UFC 127 Picks and Discussion

Not the best card we've seen in terms of talent, but this card could potentially surprise many with the solid match-making from Joe Silva and the UFC. The main event will give us a new #1 contender at 170, but it's not entirely clear how this will work out considering current 170 champ, GSP, is one fight away from moving up to 185. It will be interesting to see how it all plays out, but even with this being a weaker card and having a lot of lingering questions, I can't help but be excited to see how a lot of these fights play out.

Kyle Noke vs. Chris Camozzi: I haven't seen Camozzi fight at all, so I'm kind of hesitant to make a serious pick for this fight. I have seen Noke fight one two occasions, a KO loss to Scott Smith, and a submission victory over Rob Kimmons. Noke also holds a win over George Sotiropoulos and took Bellator's 185 champ, Hector Lombard, to a draw. Camozzi is coming off a win over Dongi Yang, but also has lost fights to UFC cast offs Jesse Forbes and Jesse Taylor. I'm going to take Noke by submission based of the fact that he has faced and beaten better competition, but that pick is essentially a blind guess.

Chris Lytle vs. Brian Ebersole: This was originally slated to be Chris Lytle vs Carlos Condit, which was a fight I was VERY excited to see. Condit was forced to bow out due to a knee injury and Ebersole took the fight on about 2 weeks notice. Once again, I have never seen Ebersole fight, but after checking out his record it is quite clear that he is Australia's journeyman. The man has over 40 wins in his career, but I don't think he'll be adding to those wins this coming Saturday. Chris Lytle has completely revamped his career in the past couple of years. Not only is he one of the most exciting fighters to watch, but he is clearly expanding his game. His submission victories over Brian Foster and Matt Brown have shown that while Lytle is not afraid to stand, he is equally savvy on the ground and can pull off things on the mat that I have never seen before. I'm taking Lytle via submission just due to the fact that at this point the guy is doing what he wants.

George Sotiropoulos vs. Dennis Siver: I've talked about this fight on Tom Van Stone's radio show on Wrestleview.com and as much as I love Sotiropoulos, I can't really get excited for this fight. I don't really think Siver has done enough to deserve a fight against an opponent of this magnitude. Sotiropoulos has beaten guys like Joe Stevenson, Kurt Pellegrino, and Joe Lauzon. Siver, on the other hand, has reached the peak of his wins by beating guys like Andre Winner and Spencer Fisher. I think this is simply a fight that George is expected to win in his home country to set him up for a big fight or a title show. Siver does have good striking, so he could surprise me, but I see George weathering an early storm en route to a slick submission victory.

Jorge Rivera vs. Michael Bisping: This is another fight with some strange match-making. I understand that this fight came out of Rivera calling Bisping out, but I think both fighters are in very different points in their careers as Rivera is likely reaching the end of his while Bisping is likely in his peak. Bisping is the better technical striker as his attack is much more varied and precise, but his footwork and pulling of his punches really causes him to lose a lot of power. Rivera is far less technical, but what he lacks in finesse he makes up for in power. I originally thought that this fight might be a bit of a step back for the Brit, but when I thought about it, I asked myself....who has Bisping beaten that he wasn't expected to beat soundly? All three of Bisping's losses have come when he's taken on a step-up in competition. I'm picking Bisping to win a decision here, but it's not because I think he's a top guy taking on a gatekeeper, but rather because Rivera falls right into that group of fighters than Bisping is designed to beat.

BJ Penn vs. Jon Fitch: I LOOOOOVE this fight. When I heard that BJ wanted to move back to 170 and then walked right through Matt Hughes, I was a little worried that he would get an immediate title shot. While I do think Penn would need at least one more quality win in addition to a win over Fitch to deserve a shot, I'm happy that he at least has to go through someone at the top of the welterweight dog pile. Penn is the better striker, but Fitch is not only much longer than Penn, but he will have a significant size advantage. Penn is walking around at 160-165 while Fitch has to cut to 170. We've also seen Fitch handle grapplers in the past and fighters who are much larger then him a la Thiago Alves. Fitch just has too many advantages in this fight and while I think he'll have a tough time finishing Penn I do think he'll win a one-sided decision and finally earn that title shot he's been promised for close to a year.

As always check me out on Twitter @JustinCohee, the Go To Sleep MMA Blog page on Facebook, and Wrestleview's Tom Van Stone Show.

(Image from Hooked on MMA)

Billy's Take On UFC 126

Remember last night when Forrest Griffin worked his way tooth and nail past former middleweight champion Rich Franklin after a 14 month layoff? How about when Jake Ellenberger almost got the brakes put on his run to a welterweight contendership spot by an up in coming fighter no one gave half a chance to leading up to the fight, including Ellenberger? Of course you recall sharing that sense of surprise and overcoming excitement with Light heavyweight prodigy Jon Jones when Joe Rogan announced, unannounced to 99.999% of the onlookers, including Jones, that he would replace his training partner Rashad Evans as the number 1 contender set to face Shogun in under 2 months. How could you forget? These events ranked anywhere from curiously amusing to monumental as they are still fresh in our mind's, yet what do you think will be the one thing we will all collectively pull away from UFC 126 and remember with such "where were you when..." vigor, in years to come? How about the biggest middle weight fight ever in the UFC and possibly the biggest fight in all of Brazil ending with such quick, unbalking violence from, wait for it...a theep. The equivalent of smashing the game 7 world series winning homerun off of C.C. Sabathia with a perfect bunting technique. A big part of the game but certainly the acquired results were unexpected.

The "Theep" or "Push/Front Kick" can be described as a foot-thrust weapon and is executed by bending at the knee, then quickly extending your leg to use foot or heel to attack the target. In Muay Thai "Theeps" are different from any other attacks becuase of their objective. Foot-thrust will be mainly used as offensive technique to block the opponent's attack. The foot-thrust also use for make the opponent off balance and take a chance to attack. These kicks are typically aimed at targets below the chest: abdomen, thighs, knees or lower. In Kung Fu, a front kick to the face is a sign a disrespect as would be a slap in the face. Now, Anderson Silva seemed to mean no disrespect when crushing Belfort's mug with the base of his foot but what an embarrassing way to go for the former Heavy and Lightheavyweight champion.

So what's next? My guess is some sort of foot stomp, shoulder attack, or heel kick to the kidney while in your opponent's guard KO. If we wait patiently though I could see Koji Oishi's technique of blocking his opponent's punches with his own fists lead to some devastating highlight reels very shortly. What ever it is, we will always remember UFC 126 not for the first 5 hours but the last 5 minutes.

Post Fight Thoughts: UFC 126

A lot went down at UFC 126 and it's really going to be interesting to see where the UFC goes from here. Here are my thoughts on what went down and where I see some of the fighters going.

Kyle Kingsbury quickly finished Ricardo Romero in devastating fashion in a performance that is certainly the most impressive of his UFC career. Kingsbury is one of those guys who is in great shape and a great athlete, but I'm not sure how far he's going to be able to take his MMA career. Some MMA journalists are calling for a step up in competition for Kingsbury, but I'm not 100% sure he's ready for it. The biggest step up I'd give him without getting too aggressive would be someone like Krzysztof Soszynski.

Gabe Ruediger has no business being in the UFC. His stand-up is awful and his stand-up defense is even worse. Paul Taylor beat him silly and finished it off with a beautiful headkick that will certainly be accompanied by Ruediger's walking papers.

Kid Yamamoto's UFC debut went pretty much like I expected. Demetrious Johnson's speed is seriously one of the craziest things I've ever seen as he was able to avoid Kid's power shots and transition into takedowns seamlessly. Johnson is one of those guys who would seriously benefit from the addition of a 125 pound weight class, but I expect that he'll continue to have success in the UFC. If Joe Benavidez gets past Ian Loveland in his next fight I'd love to see him and Johnson fight. As for Kid, I think you keep him around for at least one more fight and give him a gimme fight to let American fans see what all the hype was about.

Chad Mendes taking a decision over Michihiro Omigawa wasn't really that much of a surprise to me. Mendes is likely very close to a title shot while Omigawa is likely in the same position as Kid...he needs a gimme fight to justify why American MMA fans should give a shit about him.

Donald Cerrone's win over Paul Kelly looked a lot like his other wins in that he took some early punishment but survived it and turned it into a nice win. Kelly pulled a pretty BS move by trying to punch Cerrone during the opening fight glove tap, but ended up getting choked out in the end. It's pretty obvious Cerrone needs to be brought up nice and easy as he didn't look great in this fight, so a fight with Terry Etim or Joe Lauzon makes sense. Cerrone could be a potential draw, but he can't be thrown into the deep waters too early.

Miguel Torres got the win in his UFC debut but he certainly didn't look great doing it. A fight with Demetrious Johnson or the winner of Page/Bowles makes the most sense, but Torres needs to be impressive in his next appearance if he hopes to earn back the hype he had back when he was the WEC champ at 135.

Ellenberger learned that to be successful in the UFC he's going to have to learn that his wrestling will only get him so far and that strong submission specialists are going to be able to put him in danger even though he's on top. A fight with Mike Pierce could be a way to go, but a fight with fellow wrestler Charlie Brenneman makes a lot more sense to me.

Jon Jones got surprised with a title shot thanks to a Rashad Evans injury, and I can't help but be even more excited. I'll be at UFC 128 so the thought of getting to see Jones and Shogun facing off in the cage is already giving me goosebumps. Jones once again walked through an opponent that was supposed to be his stiffest test yet. Bader looked lost when he got put on his back, and Jones's striking is obviously well above and beyond most fighters in the division. I don't think this will hurt Bader too much as Jones has a reputation for embarrassing people, so a fight with fellow loss-sufferer Rich Franklin makes sense. As for Jones we know he'll be getting the next shot against Shogun, and I can't help but love his chances.

Forrest Griffin defeated Rich Franklin in a fairly uneventful one-sided decision. Griffin's size and strength made the difference in the fight and on top of that it looked like Franklin's age is starting to catch up with him. Franklin was obviously down on the scorecards yet he fought with zero urgency. I suggested Franklin be matched up with Bader next and I'd like to see Griffin face off against Lyoto Machida should he get by Randy Couture or Little Nog if he gets past Tito Ortiz.

Anderson Silva KO'd Vitor Belfort with a friggin front kick...Wow. Apparently if GSP gets past Jake Shields then Silva/GSP will finally come true. That's pretty unfortunate for Yushin Okami, who once again is being forced wait for his title shot. At this point I just think Jon Fitch should move up to 185 and he and Okami can fight each other for the rest of their careers. I look for the Silva/GSP fight to come to fruition as I don't think Shields is the guy to dethrone GSP. Belfort is an interesting case as he's a draw, but his career has pretty much peaked as it's apparent he's not able to to hang with the new age top of the food chain fighters. At this point in his career I think you just put Belfort in fights that are more about flash and excitement rather then trying to get him to the top of the division. I could also see Belfort moving back to 205 as his last cut to make 185 was around 30pounds. If he stays at 185 then fights with Leben, Wanderlei Silva, Akiyama, and Marquardt all options. If he goes to 205 then fights with Forrest Griffin, Randy Couture, Machida, or Thiago Silva would all be fun as well.

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(Image from HeavyMMA)

UFC 126 Predictions

Bout that time for the newest edition of the GTS fight predictions. UFC 126 is one of the most stacked cards I've seen in awhile and I am thoroughly excited to watch the action this Saturday. On to my picks...

Demetrious Johnson vs. Kid Yamamoto: I'm very excited to see Kid make his UFC debut, and I'm very happy the UFC decided to air it on Facebook. That being said, I'm not sure I see Kid getting the win here. Johnson, despite his smaller stature, has looked very good as of late, especially in submission victory over Damacio Page. Kid hasn't fought since May in a victory over 4-3 Frederico Lopez, which was his first win since 2007. I just think Kid's best days are behind him and we'll see that as Johnson grinds out an impressive, one-sided decision.

Chad Mendes vs. Michihiro Omigawa: It's funny to think that back in 2008 I watched Omigawa lose a fairly boring decision to Thiago Tavares and his job in the UFC. Fast forward to 2011 and Omigawa has dropped to 145, won 8 of his last 11 fights, and has a 5 fight win streak going. Mendes is a member of Team Alpha Male and has used his smothering wrestling to maintain an undefeated recorded and earn 4 victories in the WEC. Omigawa has certainly turned his career around since his first run in the UFC, but Mendes is quickly becoming the Sherk or Fitch of his weight class. His methods and wins aren't exciting, but they're effective and I think those methods will be able to smother Omigawa en route to a decision victory.

Paul Kelly vs. Donald Cerrone: Cerrone is taking this fight on short notice and is getting a nice little test right out of the gate with Paul Kelly. Cerrone is the much longer fighter and will likely have the advantage in the stand up department. Kelly has pretty good takedowns and grond and pound, but Cerrone has really worked on his takedown defense, is good with submission off his back, and has added takedowns to his own arsenal. Basically, Cerrone is just a little better than Kelly in just about every department and it will earn him a late TKO or submission victory.

Antonio Banuelos vs. Miguel Torres: Let's be honest from the get go, this fight was set up to be Torres's UFC coming out party. Banuelos is a game opponent as he's pretty happy to stand and trade with an opponent, which is exactly why he was matched up with Torres. Torres will use his reach advantage and pinpoint striking to pick Banuelos apart and take a TKO victory or a commanding decision win.

Ryan Bader vs. Jon Jones: Aside from the main event, this is the fight that I am most excited for. Both guys are up and comers in the weight class and are looking to break into the top ten and start making noise for title shots. Bader is coming off the biggest win of his career over Little Nog at 119 and Jones most recently ran through the Janitor at UFC on VS 2. The only loss between the two is Jones's DQ loss to Matt Hammill in a fight that Jones was absolutely dominating before making the mistake with the downward elbows. Jones is freakishly long and is the better striker, so I'll think he'll pick Bader apart if the fight stays standing. Bader is very strong physically and is likely the better traditional wrestler, so it'll be interesting to see if he can put Jones on his back and keep him there. Jones's takedowns are far more creative and unorthodox, so I'm curious to see if Jones will take Bader down and see if Bader can do anything off of his back. When it comes down to making a decision, though, I can't help but go with Jones. I think his striking is worlds better than Bader's and I don't think Bader's wrestling is going to be a major difference maker. Jones is a fantastic wrestler himself, and is also good with submissions, and on top of that I think his cardio is going to be significantly better. In Bader's fights that we've seen him go three rounds, it was apparent that the longer the fight goes, the more tired he gets and the lower his hands drop. Jones may have to weather an early storm, but as the fight goes on Bader will start to wilt and Jones will finish him on the feet.

Jake Ellenberger vs. Carlos Eduardo Rocha: I can't say too much here as I've only seen Rocha fight once and it was a quick submission victory. Ellenberger has impressed the hell out of me as of late and I think his wrestling and ground and pound will earn him a definitive TKO victory.

Rich Franklin vs. Forrest Griffin: I have no idea who to pick in this fight. Griffin hasn't fought since UFC 106 in a split decision victory over Tito Ortiz and before that he was smashed by Rashad Evans and Anderson Silva. Franklin most recently KO'd Chuck Liddell at UFC 115, but it wasn't his most impressive showing as he was rocked and dropped several times. Franklin's key to victory is to keep his distance and pick apart Griffin with his cleaner striking. Griffin's key to victory is to use his size, press Franklin up against the cage in the clinch and eventually put Franklin on his back. This fight is a coin flip for me, but I'm going to guess that ring rust will be a factor and Franklin will be able to peck away at Griffin and earn a decision victory.

Anderson Silva vs. Vitor Belfort: I have to admit that this fight didn't have me too excited until I watched the weigh-ins. Belfort hasn't fought since UFC 103 when he KO'd Rich Franklin, so he's going to have some ring rust, and on top of that I read that he had to cut 30lbs for this fight, so I was thinking that this fight could end up being very one-sided in Silva's favor. After I watched the weigh-ins, though, and they both got in each others faces and start shit-talking I got goosebumps. These guys genuinely do not like each other and I think it's going to show in this fight. Silva looked awful in his last fight against Sonnen up until the miracle submission, but hopefully he's recovered from any injuries and is in top shape, otherwise Belfort could have a serious chance. Both men are feared strikers, but Silva is a little more varied and volume-based while Belfort is all about power. I'm going with Silva to win by TKO as I think he'll be able to pick his spots when Belfort goes from the home run swing, but if Belfort can put the pressure on Silva early, he very well could walk away with a devastating KO win.

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