UFC 121 Predictions

Sorry for not getting this up sooner. I've been putting in more hours at the internship, and I just found out I passed the VA Bar Exam, so I've been trying to get my life into order. I couldn't find Bellator's show on my cable box last night, so I had to settle for reading results. A few things that happened last night have gotten me thinking about some new entries I could do, but for now let's get to my UFC 121 predictions.

Brendan Schaub vs. Gabriel Gonzaga: This is a great fight where you have a new up and comer versus one of the perennial contenders. Schaub looked great on TUF showing both strong hands and slick grappling, but lost in the finale when he was knocked out by Roy Nelson. Since then he's gone on to quickly finish his last two opponents. Schaub trains with Nate Marquardt and Shane Carwin at Grudge in Colorado, so he's got a good group of guys helping him prepare for this fight, especially since Carwin has a win over Gonzaga. Gabriel Gonzaga was finished by Junior Dos Santos in his last fight and also has losses to Carwin, Werdum, and Couture, but every one of his losses has come from the elite of the HW division. Gonzaga is a phenomenal grappler, but is good standing up and has sick leg and head kicks. If Schaub can keep this fight standing he has the power to put out Gonzaga's lights, and can certainly hold his own on the mat. Gonzaga, as I said earlier, is good on the feet, but even better on the ground thanks to his BJJ. If I were Gonzaga I'd try and get this fight down as soon as possible. This is a real coin flip fight for me, but I think I'm going to take Gonzaga by decision due to his experience.

Matt Hamill vs. Tito Ortiz: I'm not quite sure how I feel about this fight. I like Hamill in that he's a great story, but his sloppy boxing and poor defense show that he's not going to reach the top of the division anytime soon. Ortiz is simply in the twilight of his career and isn't near the fighter he was during his championship run. Hamill won his last fight against Jardine thanks to the fact that the guy can take one hell of a punch. He's also a tremendous wrestler, but doesn't really seem to use it all that often. Ortiz has subpar boxing, but has has good takedowns and ground and pound. Unfortunately for Ortiz he's going to have a real tough time getting Hamill down, and for all his striking deficiencies, Hamill is a better kick boxer than Ortiz. Ortiz will shoot, but likely fail, and even if he manages to hit Hamill, Hamill will walk right through them and pick Ortiz apart on his way to a decision or late TKO stoppage.

Paulo Thiago vs. Diego Sanchez: When this fight was first announced I got excited, but after Sanchez's recent comments, I don't know if he's taking it as seriously as he should. Sanchez stated that after this fight he's going to return to 155 and make a run for the title. While I think a return to 155 is a good idea, it makes me wonder how much time he spent putting mass back on for this fight. In his last fight against John Hathaway, Sanchez didn't look like he was in the best shape, so if he's planning to go right back to 155 I'm concerned that he didn't prepare for the fight as well as he should have. On the other hand, Sanchez has returned to Jackson's to train for this fight, so he'll definitely have a great corner working for him. Sanchez's strength is his tenacity, and he'll definitely look to put the pressure on Thiago here. Both fighters are good strikers, but Thiago isn't as predictable as Sanchez is. Thiago will also have the advantage when it comes to BJJ, but Sanchez has shown time and time again that his wrestling and ground and pound are hard to deal with. That being said, I look for Thiago to use his striking to keep Sanchez at bay, and even if the fight hits the mat, Thiago's BJJ will allow him to give Sanchez fits. I'm going with Paulo here via decision.

Jake Shields vs. Martin Kampmann: After months of talk, Jake Shields finally makes his UFC debut against a very tough Martin Kampmann. Shields is a former Elite XC Welterweight champ and former Strikeforce Middleweight champ. Shields will be going back to 170 for this fight, and I think it's a good move. Shields is primarily a wrestler with smothering ground control, but he also has good submissions. Kampmann is a Dutch Muay Thai champ, but is extremely talented on the mat as well. Shields most recently dominated Dan Henderson and Kampmann is coming off a commanding decision win over Paulo Thiago. Kampmann is likely the better striker, but while he is a good grappler, Shields is even better and has handled talented grapplers like Mayhem Miller. Kampmann isn't as much of an underdog as some people may think he is, but I still don't see him winning this fight. I see this fight going a lot like most Jake Shields fights go with Shield gaining top control and working GnP and submission for a majority of the fight. Shields could pull out a submission late in the fight, but I'll take him winning by decision.

Brock Lesnar vs. Cain Velasquez: HOOOOOLLLLLYYYYYY CRAP I am so so excited for this fight. Lesnar the casual fan favorite versus the hardcore fans pick for the fighter most likely to dethrone the champ. Both men are tremendous athletes with wrestling backgrounds. Lesnar will have a significant size and weight advantage, but Velasquez is a much better all around striker. Velasquez also has a ton of power in his hands as evidenced by his appearance on Sports Science. Lesnar recently brought in a new boxing coach to work on his fundamentals, so while he has a lot of power, his basic skill set is still in need of work. Lesnar will want to get this fight to the mat and work his vicious ground and pound, and I think Velasquez will want to keep the fight standing and pick Lesnar apart with his striking and speed advantage. Both guys has excellent conditioning so I wouldn't be surprised to see this fight make it to the championship rounds. This is an incredibly difficult pick considering how talented both men are, but I'm going to go with my gut and pick Velasquez via a 4th or 5th round TKO stoppage.

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