UFC 126 Predictions

Bout that time for the newest edition of the GTS fight predictions. UFC 126 is one of the most stacked cards I've seen in awhile and I am thoroughly excited to watch the action this Saturday. On to my picks...

Demetrious Johnson vs. Kid Yamamoto: I'm very excited to see Kid make his UFC debut, and I'm very happy the UFC decided to air it on Facebook. That being said, I'm not sure I see Kid getting the win here. Johnson, despite his smaller stature, has looked very good as of late, especially in submission victory over Damacio Page. Kid hasn't fought since May in a victory over 4-3 Frederico Lopez, which was his first win since 2007. I just think Kid's best days are behind him and we'll see that as Johnson grinds out an impressive, one-sided decision.

Chad Mendes vs. Michihiro Omigawa: It's funny to think that back in 2008 I watched Omigawa lose a fairly boring decision to Thiago Tavares and his job in the UFC. Fast forward to 2011 and Omigawa has dropped to 145, won 8 of his last 11 fights, and has a 5 fight win streak going. Mendes is a member of Team Alpha Male and has used his smothering wrestling to maintain an undefeated recorded and earn 4 victories in the WEC. Omigawa has certainly turned his career around since his first run in the UFC, but Mendes is quickly becoming the Sherk or Fitch of his weight class. His methods and wins aren't exciting, but they're effective and I think those methods will be able to smother Omigawa en route to a decision victory.

Paul Kelly vs. Donald Cerrone: Cerrone is taking this fight on short notice and is getting a nice little test right out of the gate with Paul Kelly. Cerrone is the much longer fighter and will likely have the advantage in the stand up department. Kelly has pretty good takedowns and grond and pound, but Cerrone has really worked on his takedown defense, is good with submission off his back, and has added takedowns to his own arsenal. Basically, Cerrone is just a little better than Kelly in just about every department and it will earn him a late TKO or submission victory.

Antonio Banuelos vs. Miguel Torres: Let's be honest from the get go, this fight was set up to be Torres's UFC coming out party. Banuelos is a game opponent as he's pretty happy to stand and trade with an opponent, which is exactly why he was matched up with Torres. Torres will use his reach advantage and pinpoint striking to pick Banuelos apart and take a TKO victory or a commanding decision win.

Ryan Bader vs. Jon Jones: Aside from the main event, this is the fight that I am most excited for. Both guys are up and comers in the weight class and are looking to break into the top ten and start making noise for title shots. Bader is coming off the biggest win of his career over Little Nog at 119 and Jones most recently ran through the Janitor at UFC on VS 2. The only loss between the two is Jones's DQ loss to Matt Hammill in a fight that Jones was absolutely dominating before making the mistake with the downward elbows. Jones is freakishly long and is the better striker, so I'll think he'll pick Bader apart if the fight stays standing. Bader is very strong physically and is likely the better traditional wrestler, so it'll be interesting to see if he can put Jones on his back and keep him there. Jones's takedowns are far more creative and unorthodox, so I'm curious to see if Jones will take Bader down and see if Bader can do anything off of his back. When it comes down to making a decision, though, I can't help but go with Jones. I think his striking is worlds better than Bader's and I don't think Bader's wrestling is going to be a major difference maker. Jones is a fantastic wrestler himself, and is also good with submissions, and on top of that I think his cardio is going to be significantly better. In Bader's fights that we've seen him go three rounds, it was apparent that the longer the fight goes, the more tired he gets and the lower his hands drop. Jones may have to weather an early storm, but as the fight goes on Bader will start to wilt and Jones will finish him on the feet.

Jake Ellenberger vs. Carlos Eduardo Rocha: I can't say too much here as I've only seen Rocha fight once and it was a quick submission victory. Ellenberger has impressed the hell out of me as of late and I think his wrestling and ground and pound will earn him a definitive TKO victory.

Rich Franklin vs. Forrest Griffin: I have no idea who to pick in this fight. Griffin hasn't fought since UFC 106 in a split decision victory over Tito Ortiz and before that he was smashed by Rashad Evans and Anderson Silva. Franklin most recently KO'd Chuck Liddell at UFC 115, but it wasn't his most impressive showing as he was rocked and dropped several times. Franklin's key to victory is to keep his distance and pick apart Griffin with his cleaner striking. Griffin's key to victory is to use his size, press Franklin up against the cage in the clinch and eventually put Franklin on his back. This fight is a coin flip for me, but I'm going to guess that ring rust will be a factor and Franklin will be able to peck away at Griffin and earn a decision victory.

Anderson Silva vs. Vitor Belfort: I have to admit that this fight didn't have me too excited until I watched the weigh-ins. Belfort hasn't fought since UFC 103 when he KO'd Rich Franklin, so he's going to have some ring rust, and on top of that I read that he had to cut 30lbs for this fight, so I was thinking that this fight could end up being very one-sided in Silva's favor. After I watched the weigh-ins, though, and they both got in each others faces and start shit-talking I got goosebumps. These guys genuinely do not like each other and I think it's going to show in this fight. Silva looked awful in his last fight against Sonnen up until the miracle submission, but hopefully he's recovered from any injuries and is in top shape, otherwise Belfort could have a serious chance. Both men are feared strikers, but Silva is a little more varied and volume-based while Belfort is all about power. I'm going with Silva to win by TKO as I think he'll be able to pick his spots when Belfort goes from the home run swing, but if Belfort can put the pressure on Silva early, he very well could walk away with a devastating KO win.

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