Not the best card we've seen in terms of talent, but this card could potentially surprise many with the solid match-making from Joe Silva and the UFC. The main event will give us a new #1 contender at 170, but it's not entirely clear how this will work out considering current 170 champ, GSP, is one fight away from moving up to 185. It will be interesting to see how it all plays out, but even with this being a weaker card and having a lot of lingering questions, I can't help but be excited to see how a lot of these fights play out.
Kyle Noke vs. Chris Camozzi: I haven't seen Camozzi fight at all, so I'm kind of hesitant to make a serious pick for this fight. I have seen Noke fight one two occasions, a KO loss to Scott Smith, and a submission victory over Rob Kimmons. Noke also holds a win over George Sotiropoulos and took Bellator's 185 champ, Hector Lombard, to a draw. Camozzi is coming off a win over Dongi Yang, but also has lost fights to UFC cast offs Jesse Forbes and Jesse Taylor. I'm going to take Noke by submission based of the fact that he has faced and beaten better competition, but that pick is essentially a blind guess.
Chris Lytle vs. Brian Ebersole: This was originally slated to be Chris Lytle vs Carlos Condit, which was a fight I was VERY excited to see. Condit was forced to bow out due to a knee injury and Ebersole took the fight on about 2 weeks notice. Once again, I have never seen Ebersole fight, but after checking out his record it is quite clear that he is Australia's journeyman. The man has over 40 wins in his career, but I don't think he'll be adding to those wins this coming Saturday. Chris Lytle has completely revamped his career in the past couple of years. Not only is he one of the most exciting fighters to watch, but he is clearly expanding his game. His submission victories over Brian Foster and Matt Brown have shown that while Lytle is not afraid to stand, he is equally savvy on the ground and can pull off things on the mat that I have never seen before. I'm taking Lytle via submission just due to the fact that at this point the guy is doing what he wants.
George Sotiropoulos vs. Dennis Siver: I've talked about this fight on Tom Van Stone's radio show on Wrestleview.com and as much as I love Sotiropoulos, I can't really get excited for this fight. I don't really think Siver has done enough to deserve a fight against an opponent of this magnitude. Sotiropoulos has beaten guys like Joe Stevenson, Kurt Pellegrino, and Joe Lauzon. Siver, on the other hand, has reached the peak of his wins by beating guys like Andre Winner and Spencer Fisher. I think this is simply a fight that George is expected to win in his home country to set him up for a big fight or a title show. Siver does have good striking, so he could surprise me, but I see George weathering an early storm en route to a slick submission victory.
Jorge Rivera vs. Michael Bisping: This is another fight with some strange match-making. I understand that this fight came out of Rivera calling Bisping out, but I think both fighters are in very different points in their careers as Rivera is likely reaching the end of his while Bisping is likely in his peak. Bisping is the better technical striker as his attack is much more varied and precise, but his footwork and pulling of his punches really causes him to lose a lot of power. Rivera is far less technical, but what he lacks in finesse he makes up for in power. I originally thought that this fight might be a bit of a step back for the Brit, but when I thought about it, I asked myself....who has Bisping beaten that he wasn't expected to beat soundly? All three of Bisping's losses have come when he's taken on a step-up in competition. I'm picking Bisping to win a decision here, but it's not because I think he's a top guy taking on a gatekeeper, but rather because Rivera falls right into that group of fighters than Bisping is designed to beat.
BJ Penn vs. Jon Fitch: I LOOOOOVE this fight. When I heard that BJ wanted to move back to 170 and then walked right through Matt Hughes, I was a little worried that he would get an immediate title shot. While I do think Penn would need at least one more quality win in addition to a win over Fitch to deserve a shot, I'm happy that he at least has to go through someone at the top of the welterweight dog pile. Penn is the better striker, but Fitch is not only much longer than Penn, but he will have a significant size advantage. Penn is walking around at 160-165 while Fitch has to cut to 170. We've also seen Fitch handle grapplers in the past and fighters who are much larger then him a la Thiago Alves. Fitch just has too many advantages in this fight and while I think he'll have a tough time finishing Penn I do think he'll win a one-sided decision and finally earn that title shot he's been promised for close to a year.
As always check me out on Twitter @JustinCohee, the Go To Sleep MMA Blog page on Facebook, and Wrestleview's Tom Van Stone Show.
(Image from Hooked on MMA)
I think a draw is the best outcome because if either of them won, Fitch would not have gotten a title shot anyway and Penn should have not.
ReplyDelete