Last night's fights kept me thoroughly entertained despite some MMA sites claiming that this card was boring compared to UFC 116 and 117. While we didn't see anything that could be called a back and forth classic, what we did see was ever single facet of MMA put on display in its highest form.
Nik Lentz vs. Andre Winner: Probably my least favorite fight of the night. Despite the fact that British fighters are usually lacking in the wrestling department, I was impressed with Winner's ability to defend the takedown (even when both of his feet were off the ground at one point) and get up quickly when the takedown was successful. Lentz got lit up a couple times on the feet, but he used his wrestling background to stuff Winner against the cage and control the fight. Winner really missed some opportunities to create some space that would have allowed him to get his composure back and utilize his significant advantage on the feet. Lentz did what he needed to do to win the fight, but if he is going to take a step up in competition he needs to work on his striking as well as figuring out what to do once the fight hits the mat.
Joe Lauzon vs. Gabe Ruediger: Holy shit that was an absolute beating. There was not one second of that fight that Gabe looked like he had a chance. The slams were awesome, Joe's transitions into the armbar were picture perfect, and the shots Joe was landing on the ground were absolutely brutal. Gabe may be one and done, or he could get another shot against a newcomer. As for Joe I think a fight with Clay Guida or Gomi would be fun to watch.
Dan Miller vs. John Salter: It was really great to finally see Dan Miller get a good win after all of the personal issues he has to deal with. Miller was coming off three straight losses, but they were to 3 of the best 185ers the UFC has to offer (Sonnen, Maia, Bisping). I saw Salter fight back in January when he was stopped by Gerald Harris. Some people are pretty high on him, but I'm not seeing anything special. I think he's a good wrestler, but that's about it. Miller's stand up definitely looked better, but once again it is his submission skills that get him the win. Miller looked content to stay standing his last few fights, but with his wrestling and BJJ credentials, it just makes more sense for him to try and get things to the mat. I'd like to see Miller take on Mark Munoz or maybe Aaron Simpson for his next fight.
Marcus Davis vs. Nate Diaz: I picked Diaz to win, but I was really pulling for Davis in this fight. I got super excited when he clipped and dropped Diaz in the first, but after that it was pretty much just Diaz putting on a show. I was talking to a friend about the Diaz brothers and their striking and we both agreed that they've really found a way to throw as many strikes as possible but still throwing power shots as well. I don't know if Davis was frustrated or what, but he looked like he aged a lot in that fight. Usually Davis is light on his feet and is able to get in and out of the pocket without taking a lot of damage, but in this fight he was flat-footed and slow. Once the fight hit the mat in the third it was all Diaz with great transitions and a fight ending guillotine that put Davis to sleep. Yves Lavigne should really be catching some crap right now for not stopping the fight sooner. Davis was out for a good 8-10 seconds before Lavigne finally stopped the bout. I'd rather see a semi-early stoppage than someone end up with a permanent injury. Not sure what's next for Davis, but a fight with Matt Brown or DeMarques Johnson is a direction I'd go in. As for Nate, his next fight depends on what weight he wants to go with. Maynard obviously isn't happening, and I think Diaz should stick with 170 for a little bit longer. I'd love to see him take on Diego Sanchez at either weight.
Kenny Florian vs. Gray Maynard: During the entire time I've been doing my fantasy UFC picks I don't think I've ever picked Gray Maynard to win. I don't know what it is about him, but I just could not get sold on him despite that fact that he's beaten some really tough guys, including the current world champ. I really thought Florian would light Gray up on the feet, but he did pretty much nothing except wait for the takedown. Even though he knew it was coming and trained with GSP for the fight, Kenny couldn't stop Maynard and offered absolutely nothing off of his back. Kenny has looked like a complete fighter on so many occasions, but last night he seriously looked helpless. Maynard didn't do much once he got Kenny down, but it was enough to take a commanding decision. PS, is it just me or is anybody else sick of hearing about Gray's power and striking? I've yet to see it against anyone that matters. Gray is a wrestler, an excellent wrestler, so it's ok to not talk about his striking. Maynard is like 155's Jon Fitch. He's strong, he'll take you down, and he'll completely neutralize you. Maynard is getting the next title shot, but I'm thinking Edgar will be able to make this fight much more competitive than their first meeting. As for Florian, I think a fight with Nate Diaz would make sense if Nate really wants to move back down.
Demain Maia vs. Mario Miranda: I didn't know a lot about Miranda prior to this fight, so when I saw Anderson Silva in his corner and heard that he also had a black belt I started to think that Maia could be in a little bit of trouble. My worries soon melted away when Maia looked better than Miranda on the feet, took him down with ease, and used his far superior BJJ to control the fight. It just goes to show how far ahead Maia is than most fighters when it comes to BJJ, even other black belts. Maia didn't get the submission like I thought he would, but he got close several time. Kudos to Miranda for defending the armbars the way he did, especially the one in the 3rd that he rolled out of beautifully. Miranda is 1-2 in the UFC so he might get one more crack at a newcomer or maybe one of the recent TUF guys. I'd like to see Maia take on the winner of Akiyama/Bisping or the winner of Belfort/Okami.
James Toney vs. Randy Couture: Man Toney really had no chance at all. Couture got the easy takedown in the opening seconds of the fight and got mount with no problem at all. From there it was all Randy working his trademark ground and pound before finally sinking an arm triangle. Dana White stated after the fight that this would be the last time he'd let a boxer come into the UFC like that and I got say I'm pretty happy to hear that. You can't be good at just one thing and come into the UFC and expect to be successful. Toney just looked lost, and it would just be more of the same with any other boxers. PS Randy is not a human being. To be 47 years old and to be in the kind of shape is just beyond my comprehension. Toney is one and done, so peace out, but for Couture he can now go back to working for a title shot at 205. Fights with Jon Jones or Rich Franklin would be my top picks.
Frankie Edgar vs. BJ Penn: I picked BJ Penn to win this fight, but I was really hoping that Edgar would be able to shock the world again and get a second win against Penn. Edgar won every round with ease and really made Penn look completely lost for 25 minutes. Edgar was quick on his feet, landed far more and harder shots, and took Penn down a couple times. Frankie kept moving the entire fight while Penn looked slow and flat-footed and didn't really try to use his jab, which has been his go to on the feet for quite some time. The one time Edgar might have been in trouble was when Penn took his back in the 5th, but Frankie stayed calm and managed to roll into top control ... just beautiful mat work. Frankie's next fight is already set with Maynard, and I'm really looking forward to seeing him attempt to avenge his only career loss. I'm not really sure where BJ goes from here. He could go up to 170 and test the waters there against guys like Matt Hughes or Matt Serra, or he could stick with 155 and take on someone like Gomi or Tyson Griffin.
Sunday, August 29, 2010
Saturday, August 28, 2010
UFC 118: Fight Predictions
With my internship starting this week I haven't had too much free time and the blog was temporarily placed on the back burner. I apologize to my readers and I will definitely will work harder to keep it updated. I want to do an entry talking about the last Strikeforce card as well as the epic Santiago/Misaki rematch. For now I'll just do my predictions for UFC 118 since the card is going down tonight.
Nate Diaz vs. Marcus Davis: This will be Diaz's second fight at 170 after a dominant performance over Rory Markham back at UFC 111. Diaz quickly finished Markham by TKO and looked good despite the fact that he's been fighting at lightweight. I was curious to see if Diaz would add a little more mass since the last fight, and he definitely looks a little bigger. Diaz's striking is good as it is pretty similar to his brother's, but I don't think he's nearly as accurate nor as powerful as Nick. Davis, on the other hand, is a former professional boxer and has KO power to go with his quick hands and solid footwork. Diaz will absolutely have the advantage should the fight go to the ground thanks to his training at Cesar Gracie's camp. Davis has shown that he's capable of staying alive on the mat, but he's going to keep this one standing at all costs. Davis will also have to deal with Diaz's reach advantage and pawing jab, so Davis will want to keep his distance, come in, get his shots in, and then get out fast. I'm a big fan of Marcus Davis, but there are just too many things he's going to have to deal with in this fight. Between Diaz's jab and overall striking game that is continually improving and his slick submission skills I've got to go with Diaz by submission late in the fight.
Kenny Florian vs Gray Maynard: This fight will determine who gets the next shot at the lightweight title. Florian is coming off victories over Clay Guida and Takanori Gomi after a submission loss to BJ Penn back at UFC 101. Maynard is undefeated thus far in his career and most recently defeated Roger Huerta and Nate Diaz. Since the loss to Penn Florian has looked great. His striking is seriously some of the best in the lightweight division. The jab utilized in the Gomi fight was especially impressive and all the while Florian remains exceptional on the ground as shown by his most recent wins coming by submission. Maynard's go to is obviously his wrestling and that is what he is going to want to use here as Florian's weakness is strong wrestlers as evidenced by the Sherk fight. Maynard is also capable of negating a fighter's submission game off their back as seen with his wins over Jim Miller and Rich Clementi. Maynard also has a win over the current lightweight champ Frankie Edgar. The difference in this fight will definitely be in the stand up department. I've continually heard people talk about how good Maynard is getting on the feet and how he has all this power behind his strikes. Personally, I thought Maynard didn't look anything special on the feet against Diaz and the only time he has knocked anybody out was back in 2007 against Joe Veres. I just don't see Florian losing this fight as I think he'll use his superior striking to take a commanding decision win.
Demian Maia vs. Mario Miranda: Maia was originally set to face Alan Belcher at the next Fight Night, but Belcher had to drop out due to a detached retina and may never fight again. Maia was then scheduled to fight at UFC 118 and Mario Miranda was brought in as his opponent. Maia hasn't fought since the decision loss to Anderson Silva back at UFC 112, but prior to that Maia had only one career loss, which was a KO defeat to Nate Marquardt. Most of Maia's wins have come by submission due to the fact that he's likely the best BJJ practitioner in the UFC. Miranda debuted in the UFC against rising start Gerald Harris and lost by KO. Miranda rebounded, though, with a dominant TKO win over David Loiseau. Maia has shown that he's working on his standup as seen in the win over Dan Miller, but Miranda is likely going to have the advantage on the feet. Maia is great at dragging guys down to the ground and has shown that he has some crafty takedown ability as well. I see this going a lot like Maia's other fights have gone with him tying up with Miranda, dragging him down, and notching another submission win.
James Toney vs. Randy Couture: I love how this is being built up as MMA vs. Boxing when this a MMA fight. Toney keeps making his comments about how he's going to KO Couture, and while it is certainly possible, I don't think it is likely. Couture has been KO'd before Toney has not had much time at all to work on every skill needed to be successful in MMA, let alone in the UFC against a legend of the sport. All this talk of Toney subbing King Mo and giving Dean Lister on the ground is absolute BS. Toney is out of shape, well past his prime, and is clearly just trying to make a buck. Toney's only chance of winning this fight is clipping Randy on the feet. I see Randy pressing Toney up against the cage, dumping him on his head, and working ground and pound until the fight is called. I'd love to see Randy choke Toney to sleep, but I feel like the beating he'll give him on the ground will be more than enough.
BJ Penn vs. Frankie Edgar: The first fight between these two was definitely not the most exciting fight I've ever seen, but I still thought it was entertaining due to how close it was. I scored the fight for Edgar, but the judge who scored all five rounds for him was out of his mind. Going into this fight I'm not 100% sure Frankie Edgar has actually faced BJ Penn yet. In their first fight Penn looked tired and worn and was apparently suffering from a pretty bad sinus infection. Prior to that Penn absolutely dominated Florian and Diego Sanchez and looked like an absolute animal. Frankie shocked a lot of people with his win over Sean Sherk and has shown that he's more than just a wrestler thanks to his striking ability. Even with his continually improving striking and stellar wrestling I just don't think it will be enough to take a healthy, motivated, and angry BJ Penn. I say Penn takes this with a submission in the third or fourth round.
Nate Diaz vs. Marcus Davis: This will be Diaz's second fight at 170 after a dominant performance over Rory Markham back at UFC 111. Diaz quickly finished Markham by TKO and looked good despite the fact that he's been fighting at lightweight. I was curious to see if Diaz would add a little more mass since the last fight, and he definitely looks a little bigger. Diaz's striking is good as it is pretty similar to his brother's, but I don't think he's nearly as accurate nor as powerful as Nick. Davis, on the other hand, is a former professional boxer and has KO power to go with his quick hands and solid footwork. Diaz will absolutely have the advantage should the fight go to the ground thanks to his training at Cesar Gracie's camp. Davis has shown that he's capable of staying alive on the mat, but he's going to keep this one standing at all costs. Davis will also have to deal with Diaz's reach advantage and pawing jab, so Davis will want to keep his distance, come in, get his shots in, and then get out fast. I'm a big fan of Marcus Davis, but there are just too many things he's going to have to deal with in this fight. Between Diaz's jab and overall striking game that is continually improving and his slick submission skills I've got to go with Diaz by submission late in the fight.
Kenny Florian vs Gray Maynard: This fight will determine who gets the next shot at the lightweight title. Florian is coming off victories over Clay Guida and Takanori Gomi after a submission loss to BJ Penn back at UFC 101. Maynard is undefeated thus far in his career and most recently defeated Roger Huerta and Nate Diaz. Since the loss to Penn Florian has looked great. His striking is seriously some of the best in the lightweight division. The jab utilized in the Gomi fight was especially impressive and all the while Florian remains exceptional on the ground as shown by his most recent wins coming by submission. Maynard's go to is obviously his wrestling and that is what he is going to want to use here as Florian's weakness is strong wrestlers as evidenced by the Sherk fight. Maynard is also capable of negating a fighter's submission game off their back as seen with his wins over Jim Miller and Rich Clementi. Maynard also has a win over the current lightweight champ Frankie Edgar. The difference in this fight will definitely be in the stand up department. I've continually heard people talk about how good Maynard is getting on the feet and how he has all this power behind his strikes. Personally, I thought Maynard didn't look anything special on the feet against Diaz and the only time he has knocked anybody out was back in 2007 against Joe Veres. I just don't see Florian losing this fight as I think he'll use his superior striking to take a commanding decision win.
Demian Maia vs. Mario Miranda: Maia was originally set to face Alan Belcher at the next Fight Night, but Belcher had to drop out due to a detached retina and may never fight again. Maia was then scheduled to fight at UFC 118 and Mario Miranda was brought in as his opponent. Maia hasn't fought since the decision loss to Anderson Silva back at UFC 112, but prior to that Maia had only one career loss, which was a KO defeat to Nate Marquardt. Most of Maia's wins have come by submission due to the fact that he's likely the best BJJ practitioner in the UFC. Miranda debuted in the UFC against rising start Gerald Harris and lost by KO. Miranda rebounded, though, with a dominant TKO win over David Loiseau. Maia has shown that he's working on his standup as seen in the win over Dan Miller, but Miranda is likely going to have the advantage on the feet. Maia is great at dragging guys down to the ground and has shown that he has some crafty takedown ability as well. I see this going a lot like Maia's other fights have gone with him tying up with Miranda, dragging him down, and notching another submission win.
James Toney vs. Randy Couture: I love how this is being built up as MMA vs. Boxing when this a MMA fight. Toney keeps making his comments about how he's going to KO Couture, and while it is certainly possible, I don't think it is likely. Couture has been KO'd before Toney has not had much time at all to work on every skill needed to be successful in MMA, let alone in the UFC against a legend of the sport. All this talk of Toney subbing King Mo and giving Dean Lister on the ground is absolute BS. Toney is out of shape, well past his prime, and is clearly just trying to make a buck. Toney's only chance of winning this fight is clipping Randy on the feet. I see Randy pressing Toney up against the cage, dumping him on his head, and working ground and pound until the fight is called. I'd love to see Randy choke Toney to sleep, but I feel like the beating he'll give him on the ground will be more than enough.
BJ Penn vs. Frankie Edgar: The first fight between these two was definitely not the most exciting fight I've ever seen, but I still thought it was entertaining due to how close it was. I scored the fight for Edgar, but the judge who scored all five rounds for him was out of his mind. Going into this fight I'm not 100% sure Frankie Edgar has actually faced BJ Penn yet. In their first fight Penn looked tired and worn and was apparently suffering from a pretty bad sinus infection. Prior to that Penn absolutely dominated Florian and Diego Sanchez and looked like an absolute animal. Frankie shocked a lot of people with his win over Sean Sherk and has shown that he's more than just a wrestler thanks to his striking ability. Even with his continually improving striking and stellar wrestling I just don't think it will be enough to take a healthy, motivated, and angry BJ Penn. I say Penn takes this with a submission in the third or fourth round.
Thursday, August 19, 2010
Post Fight Thoughts: WEC 50 Edition
First off, I have to commend the WEC for putting on yet another exciting card with great match making that has continually led to close and ultra competitive fights. I started off well with my predictions, but then I hit a skid and went 2 for 5 (hey Ariel Helwani picked Roller too so I don't feel too bad about it).
Bart Palaszewski vs. Zach Micklewright: In my predictions I was a little critical of Bart's striking, but he really proved me wrong last night. He put together some really nice combinations and displayed some quick head movement that I had not seen him utilize in past fights. He also kept himself out of dangerous exchanges and backed off when Micklewright connected or when he was getting backed up against the case. Micklewright just looked like he was a step or two behind Bartimus the entire fight and was eventually finished off in the 2nd round. Micklewright looked like he was a little upset by the stoppage, but he looked out of it before a crazy flurry and then a final right hand that dropped him to the mat. Great win for Bartimus. That's 4 in row for Bart, so I'd like to see him take a step up in competition and maybe face Shane Roller or the loser of Varner/Cerrone.
Scott Jorgensen vs. Brad Pickett: In the predictions I stated that I thought Jorgensen's wrestling would be the difference in the fight, and it definitely was, I just didn't think the fight would be that close (despite what the judges thought). The first round went to Pickett in my opinion as he got the better of the exchanges for the most part and got up quickly from Jorgensen's takedown. The second and third rounds were Jorgensen's as he wobbled Pickett with a couple counters and worked takedowns, some really nice elbows from Pickett's guard, and a couple passes to side control. Jorgensen looks like he's next in like for title shot at 135 against Cruz, and while I think Cruz is the better striker, Jorgensen's wrestling and GnP could be a real difference maker. Tough loss for Pickett, but he stayed tough the entire fight and even put his mouth guard back in while he was getting punched in the face. Tough guy who gained a lot of fans with that performance last night.
Cub Swanson vs. Chad Mendes: Well now that I've seen Mendes fight and seen his fighting style I know not to write him off so quickly now. Not a whole lot to comment on here as Mendes took Swanson down with ease, held on to top control, and earned a decision win. Not the most exciting fight in the world but it was a good win for Mendes. If he can add some submissions and GnP to his skill set he'll be a real tough guy to beat. His stand up was OK, but he kind of looked like Sean Sherk with his muscular build and short arms. Swanson should seriously ask that his fights not be televised due to the fact that when they are ... he loses.
Anthony Pettis vs. Shane Roller: Wow, this was one hell of a performance from Pettis. I realize that he got submission of the night, but it's fights like these that make me wish there was performance of the night bonus to go to a single fighter. Pettis threw some wild kicks that really rocked Roller, showed some amazing takedown defense, and showed even better escapes when Roller did manages to get him to the ground. The reversal in the 2nd round where Pettis used the cage to roll out of Roller's mount was a thing of beauty and showed great awareness. Any other time it looked like Roller might work a submission Pettis would escape with ease ... just great great stuff. Roller really landed some good right hands on Pettis, but he didn't have much success with takedowns and couldn't get anything done on the mat. On top of all that he was giving up more triangle than Chael Sonnen. Great win and performance from Pettis, and I hope he gets the next shot at the 155 belt.
Dominick Cruz vs. Joe Benavidez: Once again I went with my gut instead of my head and my gut was wrong again. All in all it was a good, close fight that has really had a bunch of MMA sites turn out really different scores. I scored it 48-47 Benavidez based on the fact that I didn't think Cruz's attempts to steal rounds with last minute takedowns made up for the fact that Joe B. was putting together some really nice counter strikes that wobbled Cruz on a couple of occasions. FightMetric had Cruz winning all five rounds, but I think the fight appeared to be a lot closer, especially with Joe B. landing the harder shots. All in all it was a good fight and I was not surprised or angered that Cruz was awarded the decision. If you're going to beat a champ you better do it decisively.
On a slightly unrelated note, I would just like to say thank you to everyone who has been visiting the blog. The blog got like 30 hits last night which is around 3 times what I have been getting on a daily basis. I encourage everyone to keep coming back, follow the blog, and leave comments. Again, thank you for all the support.
Bart Palaszewski vs. Zach Micklewright: In my predictions I was a little critical of Bart's striking, but he really proved me wrong last night. He put together some really nice combinations and displayed some quick head movement that I had not seen him utilize in past fights. He also kept himself out of dangerous exchanges and backed off when Micklewright connected or when he was getting backed up against the case. Micklewright just looked like he was a step or two behind Bartimus the entire fight and was eventually finished off in the 2nd round. Micklewright looked like he was a little upset by the stoppage, but he looked out of it before a crazy flurry and then a final right hand that dropped him to the mat. Great win for Bartimus. That's 4 in row for Bart, so I'd like to see him take a step up in competition and maybe face Shane Roller or the loser of Varner/Cerrone.
Scott Jorgensen vs. Brad Pickett: In the predictions I stated that I thought Jorgensen's wrestling would be the difference in the fight, and it definitely was, I just didn't think the fight would be that close (despite what the judges thought). The first round went to Pickett in my opinion as he got the better of the exchanges for the most part and got up quickly from Jorgensen's takedown. The second and third rounds were Jorgensen's as he wobbled Pickett with a couple counters and worked takedowns, some really nice elbows from Pickett's guard, and a couple passes to side control. Jorgensen looks like he's next in like for title shot at 135 against Cruz, and while I think Cruz is the better striker, Jorgensen's wrestling and GnP could be a real difference maker. Tough loss for Pickett, but he stayed tough the entire fight and even put his mouth guard back in while he was getting punched in the face. Tough guy who gained a lot of fans with that performance last night.
Cub Swanson vs. Chad Mendes: Well now that I've seen Mendes fight and seen his fighting style I know not to write him off so quickly now. Not a whole lot to comment on here as Mendes took Swanson down with ease, held on to top control, and earned a decision win. Not the most exciting fight in the world but it was a good win for Mendes. If he can add some submissions and GnP to his skill set he'll be a real tough guy to beat. His stand up was OK, but he kind of looked like Sean Sherk with his muscular build and short arms. Swanson should seriously ask that his fights not be televised due to the fact that when they are ... he loses.
Anthony Pettis vs. Shane Roller: Wow, this was one hell of a performance from Pettis. I realize that he got submission of the night, but it's fights like these that make me wish there was performance of the night bonus to go to a single fighter. Pettis threw some wild kicks that really rocked Roller, showed some amazing takedown defense, and showed even better escapes when Roller did manages to get him to the ground. The reversal in the 2nd round where Pettis used the cage to roll out of Roller's mount was a thing of beauty and showed great awareness. Any other time it looked like Roller might work a submission Pettis would escape with ease ... just great great stuff. Roller really landed some good right hands on Pettis, but he didn't have much success with takedowns and couldn't get anything done on the mat. On top of all that he was giving up more triangle than Chael Sonnen. Great win and performance from Pettis, and I hope he gets the next shot at the 155 belt.
Dominick Cruz vs. Joe Benavidez: Once again I went with my gut instead of my head and my gut was wrong again. All in all it was a good, close fight that has really had a bunch of MMA sites turn out really different scores. I scored it 48-47 Benavidez based on the fact that I didn't think Cruz's attempts to steal rounds with last minute takedowns made up for the fact that Joe B. was putting together some really nice counter strikes that wobbled Cruz on a couple of occasions. FightMetric had Cruz winning all five rounds, but I think the fight appeared to be a lot closer, especially with Joe B. landing the harder shots. All in all it was a good fight and I was not surprised or angered that Cruz was awarded the decision. If you're going to beat a champ you better do it decisively.
On a slightly unrelated note, I would just like to say thank you to everyone who has been visiting the blog. The blog got like 30 hits last night which is around 3 times what I have been getting on a daily basis. I encourage everyone to keep coming back, follow the blog, and leave comments. Again, thank you for all the support.
Tuesday, August 17, 2010
WEC 50 Predictions
Well ladies and gentlemen we're one night away from WEC 50 in which we will see Dominick Cruz defend his bantamweight title for the first time against Team Alpha Male member Josepth Benavidez. This will be a rematch from WEC 42, but I'll talk more about the title fight in a little bit. Here's how I see the night going down.
Bart Palaszewski vs. Zack Micklewright: After consecutive losses to Ricardo Lamas and Anthony Njokuani, Palaszewski has rebounded with a trio of wins over Tyler Combs, Anthony Pettis, and Karen Darabedyan. I've always been a fan of Bartimus, so it's nice to see him bounce fights from two pretty one-sided losses. Bart has loads of experience and most of wins have come either by KO or submission. He's good on the feet and is skilled on the ground as well. On the other hand I didn't think he looked to great on the feet in the Njokuani fight and was smothered by Lamas on the mat. Micklewright has only fought for the WEC once and won a decision over Mushin Corbbrey in a fight that I haven't seen. Micklewright is undefeated, but only has 7 career fights. It's hard for me to call this since I haven't seen Micklewright fight, but I'll go with Bartimus due to his being far more experienced.
Scott Jorgensen vs. Brad Pickett: This is my early pick for fight of the night. Since joining the WEC Jorgensen has gone 6-2 with his only losses coming in a controversial decision against Antonio Banuelos and another decision against destroyer Damacio Page. Jorgensen avenged the Banuelos loss in his most recent outing, and prior to that win he destroyed Noah Thomas with elbows, dominated Takeya Mizugaki, and put Chad George to sleep with a standing guillotine that actually lifted George off the ground. Jorgensen is decent on the feet, but his bread and butter definitely has to be his wrestling and ground and pound. Pickett joined the WEC and debuted against Kyle Dietz in a fight that saw Pickett win by the rare submission known as the peruvian necktie. Since then Pickett fought for the WEC once more and earned a decision victory over Demetrious Johnson. Pickett is very dangerous on the ground, as evidenced by 9 of his 19 career victories coming by way of submission. As much as I like Pickett I foresee Jorgensen taking the fight to the mat, using his wrestling to keep Pickett on his back, and working his usual vicious ground and pound. I say Jorgensen by decision or late round TKO.
Chad Mendes vs. Cub Swanson: Another tough fight for me to call. I've yet to see Mendes fight, so I really don't know too much about him. He's undefeated, won his last fight by submission, and is also a member of Team Alpha Male. Swanson is 3-2 in his last 5 fights, but out of those 5 fights only the 2 losses were televised. One loss was a 35 second submission to Jens Pulver, and the other was an 8 second KO loss to Jose Aldo. Swanson is obviously a talented fighter given that he has a career record of 14-3 and had an 11 fight win streak prior to the Pulver loss. This is a total guess but I'm going to go with Swanson due to his experience edge and knack for submissions.
Shane Roller vs. Anthony Pettis: The first time I saw Shane Roller fight he had a strong start against Ben Henderson but was eventually knocked out by the future champ. Since then Roller has won 3 straight against Marcus Hicks, Danny Castillo, and Anthony Njokuani. Roller also submitted Takanori Gomi in a grappling match held at a UFC Fan Expo. Pettis is coming off of two straight victories after a loss to Bart Palaszewski. Pettis knocked out Danny Castillo via head kick and submitted Alex Karalexis with a triangle choke. As a member of Roufusport, Pettis is obviously a dangerous kickboxer, so Roller is going to want to get this to the ground. As we saw in the fight with Njokuani, Roller is very capable of dealing with a dangerous striker. Pettis could very well hit a home run shot on Roller, but I see Roller getting Pettis to the mat and finishing the fight by submission in the 1st or 2nd round.
Dominick Cruz vs. Joseph Benavidez: As stated earlier this is a rematch from WEC 42. Since the first fight Benavidez has rebounded from the lone loss of his career with two straight stoppage victories over Rani Yahya and former champion Miguel Torres. The win over Torres was especially impressive as Benavidez dominated every aspect of the fight, opened an enormous gash on Torres's head, and made him tap to a guillotine. Cruz also has one career loss, which came against Urijah Fsber, a teammate of Benavidez. Benavidez is a smaller guy, but his striking is good and his wrestling is really strong. Cruz will have a significant reach advantage, but Benavidez overcame a massive reach difference in the Torres fight. Here, though, Cruz will bring some crazy footwork to go along with that reach. Brian Bowles was completely lost in his first title defense against Cruz, and it cost him his belt. I liken Cruz's footwork to that of Rashad Evans. Technically it's not good, but it's varied and wild enough to throw people off of their game. This is once again another tough fight to call. Cruz is the champ for a reason and already won their first meeting, but on the other hand, Benavidez has looked great in last 2 fights and finished a former champ. My head says Cruz, but I'm going to go with my gut and pick Benavidez to win by decision.
Bart Palaszewski vs. Zack Micklewright: After consecutive losses to Ricardo Lamas and Anthony Njokuani, Palaszewski has rebounded with a trio of wins over Tyler Combs, Anthony Pettis, and Karen Darabedyan. I've always been a fan of Bartimus, so it's nice to see him bounce fights from two pretty one-sided losses. Bart has loads of experience and most of wins have come either by KO or submission. He's good on the feet and is skilled on the ground as well. On the other hand I didn't think he looked to great on the feet in the Njokuani fight and was smothered by Lamas on the mat. Micklewright has only fought for the WEC once and won a decision over Mushin Corbbrey in a fight that I haven't seen. Micklewright is undefeated, but only has 7 career fights. It's hard for me to call this since I haven't seen Micklewright fight, but I'll go with Bartimus due to his being far more experienced.
Scott Jorgensen vs. Brad Pickett: This is my early pick for fight of the night. Since joining the WEC Jorgensen has gone 6-2 with his only losses coming in a controversial decision against Antonio Banuelos and another decision against destroyer Damacio Page. Jorgensen avenged the Banuelos loss in his most recent outing, and prior to that win he destroyed Noah Thomas with elbows, dominated Takeya Mizugaki, and put Chad George to sleep with a standing guillotine that actually lifted George off the ground. Jorgensen is decent on the feet, but his bread and butter definitely has to be his wrestling and ground and pound. Pickett joined the WEC and debuted against Kyle Dietz in a fight that saw Pickett win by the rare submission known as the peruvian necktie. Since then Pickett fought for the WEC once more and earned a decision victory over Demetrious Johnson. Pickett is very dangerous on the ground, as evidenced by 9 of his 19 career victories coming by way of submission. As much as I like Pickett I foresee Jorgensen taking the fight to the mat, using his wrestling to keep Pickett on his back, and working his usual vicious ground and pound. I say Jorgensen by decision or late round TKO.
Chad Mendes vs. Cub Swanson: Another tough fight for me to call. I've yet to see Mendes fight, so I really don't know too much about him. He's undefeated, won his last fight by submission, and is also a member of Team Alpha Male. Swanson is 3-2 in his last 5 fights, but out of those 5 fights only the 2 losses were televised. One loss was a 35 second submission to Jens Pulver, and the other was an 8 second KO loss to Jose Aldo. Swanson is obviously a talented fighter given that he has a career record of 14-3 and had an 11 fight win streak prior to the Pulver loss. This is a total guess but I'm going to go with Swanson due to his experience edge and knack for submissions.
Shane Roller vs. Anthony Pettis: The first time I saw Shane Roller fight he had a strong start against Ben Henderson but was eventually knocked out by the future champ. Since then Roller has won 3 straight against Marcus Hicks, Danny Castillo, and Anthony Njokuani. Roller also submitted Takanori Gomi in a grappling match held at a UFC Fan Expo. Pettis is coming off of two straight victories after a loss to Bart Palaszewski. Pettis knocked out Danny Castillo via head kick and submitted Alex Karalexis with a triangle choke. As a member of Roufusport, Pettis is obviously a dangerous kickboxer, so Roller is going to want to get this to the ground. As we saw in the fight with Njokuani, Roller is very capable of dealing with a dangerous striker. Pettis could very well hit a home run shot on Roller, but I see Roller getting Pettis to the mat and finishing the fight by submission in the 1st or 2nd round.
Dominick Cruz vs. Joseph Benavidez: As stated earlier this is a rematch from WEC 42. Since the first fight Benavidez has rebounded from the lone loss of his career with two straight stoppage victories over Rani Yahya and former champion Miguel Torres. The win over Torres was especially impressive as Benavidez dominated every aspect of the fight, opened an enormous gash on Torres's head, and made him tap to a guillotine. Cruz also has one career loss, which came against Urijah Fsber, a teammate of Benavidez. Benavidez is a smaller guy, but his striking is good and his wrestling is really strong. Cruz will have a significant reach advantage, but Benavidez overcame a massive reach difference in the Torres fight. Here, though, Cruz will bring some crazy footwork to go along with that reach. Brian Bowles was completely lost in his first title defense against Cruz, and it cost him his belt. I liken Cruz's footwork to that of Rashad Evans. Technically it's not good, but it's varied and wild enough to throw people off of their game. This is once again another tough fight to call. Cruz is the champ for a reason and already won their first meeting, but on the other hand, Benavidez has looked great in last 2 fights and finished a former champ. My head says Cruz, but I'm going to go with my gut and pick Benavidez to win by decision.
Monday, August 16, 2010
Future of the Welterweight Division
A few weeks ago I started a little series discussing who I thought was going to become the future of their respective weight classes. I started with the lightweight division and will now move onto the welterweights. The welterweight division, especially in the UFC, is one of the most stacked divisions in terms of talent. The UFC's welterweight champ, Georges St. Pierre, is one of, if not, the best fighter in MMA. Strikeforce's welterweight champ, Nick Diaz, has been extremely successful as of late, and is certainly someone that we could see added to pound for pound lists in the near future. The division also has guys like Jon Fitch, Josh Koscheck, Thiago Alves, Martin Kampmann, and Jake Shields.
Tyron Woodley - Up until his most recent fight against Nathan Coy (a win by split-decision), American Top Team member Tyron Woodley had won his first six fights all by submission. Woodley has an amateur wrestling background from his time spent at Mizzou, but he's shown that he is well versed in submissions as well. With Strikeforce's welterweight rosters looking pretty thin, Woodley good start making some noise for a title shot, especially if Jay Hieron keeps getting looked over.
Jake Ellenberger - After Carlos Condit made the move to the UFC and lost to Martin Kampmann is his debut, I thought that the UFC was basically feeding Ellenberger to Condit and that Condit would walk right through him, boy was I wrong. Ellenberger rocked Condit on several occasions and continued to show how talented he is when the fight hit the mat. After three close rounds Condit was awarded the victory by split-decision, but even though I'm a huge Condit fan, I really thought Ellenberger won the fight. Ellenberger bounced back nicely with wins over Mike Pyle and John Howard. In both fights Ellenberger showed great takedowns and wrestling along with vicious ground and pound. The TKO win over Pyle was especially impressive as Pyle was able to show good defense off his back at first.
Rory MacDonald - When I went to UFC Fight Night 20 in Fairfax back in January, I was pretty excited to see MacDonald's fight with Mike Guymon. Both fighters were making their UFC debuts and I had heard good things about both guys. I was especially excited to see MacDonald due to his being 20 years old. After getting rocked early in fight by Guymon, MacDonald controlled the rest of the fight, took the Joker down, and finished him with an armbar. Guymon looked to be the much bigger fighter but looked like he had nothing to defend MacDonald's onslaught. MacDonald returned to face Carlos Condit at UFC 115 and eventually lost via TKO in the 3rd. The stoppage was somewhat controversial and came after MacDonald won the first two rounds. At such a young age MacDonald is only going to get better, and I think a fight with Ellenberger would be a great fight.
Rick Story - I first saw Story fight in a performance that won him bonuses for both fight of the night and submission of the night when he submitted Brian Foster with an arm triangle while still in Foster's guard. Since the win over Foster, Story has earned decision victories over Nick Osipczak and Jesse Lennox and most recently finished Dustin Hazelett via TKO. The win over Hazelett was impressive in that he completely nullified Hazelett's ground game and brutalized him against the cage with strikes that were coming from every angle. Story has the tough loss to John Hathaway on his record, but if he continues to perform like he has over his last four fights, he'll be someone to keep an eye on.
John Hathaway - After watching the vicious beatdown that Hathaway gave Tom Egan back at UFC 93, I was immediately a fan. After decision wins over Paul Taylor and Rick Story, Hathaway was given a real step up in competition at UFC 114 against Diego Sanchez. Hathaway went on to completely dominate the fight and utilized a quick jab that caught Sanchez the entire fight. While Sanchez certainly did not look like he was 100% ready to return to 170 and was in the process of changing camps, it was still an extremely impressive win for the Brit. I'd love to see Hathaway face any of the guys I've mentioned in this post.
Honorable Mention: Johny Hendriks
Tyron Woodley - Up until his most recent fight against Nathan Coy (a win by split-decision), American Top Team member Tyron Woodley had won his first six fights all by submission. Woodley has an amateur wrestling background from his time spent at Mizzou, but he's shown that he is well versed in submissions as well. With Strikeforce's welterweight rosters looking pretty thin, Woodley good start making some noise for a title shot, especially if Jay Hieron keeps getting looked over.
Jake Ellenberger - After Carlos Condit made the move to the UFC and lost to Martin Kampmann is his debut, I thought that the UFC was basically feeding Ellenberger to Condit and that Condit would walk right through him, boy was I wrong. Ellenberger rocked Condit on several occasions and continued to show how talented he is when the fight hit the mat. After three close rounds Condit was awarded the victory by split-decision, but even though I'm a huge Condit fan, I really thought Ellenberger won the fight. Ellenberger bounced back nicely with wins over Mike Pyle and John Howard. In both fights Ellenberger showed great takedowns and wrestling along with vicious ground and pound. The TKO win over Pyle was especially impressive as Pyle was able to show good defense off his back at first.
Rory MacDonald - When I went to UFC Fight Night 20 in Fairfax back in January, I was pretty excited to see MacDonald's fight with Mike Guymon. Both fighters were making their UFC debuts and I had heard good things about both guys. I was especially excited to see MacDonald due to his being 20 years old. After getting rocked early in fight by Guymon, MacDonald controlled the rest of the fight, took the Joker down, and finished him with an armbar. Guymon looked to be the much bigger fighter but looked like he had nothing to defend MacDonald's onslaught. MacDonald returned to face Carlos Condit at UFC 115 and eventually lost via TKO in the 3rd. The stoppage was somewhat controversial and came after MacDonald won the first two rounds. At such a young age MacDonald is only going to get better, and I think a fight with Ellenberger would be a great fight.
Rick Story - I first saw Story fight in a performance that won him bonuses for both fight of the night and submission of the night when he submitted Brian Foster with an arm triangle while still in Foster's guard. Since the win over Foster, Story has earned decision victories over Nick Osipczak and Jesse Lennox and most recently finished Dustin Hazelett via TKO. The win over Hazelett was impressive in that he completely nullified Hazelett's ground game and brutalized him against the cage with strikes that were coming from every angle. Story has the tough loss to John Hathaway on his record, but if he continues to perform like he has over his last four fights, he'll be someone to keep an eye on.
John Hathaway - After watching the vicious beatdown that Hathaway gave Tom Egan back at UFC 93, I was immediately a fan. After decision wins over Paul Taylor and Rick Story, Hathaway was given a real step up in competition at UFC 114 against Diego Sanchez. Hathaway went on to completely dominate the fight and utilized a quick jab that caught Sanchez the entire fight. While Sanchez certainly did not look like he was 100% ready to return to 170 and was in the process of changing camps, it was still an extremely impressive win for the Brit. I'd love to see Hathaway face any of the guys I've mentioned in this post.
Honorable Mention: Johny Hendriks
Thursday, August 12, 2010
Post-Event Thoughts: UFC 117
It's been almost a week since the event, but I figure this post is better late than never, so without further delay here are my thoughts on UFC 117.
Several MMA sites are reporting that the event did very well in terms of PPV sales and could be close to the 1 million orders mark. A lot of people are giving the credit to Chael Sonnen thanks to continual smack talking leading up to the event and I think that credit is deserved. Anderson Silva, despite being one of the best fighters in the world, has never proven to be that big of a PPV draw. Arguments were made that the sales of UFC 101 and UFC 112 changed that perception, but I disagree. UFC 101 piggy-backed off of the success of UFC 100, had Forrest Griffin as Silva's opponent, and also featured the BJ Penn/Kenny Florian title fight. Penn has proven to be a draw on his own as evidenced by the 700k-800k PPV buys seen with UFC 107 and was once again paired with Silva for UFC 112. Unless Silva is paired with a proven draw, or is given an opponent like Sonnen who will seriously hype the fight, Silva is going to remain a moderate draw. This could very well change thanks to Sonnen making Silva look human for once, so it is very possible that people will actually tune into see if Silva's next opponent can dethrone him, especially when it seems possible now.
Junior Dos Santos vs. Roy Nelson: Due to cable issues and dealing with Mediacom over two separate phone calls I missed the first two rounds of the fights. I've since gone back to watch highlights, and it is apparent that the first two rounds of the fight were an absolute beating. Major props to Nelson for hanging on like he did and staying busy despite the fact that Dos Santos was landing several clean, hard shots. Some criticism of Dos Santos has come up due to his inability to finish and his looking a little gassed in the 3rd, but I don't think those criticisms are necessarily valid. Dos Santos stayed busy in the third and despite slowing was still landing shots, throwing knees, and defending the takedown. As for not finishing Nelson, well Dos Santos has finished every other UFC opponent he's faced, so I don't think a lack of a finish should be call for concern, especially when you consider how tough of a guy Nelson is. Dos Santos gets the winner of Velasquez/Lesnar and I couldn't be more excited for either one of those fights. Nelson faces a little bit of a set back, but it shouldn't hurt him too much. I'd like to see Nelson get the loser of Mir/Nog or maybe Cro Cop.
Matt Hughes vs. Ricardo Almeida: Wow what a finish. After the losses to GSP and Thiago Alves and the lackluster wins over Matt Serra and Renzo Gracie I really thought that Hughes's best days were behind him. While Hughes may not be holding UFC gold again anytime soon he certainly proved that he is still a threat to anyone at 170. After catching Almeida with a beautiful hook Hughes put him to sleep with one of the craziest submissions I've ever seen. Apparently it's a classic hold used in wrestling, but if I had to describe it I'd call it a blend between a simple front headlock with some anaconda choke/arm triangle thrown in. Hughes is going to take some time off, so we'll have to see how the division shakes out before he makes his return, but I still would love to see him face any of the guys from AKA. As for Almeida, I really expected him to win, but he got caught and put out with ease. I guess it's back to the drawing board for Ricardo, so you could have him face a UFC newcomer or be a step up for guys like Johny Hendriks or Jake Ellenberger.
Clay Guida vs. Rafael Dos Anjos: After the first round it looked like Rafael was going to have a significant advantage on the feet, but when I heard the translation of what his corner was saying, I got scared to think that he had a broken jaw, especially when they talked about him not being able to bite down. From there Dos Anjos looked tentative and was unable to defend Guida's takedowns. Guida is just an animal and it's fun to watch him go and never seem tired, just unbelievable stuff to see. Not sure how long Dos Anjos is going to be out, but when he comes back, fights with Thiago Tavares or Paul Kelly could make sense. As for Guida, I'd like to see him take on Gomi.
Jon Fitch vs. Thiago Alves: Man this really turned out to be disappointment of the night for me. Fitch is seriously the best at what he does, and I certainly thought it was a fight he could win, but I seriously thought that Alves would be able to put something together and make that fight competitive. I don't know if it was the long layoff, the issues with cutting weight, or a combination of the two, but Alves just did not look like he was in that fight. In fact, he looked complacent at times and was just going through the motions. Dana White originally stated that the winner of the fight would get the next crack at the welterweight title, but he seemed to back off after the fight. I wouldn't be upset if Fitch got the shot now, but I think I'd rather see him face the winner of Shields/Kampmann to determine a true number one contender. Then again, if you give Fitch the show now, you can let the Shields/Kampmann winner have the following shot. It would potentially put guys on the shelf for awhile, but it also allows for more potential title contenders. As for Alves, apparently Dana wants him to go to middleweight, but Alves wants to stick at 170 and has even hired Mike Dolce to oversee his diet to make the cut easier in the future. Assuming he stays at 170 I'd like to see Alves take on Paulo Thiago or Diego Sanchez (since that was a fight Sanchez had to miss due to injury and one that I was super excited for).
Anderson Silva vs. Chael Sonnen: I've never been so shocked while watching a fight in my entire life. I expected Sonnen to have about as much success on the ground with Silva as Dan Henderson did, but man, I was WAY off. Sonnen completely dominated that fight for 4.5 rounds before tapping to a triangle in the 5th. Sonnen took Silva down with ease, and even rocked him on the feet on more than one occasion. Sonnen is always susceptible to triangles, though, and there were countless occasions that Silva could have taken it before finally going for it in the fifth. Silva looked like he was working an armbar a bunch of times, but the triangle was just there every time he got control of Sonnen's wrists. The tap was sketchy at first, but after the replay it was pretty obvious that Sonnen tapped. It looks like Silva is going to be out for awhile, but I hope he ends up coming back sooner rather than later. Belfort is waiting for his shot, and I wouldn't be upset if Sonnen got an immediate rematch either. Okami is making noise in the division as well, so there are several options that the UFC could go in determining the next contender.
Several MMA sites are reporting that the event did very well in terms of PPV sales and could be close to the 1 million orders mark. A lot of people are giving the credit to Chael Sonnen thanks to continual smack talking leading up to the event and I think that credit is deserved. Anderson Silva, despite being one of the best fighters in the world, has never proven to be that big of a PPV draw. Arguments were made that the sales of UFC 101 and UFC 112 changed that perception, but I disagree. UFC 101 piggy-backed off of the success of UFC 100, had Forrest Griffin as Silva's opponent, and also featured the BJ Penn/Kenny Florian title fight. Penn has proven to be a draw on his own as evidenced by the 700k-800k PPV buys seen with UFC 107 and was once again paired with Silva for UFC 112. Unless Silva is paired with a proven draw, or is given an opponent like Sonnen who will seriously hype the fight, Silva is going to remain a moderate draw. This could very well change thanks to Sonnen making Silva look human for once, so it is very possible that people will actually tune into see if Silva's next opponent can dethrone him, especially when it seems possible now.
Junior Dos Santos vs. Roy Nelson: Due to cable issues and dealing with Mediacom over two separate phone calls I missed the first two rounds of the fights. I've since gone back to watch highlights, and it is apparent that the first two rounds of the fight were an absolute beating. Major props to Nelson for hanging on like he did and staying busy despite the fact that Dos Santos was landing several clean, hard shots. Some criticism of Dos Santos has come up due to his inability to finish and his looking a little gassed in the 3rd, but I don't think those criticisms are necessarily valid. Dos Santos stayed busy in the third and despite slowing was still landing shots, throwing knees, and defending the takedown. As for not finishing Nelson, well Dos Santos has finished every other UFC opponent he's faced, so I don't think a lack of a finish should be call for concern, especially when you consider how tough of a guy Nelson is. Dos Santos gets the winner of Velasquez/Lesnar and I couldn't be more excited for either one of those fights. Nelson faces a little bit of a set back, but it shouldn't hurt him too much. I'd like to see Nelson get the loser of Mir/Nog or maybe Cro Cop.
Matt Hughes vs. Ricardo Almeida: Wow what a finish. After the losses to GSP and Thiago Alves and the lackluster wins over Matt Serra and Renzo Gracie I really thought that Hughes's best days were behind him. While Hughes may not be holding UFC gold again anytime soon he certainly proved that he is still a threat to anyone at 170. After catching Almeida with a beautiful hook Hughes put him to sleep with one of the craziest submissions I've ever seen. Apparently it's a classic hold used in wrestling, but if I had to describe it I'd call it a blend between a simple front headlock with some anaconda choke/arm triangle thrown in. Hughes is going to take some time off, so we'll have to see how the division shakes out before he makes his return, but I still would love to see him face any of the guys from AKA. As for Almeida, I really expected him to win, but he got caught and put out with ease. I guess it's back to the drawing board for Ricardo, so you could have him face a UFC newcomer or be a step up for guys like Johny Hendriks or Jake Ellenberger.
Clay Guida vs. Rafael Dos Anjos: After the first round it looked like Rafael was going to have a significant advantage on the feet, but when I heard the translation of what his corner was saying, I got scared to think that he had a broken jaw, especially when they talked about him not being able to bite down. From there Dos Anjos looked tentative and was unable to defend Guida's takedowns. Guida is just an animal and it's fun to watch him go and never seem tired, just unbelievable stuff to see. Not sure how long Dos Anjos is going to be out, but when he comes back, fights with Thiago Tavares or Paul Kelly could make sense. As for Guida, I'd like to see him take on Gomi.
Jon Fitch vs. Thiago Alves: Man this really turned out to be disappointment of the night for me. Fitch is seriously the best at what he does, and I certainly thought it was a fight he could win, but I seriously thought that Alves would be able to put something together and make that fight competitive. I don't know if it was the long layoff, the issues with cutting weight, or a combination of the two, but Alves just did not look like he was in that fight. In fact, he looked complacent at times and was just going through the motions. Dana White originally stated that the winner of the fight would get the next crack at the welterweight title, but he seemed to back off after the fight. I wouldn't be upset if Fitch got the shot now, but I think I'd rather see him face the winner of Shields/Kampmann to determine a true number one contender. Then again, if you give Fitch the show now, you can let the Shields/Kampmann winner have the following shot. It would potentially put guys on the shelf for awhile, but it also allows for more potential title contenders. As for Alves, apparently Dana wants him to go to middleweight, but Alves wants to stick at 170 and has even hired Mike Dolce to oversee his diet to make the cut easier in the future. Assuming he stays at 170 I'd like to see Alves take on Paulo Thiago or Diego Sanchez (since that was a fight Sanchez had to miss due to injury and one that I was super excited for).
Anderson Silva vs. Chael Sonnen: I've never been so shocked while watching a fight in my entire life. I expected Sonnen to have about as much success on the ground with Silva as Dan Henderson did, but man, I was WAY off. Sonnen completely dominated that fight for 4.5 rounds before tapping to a triangle in the 5th. Sonnen took Silva down with ease, and even rocked him on the feet on more than one occasion. Sonnen is always susceptible to triangles, though, and there were countless occasions that Silva could have taken it before finally going for it in the fifth. Silva looked like he was working an armbar a bunch of times, but the triangle was just there every time he got control of Sonnen's wrists. The tap was sketchy at first, but after the replay it was pretty obvious that Sonnen tapped. It looks like Silva is going to be out for awhile, but I hope he ends up coming back sooner rather than later. Belfort is waiting for his shot, and I wouldn't be upset if Sonnen got an immediate rematch either. Okami is making noise in the division as well, so there are several options that the UFC could go in determining the next contender.
Friday, August 6, 2010
UFC 117 Predictions
Well we are just one day away from UFC 117 and will finally get to see the Middleweight Title fight between champion Anderson Silva and challenger Chael Sonnen. There are a lot of great fights on the card, so lets get to it with my predictions.
Junior Dos Santos vs. Roy Nelson: This is probably the fight that I am most excited to see. I've been a big Dos Santos fan ever since he blew away Werdum with a huge uppercut in his UFC debut, and since that win he has remained unbeaten in the UFC with finishes over Stefan Struve, Mirko Cro Cop, Gabriel Gonzaga, and Gilbert Yvel. Nelson won the Ultimate Fighter Season 10 by knocking out fellow cast mate Brendan Schaub and then went on to finish Struve back in March. Nelson is certainly known for his ground game and holds a black belt in BJJ, but as we saw in his last two fights, he has good striking with solid power. That being said, though, I think Dos Santos will have a significant edge on the feet thanks to his reach and his training with Brazilian Olympic boxers. Dos Santos trains with the Nogueira brothers on a regular basis and claims that he could surprise people on the ground as well. The most we've seen of Dos Santos on the mat, though, was in the Gonzaga fight in which he popped right back up to his feet with no problems whatsoever. Nelson is going to want to get this to the mat, but in order to get close for the takedown he's going to have to walk through the heavy hands of JDS, something I don't think he'll be able to do too often. If the fight ends up on the mat, Nelson's girth could certainly help him control JDS on the mat, but I see this fight ending on the feet with a second round TKO in favor of Dos Santos.
Ricardo Almeida vs. Matt Hughes: I'm having a little trouble getting excited for this fight, but it could very well surprise me and end up being much more exciting then I'm giving it credit for. Hughes is a legend of the sport, but hasn't looked great in his last few performances. His loss to Thiago Alves was a beating, and the TKO over Renzo Gracie was simply a kickboxing match between two guys who are not known for their stand up. I saw Almeida fight in person last summer at UFC 101 against Kendall Grove and while he won the decision he had trouble taking Grove down at times and almost got caught in an armbar. Since then, though, Almeida defeated the always tough Matt Brown via RNC back at UFC 111. Almeida will have the reach advantage over Hughes, but I don't believe that he will have a significant advantage in the striking department. Both fighters are known for their mat work, and I think this is where the fight will end up. I look for Almeida to eventually get the fight to the mat, work submission from top control, and dominate the fight. Hughes is no slouch, though, so I could be wrong, but I see Almeida winning the fight either by a commanding decision or a late round submission.
Rafael Dos Anjos vs. Clay Guida: This is just some great matchmaking on Joe Silva's part, I just love this fight. Dos Anjos is another fighter I saw fight live when he dominated Kyle Bradley back in January. We knew that Dos Anjos was a fantastic grappler as evidenced by the win over Terry Etim, but in the Bradley fight he showed that he is certainly talented on the feet as well. Guida is just a cardio machine, and just works at a pace that most guys are not able to keep up with. Wins over Mac Danzig and Nate Diaz showed that he has good takedowns and smothering wrestling, but due to his short reach his striking isn't going to become one of his most effective tools. Losses to Kenny Florian and Diego Sanchez showed that Guida is prone to getting involved in exchanges on the feet that he is not likely to get the better of. In this fight I see Dos Anjos getting the better of Guida on the feet, with it eventually ending up on the mat, which is a place Guida is not going to want to be despite his wrestling. After controlling the stand-up Dos Anjos will once again show his grappling skills with a second round submission win.
Jon Fitch vs. Thiago Alves: Dana White recently stated that the winner of this fight will get the next title shot against the winner of GSP/Koscheck. While I don't hate the idea, I don't exactly love it. Fitch has won every one of his fights since his loss to GSP, so he is probably more deserving of the shot that Alves, especially since this will be Alves's first fight since the one-sided loss to GSP. The problem with Fitch, though, is that he got pounded by GSP in their first fight, and I haven't seen any real significant changes in Fitch that would lead me to believe that a second fight would go any different. Also, Fitch has stated on numerous occasions that he will go to 185 should Koscheck win the title. I'd much rather see the winner of this fight face the winner of Shields/Kampmann to determine the next challenger. Anyways, on to the actual fight at hand. These two fought once before 4 years ago in a fight that was pretty much dominated by Fitch and ended with Fitch winning via up-kick KO. Since then both have enjoyed a lot of success in the UFC, but I think Alves has progressed much more as a fighter than Fitch has. Alves's takedown defense is leaps and bounds better than what it used to be and his muay thai is simply devastating. Fitch can get lit up on the feet as we saw in his fights with GSP and Mike Pierce, and I look for that to happen here. Fitch is notoriously difficult to finish, so I could see this going much like Alves's fight with Koscheck. Alves will defend the takedown, dominate the stand up, and maybe rock Fitch a few times en route to a decision victory.
Anderson Silva vs. Chael Sonnen: It's pretty funny to see how far Chael has gotten himself with his talking considering how it wasn't too long ago that he was tapping out to Paulo Filho and Demian Maia. I will give credit where credit is due, though, and commend Sonnen on his dominating performances over Dan Miller, Yushin Okami, and Nate Marquardt. Sonnen brings with him a strong wrestling background and a good camp with Team Quest. Sonnen isn't much of a finisher, though, which means he'll likely be placed in danger several times over the course of a potential five round fight. While I don't think Anderson Silva is the P4P best in the world (I think he's #2 after GSP) he's probably the most dangerous striker in the world. Even when he's acting like a jerk he has the most precise striking of any fighter in the world, period. I'm hoping that Sonnen lit a fire under Silva's ass with all his shit talking, and we'll see the champion fight like he should. I do believe that Sonnen will get Silva down, but from there I don't think he'll be able to do much else. Silva is a black belt in BJJ and can certainly defend himself off his back as well as work submissions as seen in the win over Travis Lutter. Sonnen will have as about as much success on the mat as Dan Henderson and will eventually succumb to Silva's strikes sometime in the 3rd round.
Junior Dos Santos vs. Roy Nelson: This is probably the fight that I am most excited to see. I've been a big Dos Santos fan ever since he blew away Werdum with a huge uppercut in his UFC debut, and since that win he has remained unbeaten in the UFC with finishes over Stefan Struve, Mirko Cro Cop, Gabriel Gonzaga, and Gilbert Yvel. Nelson won the Ultimate Fighter Season 10 by knocking out fellow cast mate Brendan Schaub and then went on to finish Struve back in March. Nelson is certainly known for his ground game and holds a black belt in BJJ, but as we saw in his last two fights, he has good striking with solid power. That being said, though, I think Dos Santos will have a significant edge on the feet thanks to his reach and his training with Brazilian Olympic boxers. Dos Santos trains with the Nogueira brothers on a regular basis and claims that he could surprise people on the ground as well. The most we've seen of Dos Santos on the mat, though, was in the Gonzaga fight in which he popped right back up to his feet with no problems whatsoever. Nelson is going to want to get this to the mat, but in order to get close for the takedown he's going to have to walk through the heavy hands of JDS, something I don't think he'll be able to do too often. If the fight ends up on the mat, Nelson's girth could certainly help him control JDS on the mat, but I see this fight ending on the feet with a second round TKO in favor of Dos Santos.
Ricardo Almeida vs. Matt Hughes: I'm having a little trouble getting excited for this fight, but it could very well surprise me and end up being much more exciting then I'm giving it credit for. Hughes is a legend of the sport, but hasn't looked great in his last few performances. His loss to Thiago Alves was a beating, and the TKO over Renzo Gracie was simply a kickboxing match between two guys who are not known for their stand up. I saw Almeida fight in person last summer at UFC 101 against Kendall Grove and while he won the decision he had trouble taking Grove down at times and almost got caught in an armbar. Since then, though, Almeida defeated the always tough Matt Brown via RNC back at UFC 111. Almeida will have the reach advantage over Hughes, but I don't believe that he will have a significant advantage in the striking department. Both fighters are known for their mat work, and I think this is where the fight will end up. I look for Almeida to eventually get the fight to the mat, work submission from top control, and dominate the fight. Hughes is no slouch, though, so I could be wrong, but I see Almeida winning the fight either by a commanding decision or a late round submission.
Rafael Dos Anjos vs. Clay Guida: This is just some great matchmaking on Joe Silva's part, I just love this fight. Dos Anjos is another fighter I saw fight live when he dominated Kyle Bradley back in January. We knew that Dos Anjos was a fantastic grappler as evidenced by the win over Terry Etim, but in the Bradley fight he showed that he is certainly talented on the feet as well. Guida is just a cardio machine, and just works at a pace that most guys are not able to keep up with. Wins over Mac Danzig and Nate Diaz showed that he has good takedowns and smothering wrestling, but due to his short reach his striking isn't going to become one of his most effective tools. Losses to Kenny Florian and Diego Sanchez showed that Guida is prone to getting involved in exchanges on the feet that he is not likely to get the better of. In this fight I see Dos Anjos getting the better of Guida on the feet, with it eventually ending up on the mat, which is a place Guida is not going to want to be despite his wrestling. After controlling the stand-up Dos Anjos will once again show his grappling skills with a second round submission win.
Jon Fitch vs. Thiago Alves: Dana White recently stated that the winner of this fight will get the next title shot against the winner of GSP/Koscheck. While I don't hate the idea, I don't exactly love it. Fitch has won every one of his fights since his loss to GSP, so he is probably more deserving of the shot that Alves, especially since this will be Alves's first fight since the one-sided loss to GSP. The problem with Fitch, though, is that he got pounded by GSP in their first fight, and I haven't seen any real significant changes in Fitch that would lead me to believe that a second fight would go any different. Also, Fitch has stated on numerous occasions that he will go to 185 should Koscheck win the title. I'd much rather see the winner of this fight face the winner of Shields/Kampmann to determine the next challenger. Anyways, on to the actual fight at hand. These two fought once before 4 years ago in a fight that was pretty much dominated by Fitch and ended with Fitch winning via up-kick KO. Since then both have enjoyed a lot of success in the UFC, but I think Alves has progressed much more as a fighter than Fitch has. Alves's takedown defense is leaps and bounds better than what it used to be and his muay thai is simply devastating. Fitch can get lit up on the feet as we saw in his fights with GSP and Mike Pierce, and I look for that to happen here. Fitch is notoriously difficult to finish, so I could see this going much like Alves's fight with Koscheck. Alves will defend the takedown, dominate the stand up, and maybe rock Fitch a few times en route to a decision victory.
Anderson Silva vs. Chael Sonnen: It's pretty funny to see how far Chael has gotten himself with his talking considering how it wasn't too long ago that he was tapping out to Paulo Filho and Demian Maia. I will give credit where credit is due, though, and commend Sonnen on his dominating performances over Dan Miller, Yushin Okami, and Nate Marquardt. Sonnen brings with him a strong wrestling background and a good camp with Team Quest. Sonnen isn't much of a finisher, though, which means he'll likely be placed in danger several times over the course of a potential five round fight. While I don't think Anderson Silva is the P4P best in the world (I think he's #2 after GSP) he's probably the most dangerous striker in the world. Even when he's acting like a jerk he has the most precise striking of any fighter in the world, period. I'm hoping that Sonnen lit a fire under Silva's ass with all his shit talking, and we'll see the champion fight like he should. I do believe that Sonnen will get Silva down, but from there I don't think he'll be able to do much else. Silva is a black belt in BJJ and can certainly defend himself off his back as well as work submissions as seen in the win over Travis Lutter. Sonnen will have as about as much success on the mat as Dan Henderson and will eventually succumb to Silva's strikes sometime in the 3rd round.
Thursday, August 5, 2010
MMA In DelaWhere? Support Local MMA
After surviving the two day hell that is the Virginia Bar Exam I headed home to the beaches of Delaware to take a little vacation time and to see some family and friends. When driving to Ocean City, Maryland last weekend I heard an advertisement for cage fights that were going down in Ocean City at the Convention Center. I was pretty excited to hear this, but soon realized that the fights were the following night and I had already made plans that I couldn't break. Thankfully, my disappointment was relieved when I heard ANOTHER advertisement for MMA fights to be held in the town that neighbors my hometown! Primal Fights 5 will be held at the Georgetown Fire Department on August 14th. I checked out the promotion's website which gave a listing of the night's fights as well as a place to order tickets.
Most of the guys on the card only have one or two fights on their records, and some of them will be making their fight debuts on the 14th, Nevertheless, I can't pass up the chance to go check these out. I'm not sure whether we'll see any future UFC stars in the making, but I don't know how any MMA fan could pass up the chance to see some fights for 20 bucks, especially when the event is 10 minutes away. I can only hope this is the beginning of more local MMA in Delmarva as well as maybe spreading to areas over the Bay Bridge like Annapolis, Baltimore, and the DC area. Support local MMA and give the sport the legitimacy it deserves!
Most of the guys on the card only have one or two fights on their records, and some of them will be making their fight debuts on the 14th, Nevertheless, I can't pass up the chance to go check these out. I'm not sure whether we'll see any future UFC stars in the making, but I don't know how any MMA fan could pass up the chance to see some fights for 20 bucks, especially when the event is 10 minutes away. I can only hope this is the beginning of more local MMA in Delmarva as well as maybe spreading to areas over the Bay Bridge like Annapolis, Baltimore, and the DC area. Support local MMA and give the sport the legitimacy it deserves!
Sunday, August 1, 2010
UFC on Versus 2: Post Fight Thoughts
Gomi/Griffin: Man that was one hell of a punch. Griffin can protest all he wants, but he was face down and had his arms flat ... no chance of recovery what so ever. Gomi will always be a threat with that balls out power. Griffin has lost two in a row so he needs to get back on track if he wants to stay relevant in the division. Kurt Pellegrino or Joe Stevenson would be good fights. Gomi vs. Stevenson is something I want to see too.
Ellenberger/Howard: Great performance by Ellenberger. I really thought Howard might pull out the win out of nowhere when he had Ellenberger rocked a couple times, but Jake really used his strong wrestling base to get Howard on his back, keep him there, and get his shots in when he could. Howard's eye was just gross, that was a legit stoppage. I think Ellenberger vs Rory MacDonald makes A LOT of sense and Howard could use a come back fight against a newcomer.
Munoz/Okami: I had Okami winning the first and third rounds, so I'm not sure where Cecil Peoples pulled out his scores. Okami's stand up looks really good, but Munoz was able to answer back with his wild, go for broke hay makers. Is it just me, or does Munoz's set ups and shots look super ugly despite his wrestling pedigree? Okami could be one win away from a title shot, and with Alan Belcher out of his fight with Maia, if Okami is healthy he could step up. Munoz is back to the drawing board so a fight with Brian Stann could be a good way to go.
Jones/Janitor: Wow, enough dicking around, just give Jones some tougher competition. Jones vs Forrest would make a lot of sense and would give Jones that upper level push without putting him in there with someone like Rashad, Rampage, or Little Nog. Tough break for Vlad, but he should be able to bounce back nicely and settle in as a gatekeeper.
Ellenberger/Howard: Great performance by Ellenberger. I really thought Howard might pull out the win out of nowhere when he had Ellenberger rocked a couple times, but Jake really used his strong wrestling base to get Howard on his back, keep him there, and get his shots in when he could. Howard's eye was just gross, that was a legit stoppage. I think Ellenberger vs Rory MacDonald makes A LOT of sense and Howard could use a come back fight against a newcomer.
Munoz/Okami: I had Okami winning the first and third rounds, so I'm not sure where Cecil Peoples pulled out his scores. Okami's stand up looks really good, but Munoz was able to answer back with his wild, go for broke hay makers. Is it just me, or does Munoz's set ups and shots look super ugly despite his wrestling pedigree? Okami could be one win away from a title shot, and with Alan Belcher out of his fight with Maia, if Okami is healthy he could step up. Munoz is back to the drawing board so a fight with Brian Stann could be a good way to go.
Jones/Janitor: Wow, enough dicking around, just give Jones some tougher competition. Jones vs Forrest would make a lot of sense and would give Jones that upper level push without putting him in there with someone like Rashad, Rampage, or Little Nog. Tough break for Vlad, but he should be able to bounce back nicely and settle in as a gatekeeper.
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