UFC 121 Predictions

Sorry for not getting this up sooner. I've been putting in more hours at the internship, and I just found out I passed the VA Bar Exam, so I've been trying to get my life into order. I couldn't find Bellator's show on my cable box last night, so I had to settle for reading results. A few things that happened last night have gotten me thinking about some new entries I could do, but for now let's get to my UFC 121 predictions.

Brendan Schaub vs. Gabriel Gonzaga: This is a great fight where you have a new up and comer versus one of the perennial contenders. Schaub looked great on TUF showing both strong hands and slick grappling, but lost in the finale when he was knocked out by Roy Nelson. Since then he's gone on to quickly finish his last two opponents. Schaub trains with Nate Marquardt and Shane Carwin at Grudge in Colorado, so he's got a good group of guys helping him prepare for this fight, especially since Carwin has a win over Gonzaga. Gabriel Gonzaga was finished by Junior Dos Santos in his last fight and also has losses to Carwin, Werdum, and Couture, but every one of his losses has come from the elite of the HW division. Gonzaga is a phenomenal grappler, but is good standing up and has sick leg and head kicks. If Schaub can keep this fight standing he has the power to put out Gonzaga's lights, and can certainly hold his own on the mat. Gonzaga, as I said earlier, is good on the feet, but even better on the ground thanks to his BJJ. If I were Gonzaga I'd try and get this fight down as soon as possible. This is a real coin flip fight for me, but I think I'm going to take Gonzaga by decision due to his experience.

Matt Hamill vs. Tito Ortiz: I'm not quite sure how I feel about this fight. I like Hamill in that he's a great story, but his sloppy boxing and poor defense show that he's not going to reach the top of the division anytime soon. Ortiz is simply in the twilight of his career and isn't near the fighter he was during his championship run. Hamill won his last fight against Jardine thanks to the fact that the guy can take one hell of a punch. He's also a tremendous wrestler, but doesn't really seem to use it all that often. Ortiz has subpar boxing, but has has good takedowns and ground and pound. Unfortunately for Ortiz he's going to have a real tough time getting Hamill down, and for all his striking deficiencies, Hamill is a better kick boxer than Ortiz. Ortiz will shoot, but likely fail, and even if he manages to hit Hamill, Hamill will walk right through them and pick Ortiz apart on his way to a decision or late TKO stoppage.

Paulo Thiago vs. Diego Sanchez: When this fight was first announced I got excited, but after Sanchez's recent comments, I don't know if he's taking it as seriously as he should. Sanchez stated that after this fight he's going to return to 155 and make a run for the title. While I think a return to 155 is a good idea, it makes me wonder how much time he spent putting mass back on for this fight. In his last fight against John Hathaway, Sanchez didn't look like he was in the best shape, so if he's planning to go right back to 155 I'm concerned that he didn't prepare for the fight as well as he should have. On the other hand, Sanchez has returned to Jackson's to train for this fight, so he'll definitely have a great corner working for him. Sanchez's strength is his tenacity, and he'll definitely look to put the pressure on Thiago here. Both fighters are good strikers, but Thiago isn't as predictable as Sanchez is. Thiago will also have the advantage when it comes to BJJ, but Sanchez has shown time and time again that his wrestling and ground and pound are hard to deal with. That being said, I look for Thiago to use his striking to keep Sanchez at bay, and even if the fight hits the mat, Thiago's BJJ will allow him to give Sanchez fits. I'm going with Paulo here via decision.

Jake Shields vs. Martin Kampmann: After months of talk, Jake Shields finally makes his UFC debut against a very tough Martin Kampmann. Shields is a former Elite XC Welterweight champ and former Strikeforce Middleweight champ. Shields will be going back to 170 for this fight, and I think it's a good move. Shields is primarily a wrestler with smothering ground control, but he also has good submissions. Kampmann is a Dutch Muay Thai champ, but is extremely talented on the mat as well. Shields most recently dominated Dan Henderson and Kampmann is coming off a commanding decision win over Paulo Thiago. Kampmann is likely the better striker, but while he is a good grappler, Shields is even better and has handled talented grapplers like Mayhem Miller. Kampmann isn't as much of an underdog as some people may think he is, but I still don't see him winning this fight. I see this fight going a lot like most Jake Shields fights go with Shield gaining top control and working GnP and submission for a majority of the fight. Shields could pull out a submission late in the fight, but I'll take him winning by decision.

Brock Lesnar vs. Cain Velasquez: HOOOOOLLLLLYYYYYY CRAP I am so so excited for this fight. Lesnar the casual fan favorite versus the hardcore fans pick for the fighter most likely to dethrone the champ. Both men are tremendous athletes with wrestling backgrounds. Lesnar will have a significant size and weight advantage, but Velasquez is a much better all around striker. Velasquez also has a ton of power in his hands as evidenced by his appearance on Sports Science. Lesnar recently brought in a new boxing coach to work on his fundamentals, so while he has a lot of power, his basic skill set is still in need of work. Lesnar will want to get this fight to the mat and work his vicious ground and pound, and I think Velasquez will want to keep the fight standing and pick Lesnar apart with his striking and speed advantage. Both guys has excellent conditioning so I wouldn't be surprised to see this fight make it to the championship rounds. This is an incredibly difficult pick considering how talented both men are, but I'm going to go with my gut and pick Velasquez via a 4th or 5th round TKO stoppage.

Image From Wikipedia

UFC 120 Post Fight Thoughts

Gustafsson/Diabate: This fight was an absolute beating. Diabate looked sharp in his octagon debut against Luis Cane, but he was overwhelmed by Gustafsson. I was really impressed with Gustafsson's striking as he was able to drop Diabate several times and then eventually use his superior grappling skills to get the RNC. I'd like to see Gustafsson get someone like Tim Boetsch or Jason Brilz and Diabate could be faced with Steve Cantwell or Kyle Kingsbury.

Kongo/Browne: Kongo is seriously a dirty, cheating fighter. Every time he fights you're guaranteed to see some low blows, and in this fight we not only saw a low blow but constant grabbing of Browne's shorts, even after a point deduction. Browne didn't look great with his strikes in the first, but they were definitely landing. Kongo looked OK in the second round, but was unable to implement his usual gameplan and had to settle for his sketchy knees to Browne's legs. Browne could take on Matt Mitrione, Ben Rothwell or Christian Morecraft, and the same could be done for Kongo.

Hathaway/Pyle: Man Pyle impressed the hell out of me with this performance. He dominated Hathaway all three rounds, and almost finished Hathaway with a crazy triangle in the second. People are hating on Hathaway and saying he was overrated and his win over Sanchez wasn't that impressive due to Sanchez being out of shape and having camp issues. I think that's a cop out considering Hathaway DOMINATED Sanchez and also has wins over tough guys like Paul Taylor and Rick Story. Pyle just used better grappling and some awesome takedowns to get the win. For Hathaway I say give him Claude Patrick and I'd like to see Pyle get Mike Swick or Dan Hardy.

Condit/Hardy: WOW talk about a sick sick KO. I seriously thought Hardy would use superior boxing skills to cruise to a decision victory, and I certainly didn't think Condit had the power to drop Hardy like that. I always figured Condit for a volume puncher versus power, but he showed everyone that he can put someone down with one shot. Huge win for Condit, and hopefully he'll get a game opponent in his next fight like Jon Fitch or the Kampmann/Shield winner. As for Hardy, I could see him getting matched with Anthony Johnson or Chris Lytle.

Bisping/Akiyama: Not a whole lot to report on this one. Akiyama looked for bombs while Bisping remained technical and took a unanimous decision. Bisping continues to make noise in the 185 division, but has yet to defeat a top 10 guy, which is keeping him out of the title picture. A win over someone like Demian Maia could help him, but with most of the top 185ers tied up at the moment, we'll have to wait and see what is next for the Brit. As for Akiyama, he is yet another Japanese star to come to an American fight organization and fail to impress. Fights with Wanderlei Silva, Dan Miller, or Palhares could be fun, but I'm not sure if the UFC will want to give him something a little less competitive so that Akiyama can rebound.

UFC 120 Thoughts & Predictions

This Saturday UFC 120 will take place at the O2 Arena in London, England, and will be aired for free on Spike TV. There won't be any title fights, but there are some good match-ups, so let's get to them.

Claude Patrick vs. James Wilks: Ultimate Fighter winner James Wilks makes his return to the cage to face fellow submission specialist Claude Patrick. After winning the Ultimate Fighter by submitting DaMarques Johnson at the finale, Wilks was matched up against Matt Brown. Wilks lost the fight by TKO, but bounced back with a decision win over Peter Sobotta back in June. Patrick made his debut at the same event and defeated Ricardo Funch via submission, the ninth submission victory of his twelve wins. Patrick's lone career loss came to UFC-vet Drew McFedries in the second fight of his career. Both men are well versed in submissions, as evidenced by their records, but it is difficult for me to make an informed decision as I have not had the opportunity to see Patrick fight. Wilks looked good against Johnson, but really wilted under the pressure that Brown was able to put on him. After Brown escaped a Wilks submission attempt, Wilks looked defeated and was eventually pounded out. Patrick seems to favor the guillotine as half of his wins have come via that choke, and while he is very talented, I question if Wilks is truly UFC material. I'll take Patrick by submission as he seems to have a knack for catching necks.

Cheick Kongo vs. Travis Browne: After consecutive, devastating losses to Cain Velasquez and Frank Mir, Kongo got back into the win column after decimating Paul Buentello, making him tap due to strikes. Kongo is a talented kickboxer and has shown excellent ground and pound, but he seems to falter when faced with someone can turn the tables and take him to the mat. Browne made his UFC debut June, and easily defeated James McSweeney. Browne is undefeated and only one of his fights has gone the distance. I've seen Kongo fight many times, so I know what he brings to the table. He is a very strong striker who can easily toss someone to the mat, and rain down brutal punches. I've only seen Browne fight the one time against McSweeney, so it's hard to say what kind of fighter he is considering the fight lasted only 30 seconds. Browne is the bigger, taller fighter here, but I think Kongo will continue his reputation the guy who can beat most everyone, except for the best. I'll take Kongo via TKO as he'll continually dump Browne to the mat and beat him up.

John Hathaway vs. Mike Pyle: Pyle, from what I've heard, is the Wilson Gouveia of Xtreme Couture. That is, he's extremely talented in the gym and receives high praise from his teammates, but once he's in the cage, it's a coin flip. Pyle has collected wins over Chris Wilson and Jesse Lennox, but has also been defeated by Jake Ellenberger and Brock Larson. On the other hand, Hathaway is undefeated and most recently defeated Diego Sanchez in a very one-sided fight. I've sung Hathaway's praises in previous entries, so I'll try to keep it in check here. Hathaway has shown several times that he has an excellent jab thanks to his frame, and is very capable on the ground, especially his ground and pound. Pyle was able to survive Ellenberger's GnP for a round, but eventually couldn't deal with it. I think this will be a very similar fight for Pyle as he'll get lit up on the feet, and will only be able to defend himself against an onslaught of punches for a limited time. I'm taking Hathaway via TKO.

Dan Hardy vs. Carlos Condit: When I first heard about this match-up, I was thinking that this was a bit much for Condit, considering Hardy is coming off of a title fight and Condit was losing his last fight before finishing (a sketchy finish at that) Rory MacDonald with only 7 seconds left in the third round. After thinking about it, though, this fight has a lot of potential to be Fight of the Night. Condit has shown in the past that he is talented on the feet as well as the mat. Hardy, on the other hand, is primarily a striker, but showed in his fight against GSP that he is tough enough to survive dangerous situations. I don't think Condit is nearly as strong as GSP, though, so Hardy might be able to escape situations should Condit take him down. Hardy will want to keep this fight standing, and I think Condit will be happy to comply. Unfortunately for Condit, I think Hardy is the better, more technical, and stronger puncher. I see this fight going a lot like Hardy's fight with Mike Swick. Hardy will get the better of the stand-up and maybe rock Condit a few times, but I think Condit is too tough to finish here. I'll take Hardy by decision.

Michael Bisping vs. Yoshihiro Akiyama: Am I the only one who finds it strange that Akiyama is headlining an event despite the fact that he is coming off a loss, and is a relative unknown to the casual MMA fan? Maybe it's his international appeal, but after barely beating Alan Belcher, dealing with a long lay-off, and then losing to Chris Leben (who had fought 2 weeks prior) I just don't get it. Also, Akiyama could really cut down to 170, but as with many Japanese fighters, weight cutting doesn't seem to be a priority or a concern really. Sexyama is a judo practitioner, but also has some big power in his hands. Bisping is probably the more technical striker, but he has a bad habit of pulling his punches, causing them to lose power. Bisping is good at defending the takedown, though, and will also have a much bigger gas tank, as Akiyama looked dead in the third against Leben. I see this being a typical Bisping fight as he'll use his superior foot work and speed to peck away at Akiyama and cruise to a decision victory.

(Image from MMAResolutions.com)

MMA Judging: How Do You Fix The Problem?

Let me start off by letting you all know that my friend and GTS contributor, Bryan Peden, has started his own MMA website called "MMAtters." You should all check it out at www.mmatters.weebly.com. Feel free to check out the site as well as "like" MMAtters on Facebook. GTS will be getting it's own Facebook page in the very near future so keep an eye out for that as well.

I guess what really inspired this next post was the absolute robbery of a decision that was awarded to Sean Sherk over Evan Dunham at UFC 119. I definitely believe that Sherk won the first round thanks to his takedowns, ground control, and the cut he gave Dunham, but I thought Dunham overwhelmed Sherk with strikes in rounds 2 and 3, defended the takedown well, got up quickly when he was taken down, and even had several close submission attempts. At the end of the fight, though, Sherk was announced as the winner via split-decision, an announcement that was followed by a deafening chorus of boos. Dunham has taken the high ride since the loss and has blamed himself for not finishing the fight, despite the fact that even UFC President Dana White has stated several times that Dunham won that fight. Unfortunately, this isn't the first time a decision has been botched, and it certainly won't be the last (see Leonard Garcia's last 3 fights), but the question is ... How do you fix MMA judging?

GIVE THE JUDGES MONITORS: This seems like a pretty easy fix to me. Judges, despite sitting cage/ring-side, simply are not going to have the vantage points that are made available when watching the fight on a TV/monitor. Between the cage itself, camera crews, referees, and the position of the fighters, it is impossible for a judge to see everything from their seat with their own eyes. If the judges had monitors placed in front of them, then they could easily see every punch thrown(and whether it actually lands), every small transition made on the mat, etc. Monitors simply would allow judges to see everything they are missing by giving them angles and close ups that they are just not going to get otherwise. The scary thing, though, is that at a lot of events, monitors are placed in front of the judges, but they are never plugged in a turned on. That, to me, is completely asinine. I mean if the monitor is there and it gives you a better opportunity to make the right call, then why not use it?

TRAIN THE JUDGES: The worst part about most MMA judges, is that they really have no idea what they are watching. Most of these judges are coming over from boxing, and don't understand the intricacies of the clinch, takedowns, ground control, transitions, submission attempts, takedown defense, fighters working off their back, leg kicks, etc. If judges actually knew what they were watching, then rounds can be awarded to fighters based on actual knowledge versus awarding rounds based on personal belief. I've read articles in the past where a fighter would be working a submission, and a judge would ask someone close to them, "what is he trying to do?" Occurrences like that are inexcusable and are costing fighters fights, which in turn affects their purses and their livelihood. If Athletic Commissions could start bring in MMA instructors to do simple work shops for judges, then maybe the judges would be able to gain the proper knowledge of the sport to judge it correctly. I think it's also important that fans of the sport look into getting into judging as well as a casual UFC fan likely has a better understanding of the fight than most judges.

TWEEK THE POINT SYSTEM: Tweeking the current point system used to score MMA may be difficult, but I do think it is possible. Currently MMA is using the same 10 Point system used in boxing where the winner of the round is awarded 10 points and the loser of the round is awarded 9 or less. While it might be the best system at the moment, I still find it strange that a scoring system for one sport (boxing) is being used for one that not only includes boxing, but kickboxing, muay thai, wrestling, judo, BJJ, etc. Bryan and I had a discussion regarding scoring, and we both agreed that certain techniques are being given too much weight over others. For example, one takedown should not be given more points than a solid punch to the face. This likely goes back to training and educating the judges, but a takedown that results in the downed fighter immediately getting to his feet should not be given more deference than a solid leg kick, because when you actually think about it, which technique actually caused more damage? I think judges need to not be afraid to score a round 10-10 and I also think adopting some idea from Pride/Japanese MMA would work as well. What I like about that particular scoring system is that at the end of a fight, the judges would pick a winner based on you that they won the "fight", not who won the most rounds. I like to use the Michael Bisping/Wanderlei Silva fight as an example. Under the current system Wanderlei won a decision as he was awarded rounds 2 and 3. Bisping won round 1, but round 2 was very close, and round 3 ended with Silva knocking Bisping down and nearly finishing him. In what was a close decision under the current system, under a system like that used in Pride, Silva would've have been awarded the decision because at the end of the fight he was standing over Bisping raining down punches. The fight may have been close based on singular rounds, but when the final bell is rung and Wanderlei is standing over a nearly unconscious and bloody Bisping, it's pretty clear who just won a fight.

These are just a few things that I've thought about that could fix judging, so feel free to agree or disagree with me and sound off in the comments section.

Guest Post: Bryan Peden's P4P List

The WEC was nice enough to give us a great fight card on the versus network for free, so if you didn’t see it last night you can still find it somewhere on the internet most likely. I have nothing against giving my thoughts on a card and hearing what everyone else has to say but that is not what this post is going to be about. For those of you that don’t know Jose Aldo fought last night and won in spectacular fashion, once again, against a game opponent in Manny Gamburyan. With Aldo having three consecutive title fights (two title defenses) and finishing two of the three in the manner that he did I thought to myself . . . How does he now fall in THE POUND FOR POUND LIST? So I did some research.

MMAWeekly.com has the feather weight (145 lbs) rankings as Aldo, Gamburyan, Brown, Faber as 1-4 respectively, so that’s good for business. Current #1 ranked fighters in their weight classes include 135 Dominick Cruise: 1-0 vs #2 ranked Brian Bowles and 2-0 vs #4 ranked Joseph Benavidez. 155 Frankie Edgar: 2-0 vs #5 ranked B.J. Penn. 170 George St. Pierre: 1-0 vs #2, #3, #4 who are Fitch, Koscheck and Alvez. 185 Anderson Silva: 1-0 vs #2, #4, #5, #6 (#3 shields isn’t going to fight at 185 in the near future so these are essentially #2-#5) Sonnen, Marquardt, Maia and Henderson. 205 Mauricio Rua: 1-1 vs #2 Machida and 1-0 vs #4 and #5 Rampage Jackson and little Nog. 265 Brock Lesnar: Has not beaten any of the CURRENT top 5 ranked fighters. Like it or hate it I developed my own top 10 pound for pound list.

#1 George St. Pierre (20-2) - No one can dictate where they want the fight to be better the George. He has the best MMA related wrestling in the business and can finish you on the feet or on the ground. With a win over Koscheck and a possible future fight with Jake Shields he wont have much business left in the welterweight division and can make a run at the middleweights to further cement his number 1 status.

#2 Anderson Silva (27-4) – Everyone knows that if you stand with Anderson and he wants to finish you, he can and will. He has shown off his bjj black belt skills lately with a come from behind victory over Sonnen where he also showed the desire of a true champion. He didn’t really test the waters of the bigger 205 pound division, he dove in head first and defeated former champion Forrest Griffin making one of the best highlight reels of MMA.

#3 Jose Aldo (17-1) – I do not know who is next for him after his KO of Gamburyan, but does it matter? He is as dynamic of a striker as fellow Brazilian Anderson Silva. Although we haven’t seen it too much due to solid take down defense he also is rumored to have very dangerous bjj skills as well. Oh yeah, he just turned 24!!!

#4 Jon Fitch (23-3) – 2 of his 3 losses were eight years ago and the other one was against my #1 P4P GSP. He has very technical kick boxing skills and can impose his will on almost anyone his wrestling. His BJJ skills are very much underrated because he mostly uses them for position rather than submissions. Earlier in his career he fought and won at 205 and 185.

#5 Mauricio Rua (19-4) - He is the champion of one of the most stacked divisions in any organization. He lost a highly disputed championship fight to my #9 Machida and then redeemed himself with KO in their second meeting. 16 wins by KO/TKO give a good picture of his capabilities on his feet while he uses his advanced BJJ skills to nullify submissions and stand back up to use his stand up weapons.

#6 Frankie Edgar (13-1) - The Answer has only been riddled once and he gets a chance at redemption in just a few months to fight the man that gave him the smudge on his career. B.J. Penn is still B.J. Penn which means that a win over him puts your name on the map. Fortunately his name was already on the map so he landed on the P4P list.

#7 Jake Shields (25-4) - Making the move to the stacked welterweight division of the UFC will prove a lot of what Shields has been showing us all along. He is a great fighter. He out wrestled former Olympian Dan Henderson at 185 while he can comfortably fight at 170. 3 of his losses were over eight years ago and he is on a 14 fight win streak which is more fights than #10 and just as many as #6.

#8 Fedor Emilianenko (31-2) – Yes his last fight resulted in a loss, yes everyone wants
him to go to the UFC to fight Brock and the other star studded cast of UFC’s heavyweight division. Strikeforce has a solid heavy weight division as well and with his powerful hands and slick BJJ he should not be looked down upon after his last fight.

#9 Lyoto Machida (16-1) – I’ve stubbed my toes more times today than Machida gets hit in a fight, and I haven’t even gotten out of bed yet. He is one of the most elusive fighters I have ever seen with lightning fast punches and kicks he is a dangerous man. With good take downs and submission skills he stays on the list after his last loss.

#10 Brock Lesnar (5-1) – The only reason I got turned down by an MLB team was because I was too old, not because I haven’t played in over ten years. Well that’s not true but it is for Brock when he tried out for the NFL’s Vikings. He is a freak athlete who is still young in this game. He already has the wrestling credentials to beat anyone and with his submission in his last fight and a win in his next fight we could see the not so little guy in the top 5.