stephens can fall victim to technique in the fight with Guillard. This will be Davis's first fight at 155, so the cut could drain him, but I'm taking Davis by UD.
Takanori Gomi vs. Clay Guida: This is the fight I'm having the most trouble picking a winner for. Gomi has tons of power in his hands and also has good wrestling. Guida will be the better wrestler, but his short reach really limits his striking. I'm leaning to wards Guida as I think takedowns and GnP will play a difference, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Gomi pull out the win.
Nate Diaz vs. Dong Hyun Kim: This is a tough tough fight for Diaz and will be his first real test against a 170 fighter who plays right into his weakness. Diaz has trouble guys who can take him down and utilize smothering top control, and that exactly what Kim loves to do. Diaz's striking has come a long way since his UFC debut, and he's always dangerous with submission, but I think Kim will be too strong for Diaz to shake off the top. I'm taking Kim by UD.
Thiago Silva vs. Brandon Vera: Pretty funny how had this fight occurred a year or two ago it could have been for a title shot, but now it could be for jobs. Both men are dangerous strikers, but Vera has seemed to lose his edge and is hesitant to pull the trigger. Silva can be a force, but injuries have hampered him in the past and who knows if he is fully recovered. Both men are so-so on the mat, but Silva's GnP is just vicious. I'll take Silva via TKO just because I think Vera is a bust.
Chris Leben vs. Brian Stann: So Leben asks for Wanderlei Silva and gets Brian Stann. I'm not too excited for this fight as I was hoping to see Leben take some leaps in competition, and I think this is Leben's fight to lose. Both men prefer to keep fights standing, and while Leben will take some damage, his granite chin will keep him upright. Stann has been dropped and finished before and if he trades with Leben enough it'll happen again. I'll take Leben via UD or late TKO.
Frankie Edgar vs. Gray Maynard: As much as I hate to say it, I don't see this fight going much differently than the first one. Edgar has definitely progressed more as a fighter, but Maynard's strength and wrestling are just extremely difficult to deal with. Edgar could shock the would once again and pepper Maynard with shots as he did with Sherk and Penn, but I look for the Bully to continually take Edgar down and grind out one of his typical decision wins.
Friday, December 31, 2010
Tuesday, December 14, 2010
UFC 124 Post Fight Thoughts
Mark Bocek vs. Dustin Hazelett: Billy and I talked about this fight a little a few months ago when we tried to tape a conversation, and I picked Bocek from the start. Hazelett is flashy on the ground and can catch less talented fighters, but Bocek is much more technically sound. What we saw Saturday was a guy who uses his flashy rubber guard get easily subbed by a guy with sound fundamentals. Bocek calling Sotiropoulos out was weird since he's slated to face Siver in Australia, so I'd give Bocek Oliveira or a rematch with Jim Miller.
Thiago Alves vs. John Howard: Basically and very talented muay thai fighter versus a mediocre muay thai fighter. Alves looked like he was in amazing shape thanks to the Dolce diet and put on one of the best performances of his career. Howard isn't going to be much more then a mid level guy so he can get a new fighter to the UFC to bounce back. As for Alves I say give him another stand up fight and put him in the cage with Dan Hardy.
Mac Danzig vs. Joe Stevenson: Wow who saw that coming? I still want to see both guys go down to 145, but I imagine they'll both stick around at 155. Joe Stevenson vs. Tyson Griffin makes sense as they're both on losing skids but are fairly popular fighters. I'd like to see Danzig take on Terry Etim to see if he's truly turned his career around.
Jim Miller vs. Charles Oliveira: I picked Miller to win, but I certainly did believe that he would tap the young black belt prospect so quickly. Oliveira really impressed me with his off the back offense, but I think he severely underestimated Miller's ground game and thought he'd be able to cruise to an easy win. Big win for Miller and a title shot could be within his grasp if he can manage one more big win against someone like Sean Sherk.
Stefan Struve vs. Sean McCorkle: I could have cared less about this fight. Big tall guy beats up gassed out tall guy. The end.
GSP vs. Josh Koscheck: Holy ass beating Batman. I know people have been giving GSP crap for being too boring and relying on his wrestling too much, but seriously, when did anyone ever think that Koscheck was a better boxer. Koscheck's stand up is mediocre at best thanks to his leaping jabs and predictable overhand right. GSP was a stellar kickboxer to begin with and his time with Freddie Roach has obviously helped his overall game as evidenced by the jab that literally broke Koscheck's face. Aside from Jake Shields GSP has cleaned out the division and I don't think Shields really offers anything that GSP can't handle, especially looking back on the beating GSP put on Jon Fitch (yes I think Fitch is better). Koscheck has a broken orbital bone so he'll be out for awhile, and after GSP embarrasses Shields I think it'll be time for him to make the move to 185.
Thiago Alves vs. John Howard: Basically and very talented muay thai fighter versus a mediocre muay thai fighter. Alves looked like he was in amazing shape thanks to the Dolce diet and put on one of the best performances of his career. Howard isn't going to be much more then a mid level guy so he can get a new fighter to the UFC to bounce back. As for Alves I say give him another stand up fight and put him in the cage with Dan Hardy.
Mac Danzig vs. Joe Stevenson: Wow who saw that coming? I still want to see both guys go down to 145, but I imagine they'll both stick around at 155. Joe Stevenson vs. Tyson Griffin makes sense as they're both on losing skids but are fairly popular fighters. I'd like to see Danzig take on Terry Etim to see if he's truly turned his career around.
Jim Miller vs. Charles Oliveira: I picked Miller to win, but I certainly did believe that he would tap the young black belt prospect so quickly. Oliveira really impressed me with his off the back offense, but I think he severely underestimated Miller's ground game and thought he'd be able to cruise to an easy win. Big win for Miller and a title shot could be within his grasp if he can manage one more big win against someone like Sean Sherk.
Stefan Struve vs. Sean McCorkle: I could have cared less about this fight. Big tall guy beats up gassed out tall guy. The end.
GSP vs. Josh Koscheck: Holy ass beating Batman. I know people have been giving GSP crap for being too boring and relying on his wrestling too much, but seriously, when did anyone ever think that Koscheck was a better boxer. Koscheck's stand up is mediocre at best thanks to his leaping jabs and predictable overhand right. GSP was a stellar kickboxer to begin with and his time with Freddie Roach has obviously helped his overall game as evidenced by the jab that literally broke Koscheck's face. Aside from Jake Shields GSP has cleaned out the division and I don't think Shields really offers anything that GSP can't handle, especially looking back on the beating GSP put on Jon Fitch (yes I think Fitch is better). Koscheck has a broken orbital bone so he'll be out for awhile, and after GSP embarrasses Shields I think it'll be time for him to make the move to 185.
Thursday, December 9, 2010
UFC 124 Picks
Aside from the main event and maybe the Jim Miller/Charles Oliveira fight I'm not terribly excited about this fight card, but I'll do my usual picks for the show.
Mac Danzig vs. Joe Stevenson: This is the battle of two Ultimate Fighter winners who are fighting for relevance in a stacked UFC 155 division. In all honesty, both of these fighters could likely make 145, a move that wouldn't hurt either fighter with the UFC and WEC merging. Stevenson hasn't fought since his loss to Sotiropoulos and Danzig's most recent fight ended in a controversial technical submission loss to Matt Wiman. I look for Stevenson to use his size and strength advantage to take Danzig down and wear him out. I'm taking Stevenson by late TKO or unanimous decision which will either lead to Danzig's dismissal or move to 145.
Jim Miller vs. Charles Oliveira: Part of me is very excited for this fight considering how talented both men are, but part of me is also disappointed that more time wasn't spent building Oliveira up. Miller is coming off an impressive win over Gleison Tibau and Oliveira submitted Efrain Escudero the same night. Oliveira is an extremely talented grappler but I don't think he is as well-rounded as Miller nor do I think he has faced the level of competition that Miller has faced. Miller's experience and all around skill set are going to be the difference in this fight, so I'm taking him to win via unanimous decision.
Sean McCorkle vs. Stefan Struve: Hard for me to call this fight considering McCorkle's only UFC fight was a quick submission victory over Mark Hunt. Struve is 4-2 is the UFC with those losses coming to top contenders Junior Dos Santos and Roy Nelson. McCorkle will be the much stronger fighter, but I think Struve's length and ability to take a beating will be the difference maker. Morecraft and Buentello really beat up on Struve and he still came out with victories, and that's what I think will happen here. Struve will be on the receiving end of a beatdown from McCorkle but will eventually pull one of his tricks out when McCorkle gets careless or tired.
Thiago Alves vs. John Howard: While this fight has the potential to be pretty exciting, it doesn't make much sense to me considering how it's a major step up for Howard when he's coming off a loss and it's a pretty major step down for Alves after fighting GSP and Fitch. Both men like to stand and trade, but Howard also has some good takedowns and top control. While Howard can take Alves down, Alves will certainly be the better striker and, despite what we saw in the last fight with Fitch, has some good takedown defense. I look for this fight to be pretty back and forth to start with Howard scoring a takedown, but eventually getting finished on the feet when he gets baited into an exchange with the Pitbull.
Georges St. Pierre vs. Josh Koscheck: While Koscheck certainly holds some big power in his hands and is a decorated collegiate wrestler, I'm still struggling to think of a way he wins this fight. GSP is a much better MMA wrestler in that he's always looking to improve his position, he's active with ground and pound and submissions, and his takedowns and takedown defense are second to none. While Koscheck may have more power in his strikes, he's not nearly as crisp or technical as GSP and I can only imagine that GSP has gotten better since their first fight as he has spent more time at Tristar and Jackson's as well as with Freddie Roach. That being said, I don't see GSP losing this fight or even ending up in trouble at anytime. GSP has already beaten Koscheck once and since then GSP has beaten a better striker (Alves) and a better wrestler(Fitch), so I look for GSP to take a commanding win either by late stoppage or one-sided decision.
As always follow me on Twitter @JustinCohee and listen to me on the Tom Van Stone Show on wrestleview.com. Thanks and enjoy the fights!
Mac Danzig vs. Joe Stevenson: This is the battle of two Ultimate Fighter winners who are fighting for relevance in a stacked UFC 155 division. In all honesty, both of these fighters could likely make 145, a move that wouldn't hurt either fighter with the UFC and WEC merging. Stevenson hasn't fought since his loss to Sotiropoulos and Danzig's most recent fight ended in a controversial technical submission loss to Matt Wiman. I look for Stevenson to use his size and strength advantage to take Danzig down and wear him out. I'm taking Stevenson by late TKO or unanimous decision which will either lead to Danzig's dismissal or move to 145.
Jim Miller vs. Charles Oliveira: Part of me is very excited for this fight considering how talented both men are, but part of me is also disappointed that more time wasn't spent building Oliveira up. Miller is coming off an impressive win over Gleison Tibau and Oliveira submitted Efrain Escudero the same night. Oliveira is an extremely talented grappler but I don't think he is as well-rounded as Miller nor do I think he has faced the level of competition that Miller has faced. Miller's experience and all around skill set are going to be the difference in this fight, so I'm taking him to win via unanimous decision.
Sean McCorkle vs. Stefan Struve: Hard for me to call this fight considering McCorkle's only UFC fight was a quick submission victory over Mark Hunt. Struve is 4-2 is the UFC with those losses coming to top contenders Junior Dos Santos and Roy Nelson. McCorkle will be the much stronger fighter, but I think Struve's length and ability to take a beating will be the difference maker. Morecraft and Buentello really beat up on Struve and he still came out with victories, and that's what I think will happen here. Struve will be on the receiving end of a beatdown from McCorkle but will eventually pull one of his tricks out when McCorkle gets careless or tired.
Thiago Alves vs. John Howard: While this fight has the potential to be pretty exciting, it doesn't make much sense to me considering how it's a major step up for Howard when he's coming off a loss and it's a pretty major step down for Alves after fighting GSP and Fitch. Both men like to stand and trade, but Howard also has some good takedowns and top control. While Howard can take Alves down, Alves will certainly be the better striker and, despite what we saw in the last fight with Fitch, has some good takedown defense. I look for this fight to be pretty back and forth to start with Howard scoring a takedown, but eventually getting finished on the feet when he gets baited into an exchange with the Pitbull.
Georges St. Pierre vs. Josh Koscheck: While Koscheck certainly holds some big power in his hands and is a decorated collegiate wrestler, I'm still struggling to think of a way he wins this fight. GSP is a much better MMA wrestler in that he's always looking to improve his position, he's active with ground and pound and submissions, and his takedowns and takedown defense are second to none. While Koscheck may have more power in his strikes, he's not nearly as crisp or technical as GSP and I can only imagine that GSP has gotten better since their first fight as he has spent more time at Tristar and Jackson's as well as with Freddie Roach. That being said, I don't see GSP losing this fight or even ending up in trouble at anytime. GSP has already beaten Koscheck once and since then GSP has beaten a better striker (Alves) and a better wrestler(Fitch), so I look for GSP to take a commanding win either by late stoppage or one-sided decision.
As always follow me on Twitter @JustinCohee and listen to me on the Tom Van Stone Show on wrestleview.com. Thanks and enjoy the fights!
Thursday, December 2, 2010
Picks For This Weekend's UFC & Strikeforce Events
This coming Saturday, we will not only see a new Ultimate fighter crowned, but we will also see a solid card from Strikeforce. I didn't watch to much of the Ultimate Fighter this season, but I'll do my best to make some intelligent choices. Lets get right to the picks.
UFC Ultimate Fighter 12 Finale
Leonard Garcia vs. Nam Phan: I'm glad to see Phan going back down to 145 as he was pretty undersized at 155. This may be Phan's first UFC fight, but he has a lot of experience and has fought for K-1, Strikeforce, and Sengoku. Garcia is heavy handed and usually goes for broke and throws haymakers. Phan showed on TUF that he has some pretty crisp striking, and if he can avoid the winging punches of Garcia, I think he'll take a close decision as Garcia will gas himself out.
Rick Story vs. Johny Hendricks: I think this has fight of the night written all over it. Both fighters are up and comers in the welterweight division and are looking to get some big tme exposure and possibly a main card spot on a big PPV. Both have good wrestling, but Hendricks will likely have the advantage in that department. I would say that Story might have slightly better striking, but Hendricks has a lot of power. Story is very capable with submissions, though, something I'm not sure Hendricks is well-versed in at this early stage of his career. Bit of a coin flip, but I'm going with Story. Hendricks could very well put a beating on Story with his big big power, but I just think Story's tenacity will win out.
Kendall Grove vs. Demian Maia: While this seems like an easy pick, an upset in Grove's favor is not out of the realm of possibility. Maia's striking has improved significantly, but Grove will not only have a striking advantage, he will also have a significant reach advantage. Maia is a BJJ ace and has great takedowns as well. In order to win this fight Maia may have to absorb a few shots to get close to Grove and get him to the mat. Even then, Grove is a talented grappler in his own right and could be a threat should the fight go to the ground, even on his back. I'm a big Maia fan, and think his BJJ is just too good for him to not win this fight. Grove could certainly make it interesting, but I don't think it'll be enough to stop Maia from winning via late submission or decision.
Jonathan Brookins vs. Michael Johnson: As I stated earlier, I didn't watch enough of this season of tough to get a good feel for these guys. From what I've seen, though, Brookins is a strong grappler and Johnson is more of a straight wrestler. The only fight I've seen with either guy is Brookins's loss to Jose Aldo. Given that Brookins has fought at 145, I'm thinking Johnson will be the bigger fighter. No idea who to pick here, so I'm just going to say Johnson by decision.
Stephan Bonnar vs. Igor Pokrajac: I'm not entirely sure why this is headlining the show given that Pokrajac is relatively unknown in the UFC and Bonnar only has one win in his past 4 fights. Bonnar rarely has a boring fight, though, so maybe UFC officials think this fight will end up be more exciting than the potential grapple fest that Maia/Grove could end up being. Pokrajac lost his first two fights in the UFC before submitting James Irvin at UFC on VS 2 in an impressive showing. Both men are pretty well-rounded, but Bonnar is a UFC veteran who has faced tougher competition over his career. I'm taking Bonnar by decision in a fight that will likely see Pokrajac get his walking papers.
Strikeforce: Henderson vs. Babalu
Benji Radach vs. Ovince St. Preux: Tough fight for me to call since I've never seen St. Preux fight, but I do know he recently won at a Challengers event over Antwain Britt, and has an 8 second KO over UFC veteran Jason Day. Radach hasn't fought since he lost to Scott Smith back in April of 2009. Radach has some good striking and big power, but he's coming back from a lot of injuries and is taking this fight on short notice. I'm going with St. Preux, just because I don't think he's facing a 100% Razor.
Mike Kyle vs. Antonio Silva: Kyle is a late replacement for Valentijn Overeem and is stepping into a real tough fight. Kyle is undefeated in his last 6 fights, but has most recently fought at 205 pounds. Silva is coming off of a big win over Andrei Arlovski and even his most recent loss to Fabricio Werdum was an impressive showing. Given that Kyle is taking a fight on this short of notice against a bigger, more talented opponent, I can't see this fight ending any other way than with a TKO in Silva's favor.
Robbie Lawler vs. Matt Lindland: This is a test for both men to see if they can stay relevant in the fight game. Lawler is 2-2 in his last four fights with wins over Scott Smith and Melvin Manhoef and losses to Jake Shields and Babalu. Lindland recently broke a 2 fight losing streak with a win over Kevin Casey at a Challengers event. Lindland will be the better wrestler by far, but Lawler possesses big power in his hands, and Lindland's chin is certainly a factor. I'm taking Lawler as I think he'll be able to defend the takedown and will eventually connect on Lindland and knock him out.
Paul Daley vs. Scott Smith: This fight has huge potential to result in fireworks and a highlight reel KO. Smith has a habit of getting beat up before pulling a win out of nowhere, but I don't think it'll happen here. Daley strikes are just too hard to withstand for an extended period of time. I think Smith is extremely tough, but a fighter who takes as much punishment as he does will not likely last long with a striker as technical and powerful as Daley. I'm taking Daley by KO.
Dan Henderson vs. Renato "Babalu" Sobral: This is a rematch from a 2000 Rings bout that saw Henderson walk away with the win via a majority decision. Henderson brings heavy hands and stellar wrestling to this fight while Babalu brings a more varied striking approach with high level BJJ and submission skills. Henderson didn't look great in his last fight against Jake Shields, but stated his poor peformance was due to a difficult weight cut as a result of pain killers. Henderson now returns to 205 and shouldn't have much trouble making a cut this time around. Babalu most recently defeated Robbie Lawler in what was mostly a kickboxing match. I was hoping Babalu was stick around at 185, but maybe he'll return after this fight. I'm having a tough time picking a winner here as Henderson could land a bomb of a right hand or he could grind out an ugly decision with takedowns and top control. Babalu could keep it safe on the feet with quick punches and kicks or could very well catch Hendo in a submission. I'm hoping for a Babalu win, but I think Henderson will be too strong and will grind out a decision win.
UFC Ultimate Fighter 12 Finale
Leonard Garcia vs. Nam Phan: I'm glad to see Phan going back down to 145 as he was pretty undersized at 155. This may be Phan's first UFC fight, but he has a lot of experience and has fought for K-1, Strikeforce, and Sengoku. Garcia is heavy handed and usually goes for broke and throws haymakers. Phan showed on TUF that he has some pretty crisp striking, and if he can avoid the winging punches of Garcia, I think he'll take a close decision as Garcia will gas himself out.
Rick Story vs. Johny Hendricks: I think this has fight of the night written all over it. Both fighters are up and comers in the welterweight division and are looking to get some big tme exposure and possibly a main card spot on a big PPV. Both have good wrestling, but Hendricks will likely have the advantage in that department. I would say that Story might have slightly better striking, but Hendricks has a lot of power. Story is very capable with submissions, though, something I'm not sure Hendricks is well-versed in at this early stage of his career. Bit of a coin flip, but I'm going with Story. Hendricks could very well put a beating on Story with his big big power, but I just think Story's tenacity will win out.
Kendall Grove vs. Demian Maia: While this seems like an easy pick, an upset in Grove's favor is not out of the realm of possibility. Maia's striking has improved significantly, but Grove will not only have a striking advantage, he will also have a significant reach advantage. Maia is a BJJ ace and has great takedowns as well. In order to win this fight Maia may have to absorb a few shots to get close to Grove and get him to the mat. Even then, Grove is a talented grappler in his own right and could be a threat should the fight go to the ground, even on his back. I'm a big Maia fan, and think his BJJ is just too good for him to not win this fight. Grove could certainly make it interesting, but I don't think it'll be enough to stop Maia from winning via late submission or decision.
Jonathan Brookins vs. Michael Johnson: As I stated earlier, I didn't watch enough of this season of tough to get a good feel for these guys. From what I've seen, though, Brookins is a strong grappler and Johnson is more of a straight wrestler. The only fight I've seen with either guy is Brookins's loss to Jose Aldo. Given that Brookins has fought at 145, I'm thinking Johnson will be the bigger fighter. No idea who to pick here, so I'm just going to say Johnson by decision.
Stephan Bonnar vs. Igor Pokrajac: I'm not entirely sure why this is headlining the show given that Pokrajac is relatively unknown in the UFC and Bonnar only has one win in his past 4 fights. Bonnar rarely has a boring fight, though, so maybe UFC officials think this fight will end up be more exciting than the potential grapple fest that Maia/Grove could end up being. Pokrajac lost his first two fights in the UFC before submitting James Irvin at UFC on VS 2 in an impressive showing. Both men are pretty well-rounded, but Bonnar is a UFC veteran who has faced tougher competition over his career. I'm taking Bonnar by decision in a fight that will likely see Pokrajac get his walking papers.
Strikeforce: Henderson vs. Babalu
Benji Radach vs. Ovince St. Preux: Tough fight for me to call since I've never seen St. Preux fight, but I do know he recently won at a Challengers event over Antwain Britt, and has an 8 second KO over UFC veteran Jason Day. Radach hasn't fought since he lost to Scott Smith back in April of 2009. Radach has some good striking and big power, but he's coming back from a lot of injuries and is taking this fight on short notice. I'm going with St. Preux, just because I don't think he's facing a 100% Razor.
Mike Kyle vs. Antonio Silva: Kyle is a late replacement for Valentijn Overeem and is stepping into a real tough fight. Kyle is undefeated in his last 6 fights, but has most recently fought at 205 pounds. Silva is coming off of a big win over Andrei Arlovski and even his most recent loss to Fabricio Werdum was an impressive showing. Given that Kyle is taking a fight on this short of notice against a bigger, more talented opponent, I can't see this fight ending any other way than with a TKO in Silva's favor.
Robbie Lawler vs. Matt Lindland: This is a test for both men to see if they can stay relevant in the fight game. Lawler is 2-2 in his last four fights with wins over Scott Smith and Melvin Manhoef and losses to Jake Shields and Babalu. Lindland recently broke a 2 fight losing streak with a win over Kevin Casey at a Challengers event. Lindland will be the better wrestler by far, but Lawler possesses big power in his hands, and Lindland's chin is certainly a factor. I'm taking Lawler as I think he'll be able to defend the takedown and will eventually connect on Lindland and knock him out.
Paul Daley vs. Scott Smith: This fight has huge potential to result in fireworks and a highlight reel KO. Smith has a habit of getting beat up before pulling a win out of nowhere, but I don't think it'll happen here. Daley strikes are just too hard to withstand for an extended period of time. I think Smith is extremely tough, but a fighter who takes as much punishment as he does will not likely last long with a striker as technical and powerful as Daley. I'm taking Daley by KO.
Dan Henderson vs. Renato "Babalu" Sobral: This is a rematch from a 2000 Rings bout that saw Henderson walk away with the win via a majority decision. Henderson brings heavy hands and stellar wrestling to this fight while Babalu brings a more varied striking approach with high level BJJ and submission skills. Henderson didn't look great in his last fight against Jake Shields, but stated his poor peformance was due to a difficult weight cut as a result of pain killers. Henderson now returns to 205 and shouldn't have much trouble making a cut this time around. Babalu most recently defeated Robbie Lawler in what was mostly a kickboxing match. I was hoping Babalu was stick around at 185, but maybe he'll return after this fight. I'm having a tough time picking a winner here as Henderson could land a bomb of a right hand or he could grind out an ugly decision with takedowns and top control. Babalu could keep it safe on the feet with quick punches and kicks or could very well catch Hendo in a submission. I'm hoping for a Babalu win, but I think Henderson will be too strong and will grind out a decision win.
Monday, November 22, 2010
UFC 123: Post Fight Thoughts
Well my friends UFC 123 has come and gone, and I have to say that after a disappointing UFC 122 event, the UFC bounced back nicely.
Paul Kelly/TJ O'Brien: After using his reach effectively in the first, O'Brien eventually folded to Kelly's pressure and was finished in the 2nd round when he couldn't escape punches and elbows from the crucifix position. Kelly continues to be a tough guy at 155 and really showed some great heart after getting beat up a bit in the first. I'd like to see him take on fellow Brit Terry Etim while O'Brien could get a fellow newcomer to the UFC.
Edson Barboza/Mike Lullo: This was the first time I had seen Barboza fight, and man was I impressed. Lullo had his moments and even showed some pretty decent rubber guard, but he had nothing for Barboza's brutal leg kicks. Some people are comparing Barboza to Jose Aldo, but I'm going to save those kind of comparisons for when I see him fight a little more. For a future match-up Lullo could take on TJ O'Brien in a winner keeps their job match. For Barboza, I think he needs to be brought up slowly, so fights with Aaron Riley or Paul Taylor could be ways to go.
Dennis Hallman/Karo Parisyan: Not much to report with this fight. Hallman quickly knocked down a clearly out of shape Parisyan early in the first and finished him with hammer fists. Big Tan Dan may have been a little quick with the stoppage, but I don't see how Parisyan would have done anything more than take more unanswered fists to the face. Dana White has already stated that Karo is done with the UFC and I think that's a smart move. Until Karo can get his shit together and get in shape he's not going to be able to compete against UFC caliber fighters. As for Hallman, I like the idea of a third fight with Hughes, but it doesn't seem like the UFC agrees. If not Hughes I say match up Hallman with Jake Ellenberger makes sense as both are on winning streaks and Ellenberger is without an opponent due to last minute changes.
Mark Munoz/Aaron Simpson: This fight was a little sloppy at times, but it was a good scrap to open up the show on Spike. Both men are heavy handed and threw caution to the wind on multiple occasions. The fight was marred by some bad officiating, though, as the ring official called for a horrendous stand up and allowed Simpson to recover from an eye poke that was simply a punch to the face (much like Sakara v. Irvin). Munoz eventually went on to win a unanimous decision in a super close fight that I'm shocked wasn't a split decision in the end. For Munoz, I say give him CB Dollaway while Simpson should get Nick Catone or Gerald Harris.
Brian Foster/Matt Brown: I am quickly becoming a Brian Foster fan. Despite the fact that he has lost some fights to guys like Rick Story and Chris Lytle, the guy is still extremely dangerous on the feet and on the mat. Foster really showed some great ground and pound and had some nice grappling transitions with Brown as well. Unfortunately for Brown, though, he left his head out for the taking for a split second and Foster was able to snag the quick guillotine. I'd love to see Foster get in the cage with Rory MacDonald, the fighter he replaced in this fight. For Brown, he very well could be cut, but if he is given another shot I say a fight with John Hathaway or Matt Riddle makes sense.
George Sotiropoulos/Joe Lauzon: After the first round I really thought Lauzon was going to get the win. His striking looked faster and he was landing the much harder shots. He was also defending the takedown and early submission attempts as well. When the second round started, however, Lauzon was noticeably tired and that's when Sotiropoulos took over. Joe Rogan really nailed it on the head when he stated that Sotiropoulos has some of the best transitions in MMA. After getting Lauzon to the mat and masterfully moved from guard, to side control, to mount and eventually to North/South, Sotiropoulos finished Lauzon with a kimura, much like he did with George Roop at UFC 101. Lauzon's conditioning really was the difference maker, and unless he improves in that area he very could settle in as a gatekeeper at 155. For Lauzon I think a fight with the loser of Jim Miller/Charles Oliveira would be great. Apparently Sotiropoulos will be getting Dennis Siver next, which seem like a step back in competition. I'd rather see George get the winner of Kenny Florian/Evan Dunham.
Phil Davis/Tim Boetsch: Once again Phil Davis shows why he is one of the hottest up and comers in the UFC. While his striking is still a work in progress, Davis's wrestling and mat awareness are great and fun to watch. Boetsch hung tough and even threatened with a guillotine at one point, but was eventually forced to tap to a modified kimura/hammerlock that is being called the "Mr. Wonderful." Tough loss for Boetsch, but he should get another chance with the UFC. I think a fight with Steve Cantwell or Kyle Kingsbury would make sense. As for Phil Davis, a fight with Matyushenko or Matt Hamill would be a nice step up for competition without rushing Davis too far too fast.
Gerald Harris/Maiquel Falcao: Harris might have lost a decision, but he really lost the fight in the first round. The round looked as if it going to be a feeling out affair until Falcao blasted Harris with a flurry of punches. Falcao eventually got Harris's back and locked on a RNC, but it looked as if Harris was saved by the bell. Falcao seemed to hold the choke a little longer than he should have as he held it after the bell and had to be pulled off by the referee. It has been reported, though, that the round was called about 6 seconds too early, an additional 6 seconds that Harris would not have lasted considering that he was nearly tapping anyways. The rest of the fight, especially the third round, turned out to be uneventful and Falcao was awarded the decision. I'm a Gerald Harris fan considering how nice he was when he spoke to me and my friends, so I'm a little bummed he lost, but I think he'll be able to rebound nicely. Fights with Tom Lawlor or Alessio Sakara (a fight that was scheduled and then eventually canceled) could be fun while Falcao could be matched up with Brian Stann or Rich Attonito.
BJ Penn/Matt Hughes: Not much to report here as Penn knocked Hughes out cold with strikes just 21 seconds into the fight. A stated earlier, I'd like to see Hughes get Hallman, but if the UFC decides to go another way I think fights with Martin Kampmann or Diego Sanchez would be a lot of fun. Penn has already been matched up with Jon Fitch, and I have to say that I am super excited to see that fight go down.
Lyoto Machida/Rampage Jackson: From what I've been reading over the past couple of days, I've seen a number of varying opinions as to who won this fight. Personally, I gave the fight to Rampage as I thought he won the first two rounds. The third round was clearly all Machida, but I didn't think it was enough to steal the fight. I need to rewatch the first round to be sure, but Rampage's aggressiveness and strikes did more for me than Machida's leg kicks. For Rampage, I say give him the winner of Griffin/Franklin and then you can give Machida the loser.
Once again, thanks to everyone who has been checking out the blog and be sure to listen to me on the Tom Van Stone Show on Wrestleview.com. Listen in, continue to check out the blog, and follow me on Twitter @JustinCohee.
Paul Kelly/TJ O'Brien: After using his reach effectively in the first, O'Brien eventually folded to Kelly's pressure and was finished in the 2nd round when he couldn't escape punches and elbows from the crucifix position. Kelly continues to be a tough guy at 155 and really showed some great heart after getting beat up a bit in the first. I'd like to see him take on fellow Brit Terry Etim while O'Brien could get a fellow newcomer to the UFC.
Edson Barboza/Mike Lullo: This was the first time I had seen Barboza fight, and man was I impressed. Lullo had his moments and even showed some pretty decent rubber guard, but he had nothing for Barboza's brutal leg kicks. Some people are comparing Barboza to Jose Aldo, but I'm going to save those kind of comparisons for when I see him fight a little more. For a future match-up Lullo could take on TJ O'Brien in a winner keeps their job match. For Barboza, I think he needs to be brought up slowly, so fights with Aaron Riley or Paul Taylor could be ways to go.
Dennis Hallman/Karo Parisyan: Not much to report with this fight. Hallman quickly knocked down a clearly out of shape Parisyan early in the first and finished him with hammer fists. Big Tan Dan may have been a little quick with the stoppage, but I don't see how Parisyan would have done anything more than take more unanswered fists to the face. Dana White has already stated that Karo is done with the UFC and I think that's a smart move. Until Karo can get his shit together and get in shape he's not going to be able to compete against UFC caliber fighters. As for Hallman, I like the idea of a third fight with Hughes, but it doesn't seem like the UFC agrees. If not Hughes I say match up Hallman with Jake Ellenberger makes sense as both are on winning streaks and Ellenberger is without an opponent due to last minute changes.
Mark Munoz/Aaron Simpson: This fight was a little sloppy at times, but it was a good scrap to open up the show on Spike. Both men are heavy handed and threw caution to the wind on multiple occasions. The fight was marred by some bad officiating, though, as the ring official called for a horrendous stand up and allowed Simpson to recover from an eye poke that was simply a punch to the face (much like Sakara v. Irvin). Munoz eventually went on to win a unanimous decision in a super close fight that I'm shocked wasn't a split decision in the end. For Munoz, I say give him CB Dollaway while Simpson should get Nick Catone or Gerald Harris.
Brian Foster/Matt Brown: I am quickly becoming a Brian Foster fan. Despite the fact that he has lost some fights to guys like Rick Story and Chris Lytle, the guy is still extremely dangerous on the feet and on the mat. Foster really showed some great ground and pound and had some nice grappling transitions with Brown as well. Unfortunately for Brown, though, he left his head out for the taking for a split second and Foster was able to snag the quick guillotine. I'd love to see Foster get in the cage with Rory MacDonald, the fighter he replaced in this fight. For Brown, he very well could be cut, but if he is given another shot I say a fight with John Hathaway or Matt Riddle makes sense.
George Sotiropoulos/Joe Lauzon: After the first round I really thought Lauzon was going to get the win. His striking looked faster and he was landing the much harder shots. He was also defending the takedown and early submission attempts as well. When the second round started, however, Lauzon was noticeably tired and that's when Sotiropoulos took over. Joe Rogan really nailed it on the head when he stated that Sotiropoulos has some of the best transitions in MMA. After getting Lauzon to the mat and masterfully moved from guard, to side control, to mount and eventually to North/South, Sotiropoulos finished Lauzon with a kimura, much like he did with George Roop at UFC 101. Lauzon's conditioning really was the difference maker, and unless he improves in that area he very could settle in as a gatekeeper at 155. For Lauzon I think a fight with the loser of Jim Miller/Charles Oliveira would be great. Apparently Sotiropoulos will be getting Dennis Siver next, which seem like a step back in competition. I'd rather see George get the winner of Kenny Florian/Evan Dunham.
Phil Davis/Tim Boetsch: Once again Phil Davis shows why he is one of the hottest up and comers in the UFC. While his striking is still a work in progress, Davis's wrestling and mat awareness are great and fun to watch. Boetsch hung tough and even threatened with a guillotine at one point, but was eventually forced to tap to a modified kimura/hammerlock that is being called the "Mr. Wonderful." Tough loss for Boetsch, but he should get another chance with the UFC. I think a fight with Steve Cantwell or Kyle Kingsbury would make sense. As for Phil Davis, a fight with Matyushenko or Matt Hamill would be a nice step up for competition without rushing Davis too far too fast.
Gerald Harris/Maiquel Falcao: Harris might have lost a decision, but he really lost the fight in the first round. The round looked as if it going to be a feeling out affair until Falcao blasted Harris with a flurry of punches. Falcao eventually got Harris's back and locked on a RNC, but it looked as if Harris was saved by the bell. Falcao seemed to hold the choke a little longer than he should have as he held it after the bell and had to be pulled off by the referee. It has been reported, though, that the round was called about 6 seconds too early, an additional 6 seconds that Harris would not have lasted considering that he was nearly tapping anyways. The rest of the fight, especially the third round, turned out to be uneventful and Falcao was awarded the decision. I'm a Gerald Harris fan considering how nice he was when he spoke to me and my friends, so I'm a little bummed he lost, but I think he'll be able to rebound nicely. Fights with Tom Lawlor or Alessio Sakara (a fight that was scheduled and then eventually canceled) could be fun while Falcao could be matched up with Brian Stann or Rich Attonito.
BJ Penn/Matt Hughes: Not much to report here as Penn knocked Hughes out cold with strikes just 21 seconds into the fight. A stated earlier, I'd like to see Hughes get Hallman, but if the UFC decides to go another way I think fights with Martin Kampmann or Diego Sanchez would be a lot of fun. Penn has already been matched up with Jon Fitch, and I have to say that I am super excited to see that fight go down.
Lyoto Machida/Rampage Jackson: From what I've been reading over the past couple of days, I've seen a number of varying opinions as to who won this fight. Personally, I gave the fight to Rampage as I thought he won the first two rounds. The third round was clearly all Machida, but I didn't think it was enough to steal the fight. I need to rewatch the first round to be sure, but Rampage's aggressiveness and strikes did more for me than Machida's leg kicks. For Rampage, I say give him the winner of Griffin/Franklin and then you can give Machida the loser.
Once again, thanks to everyone who has been checking out the blog and be sure to listen to me on the Tom Van Stone Show on Wrestleview.com. Listen in, continue to check out the blog, and follow me on Twitter @JustinCohee.
Friday, November 19, 2010
UFC 123 Predictions
What's up everybody, I know it has been a while but between work, job hunting, etc. the blog has suffered, but I really hope to change that over the coming weeks. A lot has gone on during my little absence, particularly the merger of the UFC and WEC. I plan on writing a little something about it, especially some fantasy match-ups I'd like to see. For now, though, I'm just going to do some quick predictions for the fights this weekend.
Also, I'm going to be doing some guest spots on Thomas Van Stone's Internet radio show on Wrestleview.com. The site is primarily directed towards pro-wrestling, but the radio shows covering everything from pro-wrestling to MMA as well as other sports and even politics. Only VIP members of the site can listen, but at only $4.99 a month it's not a bad deal at all and you'll get to hear MMA talk from yours truly. Anyways on to my predictions.
Gerald Harris vs. Maiquel Falcao: Since joining the UFC, Harris has gone 3-0 against highly touted UFC newcomers, and on Saturday night Harris gets his fourth prospect. I have not seen Falcao fight, but from what I've read he's a Chute Boxe member with 21 knockouts in 25 career wins. Falcao seems to be a quick starter as most of his wins come early in the first round. If Falcao wants to win here he'll need get that early finish, because a longer fight favors Harris greatly and he'll be able to use his wrestling, slams, and ground and pound to out work Falcao. Falcao could come out and bull rush Harris, but I'm taking the guy with more octagon experience. I'll take Harris via 2nd or 3rd round TKO.
Tim Boetsch vs. Phil Davis: Both men have wrestling backgrounds, but Davis has All-American caliber wrestling from his time spent at Penn State, while Boetsch has turned into more of a brawler. Boetsch will likely be the better striker as that is an area that Davis is still working on, but unless Boetsch catches Davis, I don't see how he can win this fight. I look for Davis to take Boetsch down, work top control and GnP, and maybe even try to sneak in a submission. Boetsch is a tough fighter, but it won't be enough to stop Davis from finishing him in the 3rd or taking a commanding decision.
Joe Lauzon vs. George Sotiropoulos: I love this fight, as it's not only a great match-up, but it could also have some title shot implications. Both fighters are coming off big wins as Lauzon ripped through Gabe Ruedigger in the most dominant win of his career and Sotiropoulos has gone 6-0 since joining the UFC and holds wins over Joe Stevenson and Kurt Pellegrino. Lauzon has good striking to go with great takedowns and a smooth ground game. Sotiropoulos has boxing experience and also has some super slick BJJ thanks to his time spent at 10th Planet with Eddie Bravo. Sotiropoulos will be the bigger fighter and I think that will make a difference in this fight. Sotiropoulos can hold his own on the feet and should the fight hit the mat Sotiropoulos has some of the best transitions I've seen, and he's great off his back. Lauzon can certainly hold his own on the mat, and mixes his strikes and takedowns very well, but I think Sotiropoulos is on too much of a hot streak right now and will win a close decision and maybe a title shot.
Matt Hughes vs. BJ Penn: When this fight was first announced I had a little trouble getting excited for it, but over time I've warmed up to it. Hughes is certainly winding down in his career, but we're still unsure as to where Penn is. Is Penn winding down as well, or did he just find his foil with Frankie Edgar? Personally, I would have liked to have seen Penn take some more fights at 155 first, but it makes sense for him to take big fights like this and make the big money. Hughes has been on a roll as of late and has some much-improved striking in those bouts, but I'm still don't think his boxing will match up well with Penn's. Penn's jab is just too good at this stage of his career and if the fight stays on the feet, it will be a long night for Hughes and end up looking like the Sherk/Penn fight. Should the fight hit the mat, though, Hughes could use his size and strength advantage to keep Penn on his back. This is my coin flip fight of the night, but I'm leaning towards Hughes to take a decision or late TKO. I just think he'll be able to take Penn down and tire him out. If Penn defends the takedown, though, he'll just pick Hughes apart.
Lyoto Machida vs. Rampage Jackson: For the main event of the evening we get a match-up between two former champions who are coming off of losses, looking to get back into the title picture. Machida most recently lost by brutal KO to Shogun Rua while Rampage lost a one-sided decisions to Rashad Evans. Rampage is much more of a power puncher/boxer, but still manages to show good defense, something he will certainly need here. Machida's elusiveness and counter-striking have given several UFC fighters trouble in the past, and we could very well see more of the same come Saturday. Rampage may think that bull rushing Machida will work like it worked for Rua, but Rampage's attacks aren't nearly as varied as Rua's and Rampage will come in swinging first instead of making Machida punch first like Rua did as well. I see this fight being a typical Machida fight as Rampage will come in swinging and Machida will peck away at him over three rounds. If Machida does finish Rampage it'll be late in the fight, but I look for it to be a decision in Machida's favor.
Image From Bleacherreport.com
Friday, October 22, 2010
UFC 121 Predictions
Sorry for not getting this up sooner. I've been putting in more hours at the internship, and I just found out I passed the VA Bar Exam, so I've been trying to get my life into order. I couldn't find Bellator's show on my cable box last night, so I had to settle for reading results. A few things that happened last night have gotten me thinking about some new entries I could do, but for now let's get to my UFC 121 predictions.
Brendan Schaub vs. Gabriel Gonzaga: This is a great fight where you have a new up and comer versus one of the perennial contenders. Schaub looked great on TUF showing both strong hands and slick grappling, but lost in the finale when he was knocked out by Roy Nelson. Since then he's gone on to quickly finish his last two opponents. Schaub trains with Nate Marquardt and Shane Carwin at Grudge in Colorado, so he's got a good group of guys helping him prepare for this fight, especially since Carwin has a win over Gonzaga. Gabriel Gonzaga was finished by Junior Dos Santos in his last fight and also has losses to Carwin, Werdum, and Couture, but every one of his losses has come from the elite of the HW division. Gonzaga is a phenomenal grappler, but is good standing up and has sick leg and head kicks. If Schaub can keep this fight standing he has the power to put out Gonzaga's lights, and can certainly hold his own on the mat. Gonzaga, as I said earlier, is good on the feet, but even better on the ground thanks to his BJJ. If I were Gonzaga I'd try and get this fight down as soon as possible. This is a real coin flip fight for me, but I think I'm going to take Gonzaga by decision due to his experience.
Matt Hamill vs. Tito Ortiz: I'm not quite sure how I feel about this fight. I like Hamill in that he's a great story, but his sloppy boxing and poor defense show that he's not going to reach the top of the division anytime soon. Ortiz is simply in the twilight of his career and isn't near the fighter he was during his championship run. Hamill won his last fight against Jardine thanks to the fact that the guy can take one hell of a punch. He's also a tremendous wrestler, but doesn't really seem to use it all that often. Ortiz has subpar boxing, but has has good takedowns and ground and pound. Unfortunately for Ortiz he's going to have a real tough time getting Hamill down, and for all his striking deficiencies, Hamill is a better kick boxer than Ortiz. Ortiz will shoot, but likely fail, and even if he manages to hit Hamill, Hamill will walk right through them and pick Ortiz apart on his way to a decision or late TKO stoppage.
Paulo Thiago vs. Diego Sanchez: When this fight was first announced I got excited, but after Sanchez's recent comments, I don't know if he's taking it as seriously as he should. Sanchez stated that after this fight he's going to return to 155 and make a run for the title. While I think a return to 155 is a good idea, it makes me wonder how much time he spent putting mass back on for this fight. In his last fight against John Hathaway, Sanchez didn't look like he was in the best shape, so if he's planning to go right back to 155 I'm concerned that he didn't prepare for the fight as well as he should have. On the other hand, Sanchez has returned to Jackson's to train for this fight, so he'll definitely have a great corner working for him. Sanchez's strength is his tenacity, and he'll definitely look to put the pressure on Thiago here. Both fighters are good strikers, but Thiago isn't as predictable as Sanchez is. Thiago will also have the advantage when it comes to BJJ, but Sanchez has shown time and time again that his wrestling and ground and pound are hard to deal with. That being said, I look for Thiago to use his striking to keep Sanchez at bay, and even if the fight hits the mat, Thiago's BJJ will allow him to give Sanchez fits. I'm going with Paulo here via decision.
Jake Shields vs. Martin Kampmann: After months of talk, Jake Shields finally makes his UFC debut against a very tough Martin Kampmann. Shields is a former Elite XC Welterweight champ and former Strikeforce Middleweight champ. Shields will be going back to 170 for this fight, and I think it's a good move. Shields is primarily a wrestler with smothering ground control, but he also has good submissions. Kampmann is a Dutch Muay Thai champ, but is extremely talented on the mat as well. Shields most recently dominated Dan Henderson and Kampmann is coming off a commanding decision win over Paulo Thiago. Kampmann is likely the better striker, but while he is a good grappler, Shields is even better and has handled talented grapplers like Mayhem Miller. Kampmann isn't as much of an underdog as some people may think he is, but I still don't see him winning this fight. I see this fight going a lot like most Jake Shields fights go with Shield gaining top control and working GnP and submission for a majority of the fight. Shields could pull out a submission late in the fight, but I'll take him winning by decision.
Brock Lesnar vs. Cain Velasquez: HOOOOOLLLLLYYYYYY CRAP I am so so excited for this fight. Lesnar the casual fan favorite versus the hardcore fans pick for the fighter most likely to dethrone the champ. Both men are tremendous athletes with wrestling backgrounds. Lesnar will have a significant size and weight advantage, but Velasquez is a much better all around striker. Velasquez also has a ton of power in his hands as evidenced by his appearance on Sports Science. Lesnar recently brought in a new boxing coach to work on his fundamentals, so while he has a lot of power, his basic skill set is still in need of work. Lesnar will want to get this fight to the mat and work his vicious ground and pound, and I think Velasquez will want to keep the fight standing and pick Lesnar apart with his striking and speed advantage. Both guys has excellent conditioning so I wouldn't be surprised to see this fight make it to the championship rounds. This is an incredibly difficult pick considering how talented both men are, but I'm going to go with my gut and pick Velasquez via a 4th or 5th round TKO stoppage.
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