UFC 117 Predictions

Well we are just one day away from UFC 117 and will finally get to see the Middleweight Title fight between champion Anderson Silva and challenger Chael Sonnen. There are a lot of great fights on the card, so lets get to it with my predictions.

Junior Dos Santos vs. Roy Nelson: This is probably the fight that I am most excited to see. I've been a big Dos Santos fan ever since he blew away Werdum with a huge uppercut in his UFC debut, and since that win he has remained unbeaten in the UFC with finishes over Stefan Struve, Mirko Cro Cop, Gabriel Gonzaga, and Gilbert Yvel. Nelson won the Ultimate Fighter Season 10 by knocking out fellow cast mate Brendan Schaub and then went on to finish Struve back in March. Nelson is certainly known for his ground game and holds a black belt in BJJ, but as we saw in his last two fights, he has good striking with solid power. That being said, though, I think Dos Santos will have a significant edge on the feet thanks to his reach and his training with Brazilian Olympic boxers. Dos Santos trains with the Nogueira brothers on a regular basis and claims that he could surprise people on the ground as well. The most we've seen of Dos Santos on the mat, though, was in the Gonzaga fight in which he popped right back up to his feet with no problems whatsoever. Nelson is going to want to get this to the mat, but in order to get close for the takedown he's going to have to walk through the heavy hands of JDS, something I don't think he'll be able to do too often. If the fight ends up on the mat, Nelson's girth could certainly help him control JDS on the mat, but I see this fight ending on the feet with a second round TKO in favor of Dos Santos.

Ricardo Almeida vs. Matt Hughes: I'm having a little trouble getting excited for this fight, but it could very well surprise me and end up being much more exciting then I'm giving it credit for. Hughes is a legend of the sport, but hasn't looked great in his last few performances. His loss to Thiago Alves was a beating, and the TKO over Renzo Gracie was simply a kickboxing match between two guys who are not known for their stand up. I saw Almeida fight in person last summer at UFC 101 against Kendall Grove and while he won the decision he had trouble taking Grove down at times and almost got caught in an armbar. Since then, though, Almeida defeated the always tough Matt Brown via RNC back at UFC 111. Almeida will have the reach advantage over Hughes, but I don't believe that he will have a significant advantage in the striking department. Both fighters are known for their mat work, and I think this is where the fight will end up. I look for Almeida to eventually get the fight to the mat, work submission from top control, and dominate the fight. Hughes is no slouch, though, so I could be wrong, but I see Almeida winning the fight either by a commanding decision or a late round submission.

Rafael Dos Anjos vs. Clay Guida: This is just some great matchmaking on Joe Silva's part, I just love this fight. Dos Anjos is another fighter I saw fight live when he dominated Kyle Bradley back in January. We knew that Dos Anjos was a fantastic grappler as evidenced by the win over Terry Etim, but in the Bradley fight he showed that he is certainly talented on the feet as well. Guida is just a cardio machine, and just works at a pace that most guys are not able to keep up with. Wins over Mac Danzig and Nate Diaz showed that he has good takedowns and smothering wrestling, but due to his short reach his striking isn't going to become one of his most effective tools. Losses to Kenny Florian and Diego Sanchez showed that Guida is prone to getting involved in exchanges on the feet that he is not likely to get the better of. In this fight I see Dos Anjos getting the better of Guida on the feet, with it eventually ending up on the mat, which is a place Guida is not going to want to be despite his wrestling. After controlling the stand-up Dos Anjos will once again show his grappling skills with a second round submission win.

Jon Fitch vs. Thiago Alves: Dana White recently stated that the winner of this fight will get the next title shot against the winner of GSP/Koscheck. While I don't hate the idea, I don't exactly love it. Fitch has won every one of his fights since his loss to GSP, so he is probably more deserving of the shot that Alves, especially since this will be Alves's first fight since the one-sided loss to GSP. The problem with Fitch, though, is that he got pounded by GSP in their first fight, and I haven't seen any real significant changes in Fitch that would lead me to believe that a second fight would go any different. Also, Fitch has stated on numerous occasions that he will go to 185 should Koscheck win the title. I'd much rather see the winner of this fight face the winner of Shields/Kampmann to determine the next challenger. Anyways, on to the actual fight at hand. These two fought once before 4 years ago in a fight that was pretty much dominated by Fitch and ended with Fitch winning via up-kick KO. Since then both have enjoyed a lot of success in the UFC, but I think Alves has progressed much more as a fighter than Fitch has. Alves's takedown defense is leaps and bounds better than what it used to be and his muay thai is simply devastating. Fitch can get lit up on the feet as we saw in his fights with GSP and Mike Pierce, and I look for that to happen here. Fitch is notoriously difficult to finish, so I could see this going much like Alves's fight with Koscheck. Alves will defend the takedown, dominate the stand up, and maybe rock Fitch a few times en route to a decision victory.

Anderson Silva vs. Chael Sonnen: It's pretty funny to see how far Chael has gotten himself with his talking considering how it wasn't too long ago that he was tapping out to Paulo Filho and Demian Maia. I will give credit where credit is due, though, and commend Sonnen on his dominating performances over Dan Miller, Yushin Okami, and Nate Marquardt. Sonnen brings with him a strong wrestling background and a good camp with Team Quest. Sonnen isn't much of a finisher, though, which means he'll likely be placed in danger several times over the course of a potential five round fight. While I don't think Anderson Silva is the P4P best in the world (I think he's #2 after GSP) he's probably the most dangerous striker in the world. Even when he's acting like a jerk he has the most precise striking of any fighter in the world, period. I'm hoping that Sonnen lit a fire under Silva's ass with all his shit talking, and we'll see the champion fight like he should. I do believe that Sonnen will get Silva down, but from there I don't think he'll be able to do much else. Silva is a black belt in BJJ and can certainly defend himself off his back as well as work submissions as seen in the win over Travis Lutter. Sonnen will have as about as much success on the mat as Dan Henderson and will eventually succumb to Silva's strikes sometime in the 3rd round.