UFC 118: Fight Predictions

With my internship starting this week I haven't had too much free time and the blog was temporarily placed on the back burner. I apologize to my readers and I will definitely will work harder to keep it updated. I want to do an entry talking about the last Strikeforce card as well as the epic Santiago/Misaki rematch. For now I'll just do my predictions for UFC 118 since the card is going down tonight.

Nate Diaz vs. Marcus Davis: This will be Diaz's second fight at 170 after a dominant performance over Rory Markham back at UFC 111. Diaz quickly finished Markham by TKO and looked good despite the fact that he's been fighting at lightweight. I was curious to see if Diaz would add a little more mass since the last fight, and he definitely looks a little bigger. Diaz's striking is good as it is pretty similar to his brother's, but I don't think he's nearly as accurate nor as powerful as Nick. Davis, on the other hand, is a former professional boxer and has KO power to go with his quick hands and solid footwork. Diaz will absolutely have the advantage should the fight go to the ground thanks to his training at Cesar Gracie's camp. Davis has shown that he's capable of staying alive on the mat, but he's going to keep this one standing at all costs. Davis will also have to deal with Diaz's reach advantage and pawing jab, so Davis will want to keep his distance, come in, get his shots in, and then get out fast. I'm a big fan of Marcus Davis, but there are just too many things he's going to have to deal with in this fight. Between Diaz's jab and overall striking game that is continually improving and his slick submission skills I've got to go with Diaz by submission late in the fight.

Kenny Florian vs Gray Maynard: This fight will determine who gets the next shot at the lightweight title. Florian is coming off victories over Clay Guida and Takanori Gomi after a submission loss to BJ Penn back at UFC 101. Maynard is undefeated thus far in his career and most recently defeated Roger Huerta and Nate Diaz. Since the loss to Penn Florian has looked great. His striking is seriously some of the best in the lightweight division. The jab utilized in the Gomi fight was especially impressive and all the while Florian remains exceptional on the ground as shown by his most recent wins coming by submission. Maynard's go to is obviously his wrestling and that is what he is going to want to use here as Florian's weakness is strong wrestlers as evidenced by the Sherk fight. Maynard is also capable of negating a fighter's submission game off their back as seen with his wins over Jim Miller and Rich Clementi. Maynard also has a win over the current lightweight champ Frankie Edgar. The difference in this fight will definitely be in the stand up department. I've continually heard people talk about how good Maynard is getting on the feet and how he has all this power behind his strikes. Personally, I thought Maynard didn't look anything special on the feet against Diaz and the only time he has knocked anybody out was back in 2007 against Joe Veres. I just don't see Florian losing this fight as I think he'll use his superior striking to take a commanding decision win.

Demian Maia vs. Mario Miranda: Maia was originally set to face Alan Belcher at the next Fight Night, but Belcher had to drop out due to a detached retina and may never fight again. Maia was then scheduled to fight at UFC 118 and Mario Miranda was brought in as his opponent. Maia hasn't fought since the decision loss to Anderson Silva back at UFC 112, but prior to that Maia had only one career loss, which was a KO defeat to Nate Marquardt. Most of Maia's wins have come by submission due to the fact that he's likely the best BJJ practitioner in the UFC. Miranda debuted in the UFC against rising start Gerald Harris and lost by KO. Miranda rebounded, though, with a dominant TKO win over David Loiseau. Maia has shown that he's working on his standup as seen in the win over Dan Miller, but Miranda is likely going to have the advantage on the feet. Maia is great at dragging guys down to the ground and has shown that he has some crafty takedown ability as well. I see this going a lot like Maia's other fights have gone with him tying up with Miranda, dragging him down, and notching another submission win.

James Toney vs. Randy Couture: I love how this is being built up as MMA vs. Boxing when this a MMA fight. Toney keeps making his comments about how he's going to KO Couture, and while it is certainly possible, I don't think it is likely. Couture has been KO'd before Toney has not had much time at all to work on every skill needed to be successful in MMA, let alone in the UFC against a legend of the sport. All this talk of Toney subbing King Mo and giving Dean Lister on the ground is absolute BS. Toney is out of shape, well past his prime, and is clearly just trying to make a buck. Toney's only chance of winning this fight is clipping Randy on the feet. I see Randy pressing Toney up against the cage, dumping him on his head, and working ground and pound until the fight is called. I'd love to see Randy choke Toney to sleep, but I feel like the beating he'll give him on the ground will be more than enough.

BJ Penn vs. Frankie Edgar: The first fight between these two was definitely not the most exciting fight I've ever seen, but I still thought it was entertaining due to how close it was. I scored the fight for Edgar, but the judge who scored all five rounds for him was out of his mind. Going into this fight I'm not 100% sure Frankie Edgar has actually faced BJ Penn yet. In their first fight Penn looked tired and worn and was apparently suffering from a pretty bad sinus infection. Prior to that Penn absolutely dominated Florian and Diego Sanchez and looked like an absolute animal. Frankie shocked a lot of people with his win over Sean Sherk and has shown that he's more than just a wrestler thanks to his striking ability. Even with his continually improving striking and stellar wrestling I just don't think it will be enough to take a healthy, motivated, and angry BJ Penn. I say Penn takes this with a submission in the third or fourth round.