UFC 119 Predictions

Well I'm still not sure how to edit the video Billy and I recorded and I can't figure out how to make it into several shorter videos so that I could put them on youtube. I'll talk to my techy friend and hopefully we can figure something out before the video is irrelevant. Anyways, here are my picks for this Saturday's PPV.

Melvin Guillard vs. Jeremy Stephens: This is my early pick for fight of the night. I actually called this fight after Stephen's win over Sam Stout. Guillard then called out Stephens after his win over Waylon Lowe. Thankfully Joe Silva was listening and set up this fight that is going to be an absolute slugfest. Both guys are known primarily for their striking, so don't expect to see too much, if any, grappling in this fight. Guillard is probably the better technical striker and will likely have a little bit of a reach advantage. What Stephens lacks in technique he makes up for with brutal KO power. In Stephen's last fight, he faced another technical striker in the Tompkins trained Sam Stout and dropped him several times. His power is just a game changer, and after seeing Guillard get dropped by a Joe Stevenson jab, it makes me wonder how he'll fair with a much better striker and much harder hitter. Guillard hits much harder than Stout, though, so he could stun Stephens as well. Guillard is also the better wrestler, and if the fight isn't going his way, Guillard has the ability to take Stephens down and steal some rounds. As much as I like Stephens and think he could certainly catch Melvin and put him out cold, I think Guillard's reach, smoother striking, and ability take the fight to the mat if he needs to gives Guillard the win by unanimous decision.

Evan Dunham vs. Sean Sherk: After Dunham submitted Efrain Escudero at Fight Night 20, I was excited to see Dunham progress as a fighter. When I then heard that he was being put in a fight against Tyson Griffin, I was worried that Dunham was getting pushed too hard too fast, but I was totally wrong. Dunham is certainly among the new guard at 155 as has shown that he is able to hang with the UFC's elite. Sean Sherk on the other hand is coming off a loss to current champ Frankie Edgar, which was well over a year ago. Ring rust is a real issue here, and I think it will play a major role in this fight. Sean Sherk's bread and butter is his wrestling, but as we saw in the Edgar fight, Sherk seems to be content to strike despite his short reach and limited head movement. Dunham will obviously hold a major reach advantage and is also just a better striker. Dunham will have to deal with Sherk's wrestling and takedowns, but Dunham is good off of his back and is completely capable of taking Sherk down himself. Sherk is a talented fighter, but I think the long lay off and Dunham being much more well-rounded will lead to a Sherk loss by decision or late submission.

Matt Serra vs. Chris Lytle: This is a rematch from the finale of the comeback season of the Ultimate Fighter. Serra won via split decision in a fairly lackluster fight. While the first fight was certainly not much to write home about, I think this fight will be much much different. Lytle has boxing experience, but he has shown that he has much more to offer in a fight. Lytle's last two wins have come via spectacular submission, showing that Lytle is extremely talented on the mat. Serra is coming off a KO win over Frank Trigg in a fight he showed that despite is small stature, his compact build allows him to put a lot of power behind his punches. Serra is a talented grappler, but he seems favor a stand up fight and in the Hughes fight, Serra wasn't able to do much once Hughes put him on his back. I'm leaning towards Lytle via submission because I think he'll find a way to get Serra on his back and out grapple him. I would not be the least bit surprised, though, if Serra was able to clip Lytle and put him off his game. Either way I'm expecting a great fight.

Ryan Bader vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira: After the Jason Brilz fight, this is a great fight to see if Little Nog is the real deal who just had a bad fight, or if he's got a major weakness that happens to be Bader's strength, wrestling. Nog showed in the fight against Luis Cane that he is an extremely dangerous striker thanks to his training with the Brazilian Olympic Boxing Team. Nog is also a talented grappler as one would expect with anyone who spends any sort of time training with Big Nog. The Brilz fight, though, showed that Nog can be taken down, put on his back, and kept there. Yes, Nog was able to sweep Brilz at one point, but that was one move in a three round fight that I scored for Brilz. Bader is a solid, strong wrestler who is also not afraid to throw heavy heavy hands. If Bader can win this fight he will certainly prove that he belongs in the upper tier of 205 and if Nog can win he'll show the casual fans that he deserved the hype he got when he came into the UFC and destroyed Cane. That being said, I'm going to have to go with Bader via unanimous decision. I think Bader is a better wrestler and striker than Jason Brilz and I also think he will be much stronger than Nog. Nog is the crisper striker, but I think Bader is smart enough to realize that he doesn't want to get into too many exchanges on the feet, will take Nog down, and work three rounds of top control and ground and pound.

Frank Mir vs. Mirko Cro Cop: The main event for UFC 119 was originally supposed to be the rematch between Mir and Big Nog, but Cro Cop stepped in after Big Nog was forced to back out due to injury. This isn't likely to garner a lot of PPV buys, but I still think it's a pretty cool fight. Cro Cop is coming off a win over Pat Barry while Mir is fighting for the first time since he was destroyed by Shane Carwin. Cro Cop has won 4 of his last 5 fights with the loss coming to Junior Dos Santos, but even in winning performances we've seen Cro Cop be tentative with his striking. After coming back from knee surgery it seems as though he's a little tentative and was even dropped a couple of times in the Barry fight. I'm hoping Cro Cop really lets his punches and kicks go so that he'll have more of a chance to keep this fight competitive. Mir has shown in both the Kongo and Nog fights that he has improved drastically with his striking to go along with his stellar BJJ. Mir doesn't have the best takedowns, though, and if Cro Cop is able to put on a performance of old, then he'll have excellent takedown defense anyways. Mir has been finished by guys not named Carwin or Lesnar as well as we saw that he can be knocked down and out in fights with Brandon Vera and Pe De Pano. For Cro Cop to win this fight, though, he's going to have to perform like the Cro Cop of old, and unfortunately I think those days have passed. I look for the fight to stay on the feet for the most part, but I think at some point during a scramble Mir will lock in a submission (likely a choke) and get the win.